Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1310.5 | -16.3 | -1.23% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2135.2 | -51.6 | -2.36% |
| Oil (WTI) | 78.44 | -1.3 | -1.65% |
| LIBOR | 0.461 | -0.001 | -0.22% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.51 | 0.250 | 0.30% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.62% | -0.06% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 181.4 | 0.2 |
A soggy tape to match a soggy morning here on Wall Street. There is no real news driving futures down, just a sense of malaise coming out of watching the European slow-motion train wreck. Euro sovereigns are slightly wider, while the US 10-year is up about a point. MBS are higher as well.
New Home Sales came in at 369k, well ahead of expectations of 347k. That said, we are still running at levels below the bottoms of recessions going back to the 1960s and well below the average 700k pace from 1963 to the bubble burst.
We have a lot of economic data this week, with April Case-Schiller and Consumer Confidence coming out tomorrow, Durable Goods and pending home sales Wed, Initial jobless claims and final Q1 GDP numbers on Thurs, and Personal Income / Spending numbers on Fri. We also have a European summit (something like #18) and will potentially hear the fate of Obamacare as well.
We are in earnings pre-announcement season, where companies who are going to miss their quarters disclose it to the market. Earnings season will officially begin in two weeks with Alcoa’s numbers.
Treasury yields will hit 1% by year end, says CNBC. Certainly that is a possibility if nothing is done about Taxmageddon or if Europe implodes. Simon Johnson is worried about how US banks will handle a European implosion, and even introduces a new risk we can wring our hands over: Dissolution Risk.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index declined to -.45 in May from +.08 in April, which indicates slowing economic growth. Positive numbers indicate the economy is growing above trend, while negative numbers indicate the economy is growing below trend. The 3 month moving average, decreased to -.34 from -.13 in May. If the 3 month moving average falls below -.7, it typically means a recession has already begun.
$9.3 billion. That is the amount of money people lose per year responding to those ubiquitous Nigerian email scams. To put that number in perspective, that is roughly what GM made last year and accounts for 11% of Nigeria’s GDP.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Despite my cynicism, I’m still a bit surprised at the sheer crassness of this particular appeal:
“Got a birthday, anniversary, or wedding coming up?
Let your friends know how important this election is to you—register with Obama 2012, and ask for a donation in lieu of a gift. It’s a great way to support the President on your big day. Plus, it’s a gift that we can all appreciate—and goes a lot further than a gravy bowl.”
http://www.barackobama.com/news/entry/the-obama-event-registry?source=blog_ems
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Brent
New Home Sales came in at 369k, well ahead of expectations of 347k. That said, we are still running at levels below the bottoms of recessions going back to the 1960s and well below the average 700k pace from 1963 to the bubble burst.
It’s really tough to look at the chart and not be worried. A pretty gloomy Monday.
and goes a lot further than a gravy bowl.
What’s that supposed to mean? Luckily for me birthday, anniversary and Mother’s Day are all behind me…………….I’d rather just have a thoughtful card, thank-you very much.
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Gotta be drier in NYC than here in Tampa. Something like 8 inches of rain here over the weekend.
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do they mean gravy boat?
amateurs. those in the know take the gravy train.
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I guess there’s never enough gravy in the bowl? Silly. I do hate that though, when I don’t make enough gravy…………….haaahaaahaaa.
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[/b] It’s really tough to look at the chart and not be worried. A pretty gloomy Monday.[/b]
For me, it makes me bullish. We are not replenishing the inventory at all. Booms start when inventory needs to be increased. While we probably are not there yet, a run rate this low cannot last.
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You have to be more creative to raise money when you don’t simply just rent a ballroom and charge $10k a head. I find the fundraising raffle a dinner e-mails cheesy and slightly embarrassing for them, but nobody is going to unilaterally disarm a money source.
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“when you don’t simply just rent a ballroom and charge $10k a head.”
Are you saying that Obama doesn’t do that? He had one in the W Hotel — right across the street from the White House.. for $40,000 a head.
http://www.wcvb.com/news/politics/Obama-to-bring-in-2-million-in-Wednesday-fundraisers/-/9848766/12507336/-/1xdata/-/index.html
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Brent, if you’re bullish then I’m encouraged. Are you sure though that “a run rate this low cannot last”? This one doesn’t seem to be responding quite normally.
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I didn’t he doesn’t do that as well. But by most metrics (number of donors, average donation size), Romney donors tend to be richer. They aren’t as likely to need a Hibernian-Americans For Obama coffee mug.
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Before the bubble, the annual household creation rate was something like 1.5 million or so. That number has dropped due to something like 377k due to the recession as the poor economy forces people to take roommates or move back in with parents. I just don’t consider that to be a “new normal.” The kids will move out eventually. Roommates eventually get married. In the meantime, potential households are being created while actual households are not. When you consider the shadow inventory of 3-4MM units, an underbuilding of new housing, and a buildup of something like 1MM potential households per year since the bubble burst, you can see that this just isn’t sustainable.
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Thanks Brent, that is somewhat encouraging.
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sorry i misunderstood your meaning, yellow.
OT: I’ve got a predictions post up.
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lmsinca: Matt Taibbi & Yves Smith on Bill Moyers:
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/taibbi-joins-yves-smith-on-moyers-20120625
Thought you might be interested. I haven’t watched it yet.
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Thanks jnc. I heard about it but didn’t have the link. I’ll watch it after work tonight.
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Count down to doomsday – Soros says we have three days left:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/25/george-soros-germany_n_1623810.html
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