European Contagion

There is quite a lot in the news about the Euro crisis. I’m skeptical of claims that a Euro implosion would be disastrous for the U.S. economy. First off, Greece being ejected from the Euro doesn’t mean the end of the Euro. Just that Greece was brought in with an overvalued currency and with the full knowledge that the books were cooked. The U.K. was ejected from the Euro’s predecessor 20 years ago. That event propelled a dramatic economic recovery from disastrous interventions to stabilize its currency. It’s also the primary reason Labor was in government from 1997 to 2011. Even with larger knock on effects, the Euro zone is not a significant growth market for U.S. exports and an economic slow down might have a knock-on effect for materials prices. The U.S. performance this year tracked fairly well with oil. I’m likely wrong about this, but I don’t see this as our greatest challenge.

The most interesting piece that I read was a graphic in today’s Post illustrating U.S. exports to Europe. As I expected, exports to the southern tier countries aren’t that great. I expected the bigger EU countries (U.K., France, Germany) to make up the lion’s share. The shocker to me is that the largest market for us is Benelux (Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg), accounting for roughly $55B of U.S. exports per year, well ahead of the U.K. at $42B. One might quibble with me combining the three countries, but our Benelux exports rival those to Germany and France combined ($58B). For the record, here’s the top 10.

Country Imports Exports
Canada $237B $210B
Mexico $196B $146B
China $292B $74B
Japan $92B $49B
United Kingdom $38B $42B
Germany $72B $36B
Korea, South $43B $33B
Netherlands $18B $32B
Brazil $22B $32B
Hong Kong $3B $27B

Incidentally, there is only one country that shows zero imports or exports to the U.S.–Yemen. Unless you included postal bombs.

BB

Bits & Pieces (Rainy Monday Edition)

It’s a rainy Monday, after a rainy Sunday and a rainy Saturday. I’m tired of rain now.

The local Hastings (a combo bookstore, DVD rental, game rental, and other stuff type store) is going out of business. A book caught my eye, I read a few pages, decided I wanted it. Stayed up most of last night to finish reading it. It was a good read: Oblivion, by Peter Abrahams. Guy is a good suspense novelist. More than half the novel is conducted by a private investigator who is recovering from a stroke, and has to piece together not just a case he had practically solved before the stroke, but piece together what the case even was. Stayed up too late reading it. But found an author I will probably read another book from.

I don’t think that’s happened for fiction since I randomly selected a Iain Pears novel, An Instance of the Fingerpost, because I liked the name. I recommend both books.

***

The Universe is older than we thought. Maybe.

Good news. Sugar cures cancer! Apparently, you can’t consume it all in the form of Butterfingers.

Apparently, Antarctic ice originally formed when CO2 levels were much higher than they are currently.

Assuming everything we know about atmospheric CO2 and arctic ice 34 million years ago is accurate. Might not be. 


Was this guy arrested for looking out his window?

— KW

The Honorable Lindsey Graham


Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) recently spoke in favor of the National Defense Authorization Act and its provision that allows for indefinite detention of American citizens that are deemed to be terrorist. If you have to ask what classifies you as a terrorist, that sounds like terrorist talk to me. Graham’s justification is that the “homeland” is a battlefield.

I didn’t realize that I live in a battlefield. If that’s the case, then I want to mount a belt feed machine gun on my front porch. And a want an M4.

Anyway, here’s Graham: “It is not unfair to make an American citizen account for the fact that they decided to help Al Qaeda to kill us all and hold them as long as it takes to find intelligence about what may be coming next,” Graham said. “And when they say, ‘I want my lawyer,’ you tell them, ‘Shut up. You don’t get a lawyer.’”

So all it takes to be detained without access to counsel is for the government to deem you a terrorist. They don’t have to prove anything. And Graham, and apparently quite a few, see this as a positive. So maybe I won’t “opt out” of the scan the next time I’m at the airport, because clearly only terrorists have something to hide or a reason to object. The Christian Science Monitor has more.

And don’t let Obama supporters tell you he’s on the right side of this issue. His veto threat is over an executive power issue, not a civil liberties one. He wants to determine the who, what, when, where and why of the detainment without congressional input. That the detainment will occur is not at issue.

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1261.3 17.8 1.43%
Eurostoxx Index 2379.1 36.630 1.56%
Oil (WTI) 102.34 1.380 1.37%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 78.375 -0.250 -0.32%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.10% 0.07%

Markets are rallying on the new Italian austerity plan proposed by Mario Monti. Hit proposal includes 30 billion euros of emergency economic measures funded by property taxes, a tax on luxury goods, and a plan to tie pensions to worker contributions. Italian markets are reacting favorably, with the Mibtel up 3% and Italian government bond yields down 59 basis points to 6.09%. The S&P futures are up 18 points pre-market.

Merger Monday is back with a big deal in the cloud computing space: SAP AG is buying SuccessFactors (SFSF) in a $3.3 billion deal. They paid a handsome premium – 52% over Friday’s close. Whenever someone like SAP buys someone, the follow on question is “What will Larry do?” – meaning Larry Ellison of Oracle. The early betting seems to be Taleo (TLEO) which is up 16% pre-market.

As predicted Herman Cain threw in the towel over the weekend and endorsed Newt Gingrich. From what I hear on the Wall Street money raising front, Newt doesn’t even register. It is all going to go to Romney. That money sat on the sidelines hoping that Chris Christie would run, but has now coalesced around Romney. Lots of big fund raisers coming up for Romney. Given the implosion of all of his rivals, he has managed to stay pretty clean and hasn’t had to spend money yet.

When a Judge Nixes a Settlement on Principle…

he may buy a trial he did not want.  Usually the parties know what they are doing when they settle.  A Federal Judge should be very cautious in rejecting settlements.  Citigroup may turn out to be a case in point.

The SEC concedes its case against Citigroup is weak.

Climate Audit

Hat tip to Ace of Spades.

Climate Audit seems like it might be my new favorite Global Warming Skeptic site. A good place to peruse if you ever wonder why anybody would ever be A Denier™.

Just something to ponder before Brent gives us the Morning Report.

Bites & Pieces (Pink Soup)

My husband convinced the girls when they were very young that he invented the color pink, and to prove it he made a pot of pink soup.  This is an old family recipe for beet soup handed down through his family by word of mouth so you may have to adjust the ingredients a little to your own taste.  If you can get beyond the bright fuchsia color you’ll discover a wonderful and unusual taste.

Ingredients:

3–4 lb Pork Butt
3-4 fresh medium to large beets
½ onion diced
2 stalks celery diced
¼ cup celery tops chopped
2-3 carrots sliced thinly on the diagonal
4 medium potatoes, peeled and diced
1 15oz can diced tomatoes
5-6 cups stock (vegetable or chicken)
3-4 bay leaves
Salt, pepper, celery salt (to season pork)
1 pint heavy cream
3 TBS (or to taste) distilled white vinegar

Directions:

Brown seasoned pork in heavy soup pan or dutch oven over medium heat until browned on all sides. Be extra careful not to burn the pan as it will affect the taste of the soup.  Cover with about 2 cups of water and some of the stock just till covered in liquid.  Add bay leaves, cover and cook over low heat or in the oven for 2 ½ to 3 hours until tender.

Remove meat from liquid and set aside to cool and chop to add back into soup.  Peel and cut beets into julienne strips and add to stock and bring to a high simmer on top of stove, cook for about 15 minutes.  Add onions, celery, carrots and more stock.  Add chopped pork back into pan and then add potatoes and canned tomatoes.  Let all simmer until beets are tender.  It should be a chunky soup with more ingredients than broth at this point but you can add a little more broth if you need to, remember though you’re also adding more liquid in the form of cream.  Add a little more salt or celery salt if necessary for taste.  When veggies are done, turn off heat and add cream until it has a nice creamy look and consistency; you can taste the richness and know if you’ve got enough in there or not.  It should take most of the pint.  Add vinegar a tablespoon at a time to taste.  Enjoy.

If you know me at all you’ll know I also make a vegetarian version but since we have mostly meat eaters here I’ll just leave that one to your imagination.

For Marks Eyes Only

Just kidding.  But I did come across a piece this morning that made Marks avatar, with his curly white hair, immediately jump out at me.  I’ll either have to vote for a Republican Presidential candidate for the first time in 40 years or “flip flop” on a comment if this happens.  I don’t know if I can really vote for someone so conservative or not, but if Huntsman will really take on the TBTF banks and promise to choose Simon Johnson as his Secretary of the Treasury (see what I did there), I’d at least be open to the idea, all bravado aside.

I’m not sure which statement stands out the most — Michele Bachmann’s assertion that the American Civil Liberties Union runs the Central Intelligence Agency; Cain trying to name the president of “Ubeki-beki-beki-beki-stan-stan”; Gingrich claiming that a luxury cruise around the Aegean gave him experience to deal with Greece’s foreign debt crisis; Rick Santorum stating that he wants to go to war with China; or Mitt Romney asserting that if Barack Obama is re-elected, “Iran will have a nuclear weapon,” but if Romney is elected, “They will not have a nuclear weapon.” My favorite is Bachmann (again) telling an Iowa crowd that if she is elected, she will close the U.S. Embassy in Tehran. Only one problem: the U.S. hasn’t had an embassy in Iran since 1980, when 52 Americans were held hostage for 444 days — something you would expect Bachmann, a member of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, to know. 

There’s plenty of entertainment in this crowd and most of the conservatives I have respect for are willing to admit that Republicans are struggling to find that electable candidate.  Even some of our conservatives here are predicting an Obama win, regardless of almost 9% unemployment and a 43% approval rating, when they consider the alternatives.  There’s speculation now that even Newt Gingrich could beat Romney in the primaries, hard to believe, but there it is.

When you also consider Romney’s close connections to Wall Street at a time when left and right alike are ready to storm the castle, it becomes difficult, if not impossible, to imagine Romney winning states like Michigan. Ohio might have been feasible had he not full-throatedly flip-flopped to support the anti-collective bargaining referendum, which Ohio voters rejected by a nearly two-to-one margin. And with Romney suggesting we let the housing market hit bottom as a solution to the housing crisis, it’s hard to imagine victory in places like Nevada, where more than 1 in 10 families with children have lost their homes.

So, what’s the answer? I believe it is staring Republicans in the face: Jon Huntsman. He’s not just the most experienced candidate — he’s also the most electable Republican.

Huntsman has been dismissed from the start — largely because he worked for “the enemy,” as Obama’s first ambassador to China. Yet Huntsman is no less a conservative than Mitt Romney. He is pro-life, pro-business, and deeply religious; he even favors Congressman Paul Ryan’s budget plan. He still holds that global warming is real, a position Romney has retracted.

Unlike Romney, however, Huntsman has the chops to be president. An ambassador three times over, a wildly popular two-time governor who cut taxes while creating jobs, and a global businessman, Huntsman is the only one standing who can negotiate with the Chinese. As Joe Klein recently observed, his ideas are resolutely conservative, and his economic vision “is the closest any candidate has come to diagnosing the real problems at the heart of the Great Recession — and proposing a reasonable path forward.” 

Some of this stuff truly bothers me about Huntsman, Ryan’s budget plan, really?  I just don’t know if I can go there.  And I don’t have a lot of faith in campaign promises.  I’ve been at this game long enough to know that even the best intentions run up against the reality show.
  

He is the kind of candidate independent voters fawn over. His quirks — he rides Harleys, played in a rock band, speaks Mandarin, and dropped out of high school before earning his general equivalency degree — helped him get re-elected governor in Utah in 2008 with a 58-point margin of victory, even as Republicans fell around him. Were he to win the nomination, he would be difficult for the president to attack. After all, if President Obama thought Huntsman unqualified, would he really have appointed him to the most important ambassadorship in the world?  

Jeeze, he’s more like Sarah Palin than Sarah Palin is.  Harleys and a GED.  But he’s apparently smart enough to pick up Mandarin and serve out two terms as Governor of Utah.  Michi, help he out here.

Here you go Mark, a little hope for the Holidays.  Please don’t hold me to my previous comments though.


This same time last election, John McCain was trailing badly in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. He even took out a personal loan just to keep his campaign afloat. And yet, when Mitt Romney lost the Iowa caucus to a candidate who wasn’t really a national contender, the opening for McCain became clear, he won New Hampshire, and eventually the nomination.

It is not hard to imagine the same Mitt Romney losing to the same kind of far-right candidate in Iowa a month from now, giving Huntsman the window he’ll need. It may not seem like it now: but my prediction is that Romney will lose in Iowa, Huntsman will win in New Hampshire and eventually be the Republican nominee for President.

*****The comments above are not meant to be a political endorsement*****

Bits & Pieces (TGIF Edition)

Brawndo! It has was plants crave!

Idiocracy was a fine movie. A huge flop, but a fine movie.

*******************

A Must-See Website!


http://www.hermancain.com/wfhc

Leon Cooperman’s open letter to Obama

Saying what a lot of people have been thinking….

OPEN LETTER TO THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA from Leon Cooperman.

November 28, 2011

President Barack Obama
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, D.C. 20500

Dear Mr. President,

It is with a great sense of disappointment that I write this. Like many others, I hoped that your election would bring a salutary change of direction to the country, despite what more than a few feared was an overly aggressive social agenda. And I cannot credibly blame you for the economic mess that you inherited, even if the policy response on your watch has been profligate and largely ineffectual. (You did not, after all, invent TARP.) I understand that when surrounded by cries of “the end of the world as we know it is nigh”, even the strongest of minds may have a tendency to shoot first and aim later in a well-intended effort to stave off the predicted apocalypse.

But what I can justifiably hold you accountable for is your and your minions’ role in setting the tenor of the rancorous debate now roiling us that smacks of what so many have characterized as “class warfare”. Whether this reflects your principled belief that the eternal divide between the haves and have-nots is at the root of all the evils that afflict our society or just a cynical, populist appeal to his base by a president struggling in the polls is of little importance. What does matter is that the divisive, polarizing tone of your rhetoric is cleaving a widening gulf, at this point as much visceral as philosophical, between the downtrodden and those best positioned to help them. It is a gulf that is at once counterproductive and freighted with dangerous historical precedents. And it is an approach to governing that owes more to desperate demagoguery than your Administration should feel comfortable with.

Just to be clear, while I have been richly rewarded by a life of hard work (and a great deal of luck), I was not to-the-manor-born. My father was a plumber who practiced his trade in the South Bronx after he and my mother emigrated from Poland. I was the first member of my family to earn a college degree. I benefited from both a good public education system (P.S. 75, Morris High School and Hunter College, all in the Bronx) and my parents’ constant prodding. When I joined Goldman Sachs following graduation from Columbia University’s business school, I had no money in the bank, a negative net worth, a National Defense Education Act student loan to repay, and a six-month-old child (not to mention his mother, my wife of now 47 years) to support. I had a successful, near-25-year run at Goldman, which I left 20 years ago to start a private investment firm. As a result of my good fortune, I have been able to give away to those less blessed far more than I have spent on myself and my family over a lifetime, and last year I subscribed to Warren Buffett’s Giving Pledge to ensure that my money, properly stewarded, continues to do some good after I’m gone.

My story is anything but unique. I know many people who are similarly situated, by both humble family history and hard-won accomplishment, whose greatest joy in life is to use their resources to sustain their communities. Some have achieved a level of wealth where philanthropy is no longer a by-product of their work but its primary impetus. This is as it should be. We feel privileged to be in a position to give back, and we do. My parents would have expected nothing less of me.

I am not, by training or disposition, a policy wonk, polemicist or pamphleteer. I confess admiration for those who, with greater clarity of expression and command of the relevant statistical details, make these same points with more eloquence and authoritativeness than I can hope to muster. For recent examples, I would point you to “Hunting the Rich” (Leaders, The Economist, September 24, 2011), “The Divider vs. the Thinker” (Peggy Noonan, The Wall Street Journal, October 29, 2011), “Wall Street Occupiers Misdirect Anger” (Christine Todd Whitman, Bloomberg, October 31, 2011), and “Beyond Occupy” (Bill Keller, The New York Times, October 31, 2011) – all, if you haven’t read them, making estimable work of the subject.

But as a taxpaying businessman with a weekly payroll to meet and more than a passing familiarity with the ways of both Wall Street and Washington, I do feel justified in asking you: is the tone of the current debate really constructive?

People of differing political persuasions can (and do) reasonably argue about whether, and how high, tax rates should be hiked for upper-income earners; whether the Bush-era tax cuts should be extended or permitted to expire, and for whom; whether various deductions and exclusions under the federal tax code that benefit principally the wealthy and multinational corporations should be curtailed or eliminated; whether unemployment benefits and the payroll tax cut should be extended; whether the burdens of paying for the nation’s bloated entitlement programs are being fairly spread around, and whether those programs themselves should be reconfigured in light of current and projected budgetary constraints; whether financial institutions deemed “too big to fail” should be serially bailed out or broken up first, like an earlier era’s trusts, because they pose a systemic risk and their size benefits no one but their owners; whether the solution to what ails us as a nation is an amalgam of more regulation, wealth redistribution, and a greater concentration of power in a central government that has proven no more (I’m being charitable here) adept than the private sector in reining in the excesses that brought us to this pass – the list goes on and on, and the dialectic is admirably American. Even though, as a high-income taxpayer, I might be considered one of its targets, I find this reassessment of so many entrenched economic premises healthy and long overdue. Anyone who could survey today’s challenging fiscal landscape, with an un- and underemployment rate of nearly 20 percent and roughly 40 percent of the country on public assistance, and not acknowledge an imperative for change is either heartless, brainless, or running for office on a very parochial agenda. And if I end up paying more taxes as a result, so be it. The alternatives are all worse.

But what I do find objectionable is the highly politicized idiom in which this debate is being conducted. Now, I am not naive. I understand that in today’s America, this is how the business of governing typically gets done – a situation that, given the gravity of our problems, is as deplorable as it is seemingly ineluctable. But as President first and foremost and leader of your party second, you should endeavor to rise above the partisan fray and raise the level of discourse to one that is both more civil and more conciliatory, that seeks collaboration over confrontation. That is what “leading by example” means to most people.

Capitalism is not the source of our problems, as an economy or as a society, and capitalists are not the scourge that they are too often made out to be. As a group, we employ many millions of taxpaying people, pay their salaries, provide them with healthcare coverage, start new companies, found new industries, create new products, fill store shelves at Christmas, and keep the wheels of commerce and progress (and indeed of government, by generating the income whose taxation funds it) moving. To frame the debate as one of rich-and-entitled versus poor-and-dispossessed is to both miss the point and further inflame an already incendiary environment. It is also a naked, political pander to some of the basest human emotions – a strategy, as history teaches, that never ends well for anyone but totalitarians and anarchists.

With due respect, Mr. President, it’s time for you to throttle-down the partisan rhetoric and appeal to people’s better instincts, not their worst. Rather than assume that the wealthy are a monolithic, selfish and unfeeling lot who must be subjugated by the force of the state, set a tone that encourages people of good will to meet in the middle. When you were a community organizer in Chicago, you learned the art of waging a guerilla campaign against a far superior force. But you’ve graduated from that milieu and now help to set the agenda for that superior force. You might do well at this point to eschew the polarizing vernacular of political militancy and become the transcendent leader you were elected to be. You are likely to be far more effective, and history is likely to treat you far more kindly for it.

Sincerely,

Leon G. Cooperman
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer