Morning Report 6/19/12

Posted on June 19, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
SPU2 Comdty S&P Futures 1332.5 -5.0 -0.37%
SX5E Index Eurostoxx Index 2166.7 -14.5 -0.66%
CL1 Comdty Oil (WTI) 82.89 -1.1 -1.36%
US0003M Index LIBOR 0.468 0.000 0.00%
DXY Index US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.79 0.164 0.20%
USGG10YR Index 10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.57% -0.01%
RPX.CP28 Index RPX Composite Real Estate Index 180 0.3

Markets are slightly higher as we await the FOMC meeting on Wed. Overseas, Spain sold 3.04 billion euros worth of bills, higher than its 3 billion target. Euro sovereign yields are lower across the board, while US Treasury yields are flattish. MBS are flat. As we head into the end of the quarter, we will start to hear from companies who are going to miss earnings estimates.

Housing starts came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 708k. This was below April, but was 29% over May 2011’s rate. Building Permits, which is a leading indicator for starts came in at 780k. Overall, it shows the housing market is on the mend, although new construction activity is focusing more on multi-family as opposed to single units. Housing’s contribution to GDP growth is back to slightly positive, and it is still well, well below historical averages.

Interestingly, the average housing start number for the past 10 years has been a 1.3 million annual rate.  The average annual rate from 1959 – mid 2002 was around 1.5 million / year. Pre-crisis, housing formation numbers had been running at around 1.2 million / year. This certainly helps explain the nascent demand in multi-fam construction as those people have to live somewhere, but it also suggests that a lot of the overbuilding from the bubble has been worked off.

Chart:  Housing starts 1959-Present

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