Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1402.3 -0.9 -0.06%
Eurostoxx Index 2455.6 -21.7 -0.88%
Oil (WTI) 102.66 -0.4 -0.35%
LIBOR 0.4682 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.015 0.011 0.01%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.20% -0.01%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 170.51 0.4

Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news in the US. Bonds and mortgages are up slightly. Construction Spending and ISM reports are out at 10:00 this morning. There was some disappointing economic data out of Europe – Eurozone unemployment was 10.8%, which suggests Europe is in a recession. France, Germany, and Italy Purchasing Managers Indices all came in below 50, indicating manufacturing conditions are in a decline. The Japanese Tankan survey was disappointing as well.

The Washington Post had a long article about rentals over the weekend. Big investors are using proprietary algos to analyze and manage rental properties. Oaktree, Carrington, Starwood, Apollo, and Zell are getting into this business. Private equity fund Waypoint reported a return of 8% to 9% in Q4 buying foreclosed properties and renting them. Interesting. RTWT.

Bill Gross’s Total Return Fund gained 2.83% in Q1, outperforming the benchmark by 2 percentage points on an aggressive bet on mortgages. He increased the mortgage exposures from 38% in September to 52% at the end of February. This is a bet on either (a) QEIII or (b) The fed replacing Operation Twist with a more aggressive stance on mortgage purchases. In other words, mortgage rates have been pushed lower by two big behemoths – PIMCO and the Fed – aggressively buying mortgage backed securities. If the Fed doesn’t provide an exit for Bill (either by not doing QEIII or not replacing Operation Twist with a mortgage support program), then mortgage rates could back up in a hurry. Something for lock desks to think about..

10 Responses

  1. Worth a read – Matt Taibbi’s take on the recent Dallas Fed Report on TBTF Banks:

    “Push to End Too-Big-To-Fail Goes Mainstream
    POSTED: March 29, 12:35 PM ET
    By Matt Taibbi”

    “Moreover, he talks about an inherent perversion of the system that has led to a two-tiered regulatory environment: a top tier where the misdeeds of TBTF banks are routinely ignored and unpunished (“virtually nobody has been held accountable for their roles in the financial crisis,” he writes), and a lower tier where small regional banks are increasingly forced to swim upstream against “the law’s sheer length, breadth and complexity,” leading to a “massive increase in compliance burdens.”

    To me, the dichotomy outlined by Rosenbaum helps explain the appearance of two seemingly contradictory major protest movements: a Tea Party movement fulminating against a repressive, overweening regulatory regime, and the Occupy movement railing against an extreme laissez-faire system bordering on lawlessness.

    The situation described by Rosenbaum explains how both movements could be right. Just as Tea Party leaders argue, there really has been an enormous flowering of new regulatory burdens in recent decades. It’s just that one group of actors has been given de facto license to ignore those burdens, while everyone else has not. Thus two movements protesting lawlessness on the one hand and an excess of laws on the other – that doesn’t necessarily strain the imagination.”

    “The conservative argument on TBTF is beginning to blend in with, and become indistinguishable from, the progressive argument. You can say the current system is private enterprise corrupting government, or you can call it repressive government corrupting private enterprise, but it increasingly amounts to the same thing.”

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/with-blistering-dallas-fed-report-ending-too-big-to-fail-goes-mainstream-20120329

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  2. ” . You can say the current system is private enterprise corrupting government, or you can call it repressive government corrupting private enterprise, but it increasingly amounts to the same thing.”

    Whomever can sell that idea to both groups will be an unstoppable political force. People who want to protect the status quo of excessive disparity between the 1% and the rest should be very concerned about the possibility of those groups combining.

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  3. Thanks, jnc. That was a good read.

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  4. Is it that the crony capitalists get to ignore certain regulations so much as those regulations favor them? I tend to view it as the latter, acting essentially as a barrier to entry of the market. Also, I see no way around regulatory capture other than less regulation. How many Watchers, watching the Watchers can you reasonably have?

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  5. “as those regulations favor them”

    that how I’ve always used the term

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  6. “Is it that the crony capitalists get to ignore certain regulations so much as those regulations favor them?”

    It also encompasses the ability to consistently settle various cases with the government in a predictable way without having to admit or deny guilt.

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  7. “bsimon1970, on April 2, 2012 at 10:27 am said:

    ” . You can say the current system is private enterprise corrupting government, or you can call it repressive government corrupting private enterprise, but it increasingly amounts to the same thing.”

    Whomever can sell that idea to both groups will be an unstoppable political force.”

    It could have been Sarah Palin, before she imploded.

    “Some of Sarah Palin’s Ideas Cross the Political Divide
    By ANAND GIRIDHARADAS
    Published: September 9, 2011”

    “She made three interlocking points. First, that the United States is now governed by a “permanent political class,” drawn from both parties, that is increasingly cut off from the concerns of regular people. Second, that these Republicans and Democrats have allied with big business to mutual advantage to create what she called “corporate crony capitalism.” Third, that the real political divide in the United States may no longer be between friends and foes of Big Government, but between friends and foes of vast, remote, unaccountable institutions (both public and private). ”

    “The Tragedy of Sarah Palin

    From the moment Sarah Palin’s acceptance speech electrified the Republican convention, she was seen as an unbending, hard-charging, red-meat ideologue—to which soon was added “thin-skinned” and “vindictive.” But a look at what Palin did while in office in Alaska—the only record she has—shows a very different politician: one who worked with Democrats to tame Big Oil and solve the great problem at the heart of the state’s politics. That Sarah Palin might have set the nation on a different course. What went wrong?

    By Joshua Green
    June 2011 ATLANTIC MAGAZINE ”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2011/06/the-tragedy-of-sarah-palin/8492/

    It also represents some of Elizabeth Warren’s appeal to certain people on the right:

    “Elizabeth Warren on ‘socialism for rich people’

    Rod Dreher
    October 12th, 2011”

    “HINOJOSA: Okay. But—but if they’re saying, “Look this is capitalism.”

    WARREN: No, this is not capitalism. That’s the whole point. This is socialism. This is the part where they’re using taxpayer guarantees and taxpayer support in order to eek out some kind of private gain. And this is just wrong.

    HINOJOSA: So, it’s—it’s socialism for—socialism for rich people?

    WARREN: For rich people. And, you know, I just gotta say I’m tired of that one.”

    http://www.theamericanconservative.com/dreher/2011/10/12/elizabeth-warren-on-socialism-for-rich-people/

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  8. Worth a read. I still believe that most Americans define unnecessary medical care as care being given to someone else. When it’s your health and someone else is paying for it, cost is no object.

    “When more expensive medicine is better medicine
    Posted by Sarah Kliff at 11:17 AM ET, 04/02/2012

    The theory behind the health reform law is that you can deliver better care at lower cost. Support for that idea comes from a robust body of research — most prominently the Dartmouth Atlas project — which suggests that a decent amount of health care spending is unnecessary. Hospitals can get the same (if not better) outcomes, the thinking goes, if they focused on providing just the most cost-effective treatments.

    But sometimes, more expensive care is also better care. That’s what a team of health-care economists have found in a new NBER paper, which looked at Medicare patients in New York. It found that, all other things being equal, those treated in higher-spending hospitals had mortality rates 20 to 30 percent lower than those treated in low-cost facilities.

    Those findings, in some ways, contradict the Dartmouth Atlas research, which has suggested that more can be less.

    “We find that more intensive intervention is associated with better outcomes when compared with less intensive interventions,” said Joseph Doyle, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Sloan School of Management and lead author of the study. “We would say that this is a cautionary tale, that we cannot necessarily cut spending and expect quality to increase.””

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/when-more-expensive-medicine-is-better-medicine/2012/04/02/gIQA51CwqS_blog.html#pagebreak

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  9. OT, but worth a read:

    “Bruce Springsteen’s SXSW Keynote Address
    By Rolling Stone
    March 28, 2012 11:20 AM ET”

    http://www.rollingstone.com/music/news/exclusive-the-complete-text-of-bruce-springsteens-sxsw-keynote-address-20120328

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  10. Palin might have had the potential, had her national introduction gone differently. I’d guess she’s now proof of the adage that you never get a 2nd chance to make a first impression.

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