The Debt Star

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

 

 

Last

Change

Percent

S&P Futures

1399.1

-2.9

-0.21%

Eurostoxx Index

2286.9

-3.3

-0.14%

Oil (WTI)

103.05

-2.2

-2.1%

LIBOR

0.466

0.000

0.00%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

79.17

-.349

0.44%

10 Year Govt Bond Yield

1.92%

-0.02%

 

RPX Composite Real Estate  Index

173

-0.4

 

 

Markets are lower this morning on disappointing economic data. Initial Jobless Claims came in at 365k, which was better than expectations, however last week was revised upward to 392k. Bonds and MBS are up slightly.

 

Chicago-based job placement firm released its monthly job cuts report this morning, which tracks announced job cuts. US-based employers announced a total of 40,559 job cuts in April, up 11% from last year.

 

The Institute for Supply Management released its April Non-Manufacturing Report this morning, which showed the pace of expansion has slowed. The index dropped to 53.5 from 56.  A number above 50 indicates expansion.

 

Today is the first Thursday of the month, which means retailers are reporting same store sales. Generally, they were disappointing, with The Gap, Costco, and Target leading the charge.

Cradle to Grave

From the Obama campaign: Life of Julia

I’ll be honest. This makes my stomach churn. Every one of life’s moments, made possible by the benevolence of President Obama.

Poor Julia. Obama wants her dependent on him her entire life.

Update: Apparently this has taken off. Here’s the WSJ and The Atlantic

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

 

 

Last

Change

Percent

S&P Futures

1395.1

-5.3

-0.38%

Eurostoxx Index

2289.35

-17.3

-0.76%

Oil (WTI)

105.05

-1.1

-1.04%

LIBOR

0.466

0.000

0.00%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

79.17

-.349

0.44%

10 Year Govt Bond Yield

1.92%

-0.02%

 

RPX Composite Real Estate  Index

173

-0.4

 

Apologies for the late report.  I am working in the San Diego office this morning and have been having technology issues.

 

Markets are generally weaker this morning on the back of weak unemployment numbers in Germany and a disappointing ADP report. Factory Orders were down 1.5%, a post-crisis low, and are showing a definite downward trend. Bonds and mortgage backed securities were stronger.

 

The New York ISM report showed that business conditions remain strong in the New York City area, although they slowed slightly from the March pace. The April index came in at 61.2 vs 67 in March. An ISM number above 50 indicates expansion, while below indicates contraction.

 

Beazer Homes reported a disappointing first quarter loss. That said, Beazer did report a marked improvement from Q111.  New orders were up 29%, closings were up 49%, backlog was up 39%, and average price was up 4%. They remain “hopeful, but cautious” about the prospects of a sustained market recovery. Beazer is concentrated in the South and Southeast.

 

The Treasury is considering issuing floating rate notes. Part of the rationale is that it would decrease borrowing costs today, plus it would help insulate the government from funding hiccups if it has to roll over a lot of debt at once. Still, it seems strange for the government to consider floaters with interest rates so low. It is akin to taking out an ARM to save a handful of basis points on your mortgage payment.

Early Evening Morning Post (with a few bits and pieces)

Vital Statistics:

Close Change Percent
S&P Futures 1405.82 7.91 .57%
Eurostoxx Index 2306.69 .26 .01%
Oil (WTI) 106.29 1.29 1.23%
LIBOR 0.466 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 78.83 .01 0.02%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.9435% .0298%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index ? ?

Sorry for the delay in getting this posted in Brent’s absence. Busy day for me today, although the markets themselves weren’t that busy, what with most of Europe out today on holiday for May Day. Strong ISM and Construction data did move rates a bit higher today and equities rallied, but the afternoon was pretty slow.

Davis Polk’s latest monthly analysis of the progress that the regulatory agencies are making on Dodd-Frank. One notable statistic: regulators have missed two-thirds of the 221 already passed deadlines for rule making. And we still have 158 to go. It’s tempting to say that D/F is the worst legislation passed in the last 100 years, but unfortunately its not even the worst legislation passed during the last 4.

In non-financial news, Jonah Goldberg’s new book, Tyranny of Cliches: How Liberals Cheat in the War of Ideas came out today. I’ve read the intro and am reminded of some of the discussions we’ve had here.

We’ve debated here whether or not Elizabeth Warren is a hypocrite, but apparently there’s a new debate brewing over whether or not she’s a Native American. (This, BTW, is a bit of a bugaboo for me. Isn’t everyone who was born in the US a native American?)

Top ten revelations about bin Laden garnered from the raid on his compound. Most interesting: he was a porn addict. Least surprising: he thought Biden was unprepared to be president. (Who doesn’t?)

Never, ever date your own dentist.

Health Care Costs Flattening. Why?

The New York Times has an article on the the slowdown and leveling off of health care cost, as a percentage of GDP. The economy is undoubtedly a factor, as people simply delay care. But consumer-directed plans might also be a factor.

Many experts — and the Medicare and Medicaid center itself — point to the explosion of high-deductible plans, in which consumers have lower premiums but pay more out of pocket, as one main factor. The share of employees enrolled in high-deductible plans surged to 13 percent in 2011 from 3 percent in 2006, according to Mercer Consulting.

That means thousands of consumers with an incentive to think twice about heading to the doctor. One study by the RAND Corporation found that health spending among people who shifted into a high-deductible plan dropped 14 percent — though the study also found that enrollees cut back on some care that tended to save money in the long run, like vaccinations.

The article notes that there also haven’t been any big “blockbuster” drugs released in the past few years.

I think that makes the case for high-deductible and/or consumer-directed care. Patients that are insulated from the true cost of care will consume more. Shift costs their way and they consumer less.

Across the silos of care the only constant is the patient. Policymakers are being on “patient-centeredness,” but that typically means some way of monitoring and tracking patients. I think these can be a useful tool to complement, but not replace, what ultimately has to be the patient’s responsibility.

Unfortunately, the ACA makes the high-deductible plans more expensive and subjects them to the same requirements to offer “free” preventive care and the like, thus defeating the purpose.