Morning Report

Posted on April 25, 2012 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1378.8 8.7 0.63%
Eurostoxx Index 2319.8 35.8 1.57%
Oil (WTI) 104.4 0.8 0.77%
LIBOR 0.466 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.16 -0.068 -0.09%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.99% 0.01%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 173.5 -0.3  

 

Markets are higher this morning on Apple’s earnings. Hard to believe a half-a-trillion dollar company could move up 10% in a day, but there you go. Bonds and MBS are lower as we await the FOMC decision this afternoon. No one anticipates a change in policy, but the market will focus on clues about QEIII. 

 

Speaking of the Fed, Krugman has some advice for Ben Bernake. Hint:  He’s not doing enough.

 

Durable Goods orders fell 4.2% YOY in March, the biggest drop in 3 years. Ex transportation, they fell 1.1%. This was far below expectations. There was also a marked buildup in inventories in the last 6 months, which portends a manufacturing slowdown. There has been nothing in the economic data in the last couple of months that indicates the economy is accelerating – everything points to a deceleration. This is mainly due to overseas weakness. The UK is officially in recession, while Europe and China are slowing.

 

Mortgage applications fell last week after a huge jump the week before. The 10-year spent all of last week below 2%, so maybe the refi activity is starting to dry up – meaning everyone who can refi at 3.75% has already done so.

 

Lender Processing Services has released its first look for March foreclosures and delinquencies. The total US loan delinquency rate is just over 7%, which is down almost 9% YOY. The number of properties in foreclosure totaled 2.06MM, the number 90D+ was 1.6MM and 30D+ was 3.5MM, for a total of 5.6MM delinquent. The full report will be released on May 1.

 

FWIW, Mark Zandi thinks the bottom in real estate is in. Bob Schiller isn’t so sure.

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