Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1334.9 -4.2 -0.31%
Eurostoxx Index 2498.6 -16.6 -0.66%
Oil (WTI) 96.93 -0.9 -0.93%
LIBOR 0.5233 -0.004 -0.71%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.432 0.490 0.62%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.92% 0.00%

Slow news day today.  Stock futures are lower in spite of the fact that the Giants won last night.  No, I don’t buy that theory.  Or this one.  Or, for that matter this one.  The last one will cause anyone who believes in weak-form market efficiency to tear their hair out.

It looks like a foreclosure deal is getting closer.  25 billion will be the price tag.  Of course Ally is owned by the government, so in some sense, this is an informal mortgage relief plan from the federal government using taxpayer funds.  I have to imagine that this will be earnings-neutral as the banks will simply apply the principal reductions to loans they have already written down.  Who knows where banks are actually marking these things, but a home equity loan on an underwater house is basically worthless.

Can we officially say that Super Bowl halftime shows have jumped the shark?

Lost in the European issue is the fact that Denmark is having a credit crunch after their real estate bubble burst in 2007.  This will be interesting to watch because a lot of policy wonks and academics respect the Danish system of mortgage banking and some have suggested the Danish system as a model for a post Fan and Fred world.

16 Responses

  1. Brent, it seems to me that Greece is now close to a day to day situation. If that is the case, will there be rumor based volatility in the market for awhile?

    If Greece “fails”, you’ve mentioned the banks with the most exposure and you’ve talked about effects on American interests before. Could you review, please?

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  2. I don’t think a lot of US banks hold Greek debt. IIRC the banks with the most exposure were French.

    I guess you can say the US banks have exposure to the hedge funds that bought Greek debt, but the hedge funds didn’t pay 100 cents on the dollar and they have probably hedged the risk through CDSs.

    If a major French bank blows up, then yes there is exposure, but blowups in the French banking sector are common occurrence, and the government always bails them out. I remember interviewing for a convertible bond trading position at BNP Paribas in the mid 90s. I asked the head of the desk what their hurdle rate was. He replied “Money is free, n’est-ce pas?”

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  3. Shark jumping would be a welcome addition to a halftime show. The Madonna extravaganza makes me nostalgic for the understated simplicity of Michael Jackson in his prime.

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  4. Thanx, Brent.

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  5. Same sex marriage to get federal bailout?

    Blankfein to Speak Out for Same-Sex Marriage Lloyd C. Blankfein, the chief of Goldman Sachs who has become a lightning rod for Wall Street critics, might seem an unlikely advocate for same-sex marriage. But his credentials – a public figure in a conservative industry – could make him a powerful voice for that cause.

    I report, you decide.

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  6. But his credentials – a public figure in a conservative industry – could make him a powerful voice for that cause.

    What can Blankfein do/say that Dick Cheney, Ted Olson or Ken Mehlman haven’t already? Most regular people have no idea who three of the four of those guys are, much less what they are famous for.

    Meh. Unless Blankfein is actively going to campaign for SSM.

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  7. Blankfein to Speak Out for Same-Sex Marriage Lloyd C. Blankfein, the chief of Goldman Sachs

    With friends like those, who needs enemies?

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  8. OT: Worth a read. If buying a house in Washington DC is now considered “racist”, then the term “racism” is so broadly used as to now be meaningless.

    “Invasion of the gentrifiers
    What do they think racism is anyway?

    Carl Foster FEB 3”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/gentrification-in-black-and-white/2012/01/26/gIQA2qmqnQ_story.html

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  9. I found multiple aspects of the WP article to be irritating. Particularly the apparent assumption that all white people are hostile to black people. I’m curious as to his reaction to a young, white professional moving into his neighborhood and if maybe, just maybe, that colours their response.

    BB

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  10. jnc:

    Re DC, it’s a 20 year old story that the WAPO hauls out every now and again.

    I slept in today, after being consumed by worrying that Madonna might have broken a hip during her performance. Watching it It was like the first Reagan Mondale debate in 1984, when you were trying to speed up the clock, before something really bad happened.

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  11. More blowback from the Fed’s interest rates calls:

    “Investors Wary of Stocks Are Flocking to Junk Bonds”

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/46283487

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  12. ” “Investors Wary of Stocks Are Flocking to Junk Bonds” ”

    Hm. May be time to rebalance. Corporation bonds have been very good to me for the last 3 years.

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  13. bsimon:

    You’re un-American. buy mortgages to support those underwater!

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  14. ” buy mortgages to support those underwater!”

    If I had the money I’d be buying out some of those underwater people.

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