Does It Matter If You Don’t Believe In Evolution?

It’s not often I see an ATiM discussion echoed nearly word for word in the bigger blogosphere, but an item in Andrew Sullivan’s Dish gave me an odd sense of deja vu. He had reacted in horror to a Gallup poll which showed that 46% of Americans believe God created man as-is. Another 32% believe in what I call ‘guided evolution’ where there is divine influence. Only 15% believe that God had nothing to do with us looking as we do.

Sullivan’s alarm is stated thusly:

I’m not sure how many of the 46 percent actually believe the story of 10,000 years ago. Surely some of them know it’s less empirically supported than Bigfoot. {snip} I simply do not know how you construct a civil discourse indispensable to a functioning democracy with this vast a gulf between citizens in their basic understanding of the world.

Kevin Drum of Mother Jones rolled his eyes by noting that the 46% number is essentially unchanged since the question has been tracked and it is hardly a concern.

The fact is that belief in evolution has virtually no real-life impact on anything. That’s why 46% of the country can safely choose not to believe it: their lack of belief has precisely zero effect on their lives. Sure, it’s a handy way of saying that they’re God-fearing Christians — a “cultural signifier,” as Andrew puts it — but our lives are jam-packed with cultural signifiers.

Basically, Drum is saying that denying evolution is the price of admission to a not very exclusive club and most people are able to compartmentalize the cognitive dissonance it creates when relying on medicine or agriculture or anything that requires the actual mechanisms of evolution to work.

And lots of smart people don’t ‘believe’ in evolution (and I put ‘believe’ in air quotes because I personally ‘believe’ that is as silly as not believing in gravity) and still do quite well in their professional lives. I heard from colleagues of a prominent engineering professor who was a Young Earther, that is, he thought the Grand Canyon was created from backwash from Noah’s flood. I went to a public lecture of his and his thoughts on thermodynamics and the like were very mainstream and enlightening. Only at the end did he make a slightly veiled cryptic comment about having to conserve energy because we were stewards of the Earth.

Saying that God made Man in an afternoon and then used some spare parts to make Woman is a harmless fairy tale demonstrating a reliance on faith over a trust in reason. Evolution makes intellectual sense because it explains observable phenomena such as there being so many different types of plants and animals, far more than would fit on a raft 300 cubits long.

Not believing in evolution has very little effect on tax policy or road funding or the vast majority of governmental issues. It’s only when the theology drips into policy that I grow concerned. Jame Watt famously saw harvesting trees on a non-sustainable basis as no problem since he was imminently expecting The Rapture and then it wouldn’t matter any more. And we don’t want to even begin opening the can of worms of how religious dogma has affected the debate over reproductive rights.

So if someone wants to believe in folk tales on the origin of the world, I can only shake my head and shrug. To me these are people that in their devotion to their beliefs refuse to separate the moral and ethical authority that have been the traditional realm of religion from the mythmaking mumbo jumbo which science has supplanted. For some “God said it. I believe it. That settles it.” is all they need. For me, I expect a higher standard of intellectual rigor when deciding whose opinions I trust, I but don’t require it when selecting a plumber.

Morning Report 6/12/12

Vital Statistics:

 

Last

Change

Percent

S&P Futures 

1303.7

3.4

0.26%

Eurostoxx Index

2145.2

7.5

0.35%

Oil (WTI)

82.29

-0.4

-0.50%

LIBOR

0.468

0.000

0.00%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

82.53

0.013

0.02%

10 Year Govt Bond Yield

1.61%

0.02%

 

RPX Composite Real Estate Index

178.9

0.2

 

Markets are a touch higher this morning after yesterday’s sell-off. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans (who Jim Bianco called an uber-dove) said he supports more stimulus. The 10-year yield is back up to 1.61% and MBS are down about 1/4 of a point.

The National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Index ticked down in May. It came in at 94.4, vs 94.5 in the previous month, which is a historically low level. 51% of owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months and nearly 3/4 of those reported few or no qualified applicants for positions. The report has a pretty scathing indictment of Washington, with 22% of the respondents indicating taxes as the single most important problem. 20% reported poor sales, and 19% reported government red tape.

Excerpt from the report: “The Index did not go down by much, that’s the good news. The May reading is still at recession levels from an historical perspective, consistent with very anemic Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and employment growth. The calculus of spending decisions requires an estimate of future sales, tax rates, interest rates and credit availability, labor costs, health care costs, regulatory compliance costs, all of which are very uncertain, meaning that owners cannot make reliable estimates of what will happen to these factors. Most of this uncertainty is coming out of Washington, D.C. Owners can’t attach probabilities to outcomes or even decide which outcomes to consider.

The amount of political manipulation and evasion to guide the spending of billions of taxpayer dollars is disturbing to owners. Sixty (60) percent of those surveyed said now is a bad time to expand their businesses; one-in four of those owners cited political uncertainty as the main reason, second only to concerns about a weak economy. Investing in jobs or plant and equipment will remain at “maintenance” level until this is resolved.”

 

I would be surprised if this doesn’t become campaign fodder.

study from the Federal Reserve regarding changes in US family finances has been getting a lot of discussion – the median net worth of families has dropped nearly 40% from 2007 to 2010, putting them back where they were in 1992. Most of this is housing-driven, though stocks, student loans, and a drop in incomes are playing a part too.  A generation’s worth of wealth creation has been destroyed in 3 years. Of course much of that wealth was illusory, but it does speak to why confidence has been so lousy – the reverse wealth effect. Hopefully housing is in fact bottoming, which will reverse this effect. 

The WSJ addresses in interesting question:  if the shadow inventory is so high, why is the inventory of homes actually for sale at normal levels?  It turns out (unsurprisingly) that negative equity is the reason, but also the influx of professional investors scooping up inventory in the hardest-hit areas.  It also explains why prices are rising the most at the bottom end of the market – they have the most negative equity, so supply is the most constrained.

Chart:  NFIB Small Business Optimism Index:

 

 

Fool’s Errand?

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/06/11/why-the-bailout-in-spain-wont-work/?nl=business&emc=edit_dlbkam_20120612