Bits & Pieces (Monday Night Open Mic)

How to cope with severe weather events, thanks to anthropogenic climate change? Get yourself a Black Umbrella.

Get dumb and bang a wizard. Snoop Dogg informs on the advantages of wind power.
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Given recent news about ClimateGate 2.0, it’s interesting to discuss where “the truth” is in highly charge or highly emotional issues. And a recent Freakonomics podcast does just that.

A few observations from the podcast: being smarter is not actually helpful to arriving at the truth, and that you’re simply not going to make any progress if you characterize your opposition as dumb, or anti-science, or incapable if thinking for themselves. Also, conspiracy theorists will always believe “the truth is out there”.

Also: the Washington Post says dire global warming forecasts are now off the table. O-kay.

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I watched It’s a Wonderful Life again this Thanksgiving. Gosh, I love that movie. God bless Jimmy Stewart, and Lionel Barrymore.

Sense and Nonsense, and David Frum

I’m going to post this with the same kind of pre-excuse that I don’t allow associates to use on the job:  typed up quickly to throw it on the table. I find Frum’s ongoing project to redefine conservatism and marginalize Republicans confused and flawed (and, frankly, annoying) in so many ways that it is hard to capture them. But it is an important topic, and I’m in a busy time at work, so this is the best I’ve got right now.


David Frum continues to make noise about the supposed Republican lurch into radicalism, speaking as what he claims is the lone (or nearly lone) voice of authentic conservatism, much to the delight of liberals, Democrats, and other sworn enemies of conservatism. His latest apologia, fittingly dispensed in the pages of the New York Times, claims that the Republican Party lost touch with reality and abandoned conservative positions across the board.

Poppycock. Frum, whatever he once was or believed, is speaking the gospel of Big Government, Progressive Republicanism, the sort that was justly described back in the days of authentic conservatism for which he longs as an acquiescence in the role of “tax collector for the welfare” state, and defeatist “go-along-get-along” politics. This is conservatism as Liberalism Lite. In Frum’s world, conservatives do not stand for a worthwhile, positive vision but serve only to throw themselves on the gears of the modern state in hopes of slowing its advance down the road to serfdom–just a little. They should not be combative or even assertive but should know their place as the perennial losers fighting an eternal rear-guard action. We should accept defeat nobly and with dignity. Surrender, in other words.

How do we know that it is Frum who either abandoned conservatism or never believed it in? It is as simple as reading his own words and what he identifies as badges of “conservative” governance. He complains that “It was not so long ago that Texas governor Bush denounced attempts to cut the earned-income tax credit as balancing the budget on the backs of the poor,” while today GOP thought leaders criticize a system under which nearly half of earners pay no income taxes. But George Bush was never a conservative. He never claimed to be. And an income tax system that excuses nearly half of income earners from taxes never was a conservative policy. It is more nearly the opposite of a conservative tax policy, particularly in the era of the modern welfare state.

Frum also inveighs: “In 2000, candidate Bush routinely invoked churches, synagogues, and mosques. By 2010, prominent Republicans were denouncing the construction of a mosque in lower Manhattan as an outrageous insult.” A few did. But does Frum really expect us to pretend that 911 did not happen, and that it was not the dominant event of the past decade?

“In 2003, President Bush and a Republican majority in Congress enacted a new prescription-drug program in Medicare. By 2011, all but four Republicans in the House and five in the Senate were voting to withdraw the Medicare guarantee from everybody under age 55.” Does Frum really expect anyone to believe that this massive new entitlement was a “conservative” innovation? Real conservatives opposed it at the time, as they always would have. Why and how did Frum come to define conservatism as the policy agenda of George Bush, rather than recognizing his old boss for what he was and is, a nonconservative? Was Medicare Part D part of the Contract with America? Or the Reagan platform? Or was George Bush a deviation from Republican governance since Reagan? And is this condemnation of Republican efforts to rein in Medicare costs really contained in the very same column in which he condemns them for profligate spending? Really, David? This is your best?

“Today, the Fed’s pushing down interest rates in hopes of igniting economic growth is close to treason, according to Governor Rick Perry, coyly seconded by TheWall Street Journal. In 2000, the same policy qualified Alan Greenspan as the greatest central banker in the history of the world, according to Perry’s mentor, Senator Phil Gramm.”

Let’s just overlook whether Phil Gramm spoke for all conservatives in 2000 or whether Rick Perry does today. Is Frum again unaware of any difference in economic conditions in 2000, before the tech bubble burst, let alone before 911, and the current economic situation?

“Today, stimulative fiscal policy that includes tax cuts for almost every American is socialism. In 2001, stimulative fiscal policy that included tax cuts for rather fewer Americans was an economic-recovery program.” We should be allowed to expect more integrity in argument than this from Frum. He’s factually wrong, to begin with; the Bush tax cuts cut taxes for virtually everyone who pays taxes, and took many completely off the rolls. But, that aside, which Republicans have said that tax cuts included in Obama’s stimulus package were socialism? We’ll go ahead and mark you down as a doctrinaire Keynesian who treats lower taxes purely as “stimulative” demand manipulation, David. But please don’t try to tell us that your position is the conservative one.

Frum massages history in strange ways. He says that Republicans are respsonsible for all our current problems because “Republicans held more power for longer than at any time since the twenties,” while completely excusing Democrats for any responsibility even for their current failures. Let’s see now, George Bush, a moderate liberal domestic President, had slight majorities in Congress for part of his eight year term. In the Senate, he scarcely ever had a majority, and Democrats decisively took over both houses in 2006. By contrast, Democrats had decisive control in 2009-10. Just as Bill Clinton did until he overreached. Just like Jimmie Carter had. And Johnson. But while Democrats have enjoyed much greater–indeed incomparable–control, they have no responsibility in Frum’s world. Only Republicans do.

And at the same time that he condemns Republicans for the results of their statecraft under George Bush, he holds up that period as the reflection of true conservatism that he claims to represent. Did I miss something here, David?

I’m not even sure what to make of statements like this one:

“The Bush years cannot be repudiated, but the memory of them can be discarded to make way for a new and more radical ideology, assembled from bits of the old GOP platform that were once sublimated by the party elites but now roam the land freely: ultralibertarianism, crank monetary theories, populist fury, and paranoid visions of a Democratic Party controlled by ACORN and the New Black Panthers.” [I don’t know how to block quote.]

Notice the ease with which he adopts the scornful rhetorical style of a partisan liberal, and equally how dismisses doubts about the Democratic Party of Obama. (Conservatives are crackpots for having raised alarms over Obama’s radical past? Does Frum understand that that past is real?)

The reality is that conservatives repudiated much of the “Bush years” while they were happening. That is true of real conservatives, at least, as opposed to people who were helping write speeches about “compassionate conservatism” and promote a huge new Medicare program. The government, the debt, the budget– all of it is much bigger now than at the beginning of the “conservative” Bush years. So you are darned right that conservatives have decided that we have reached a point where going along and getting along are no longer viable. Serious people like Paul Ryan have tried to start providing the conservative leadership we need to right our course and get through this time when our very survival sometimes seems at stake. But it is precisely this sober leadership that Frum seems to despise is radical kookery.

There is much else in Frum’s column with which to take issue. When he is at odds with 99% of conservatives, perhaps, just perhaps, it is he who is not what he claims to be. I’m happy for Frum that he has his blog with a little crowd of liberal “Republicans” to tell him how smart and honest he is. But he is not relevant to conservative Republicans except to continue to remind us of what has been most wrong with the party for many years:  lack of principle, self-doubt and even self-hatred, liberal elitism, resignment to surrender as the noble course.

Jots and Tiddles

U.S. Lags Other Countries in Wellness and Medical Care. But, you know, it still looks to me like we’re pretty well off.

Americans smoke at a far lower rate than in other countries, but in addition to its level of obesity, the U.S. rate for diabetes is among the developed world’s highest. And though Americans are living an average nine years longer than 50 years ago, 26 other countries outpace the U.S. in life expectancy.

Why are US tax payers still handing out big money to already wealthy companies in the form of Ag subsidies?  This makes no sense to me. The government needs to get out of the business of handing out money to farmers. It’s a drop in the bucket, perhaps, but we still don’t need to be doing it.

Under America’s lavish subsidy system, farmers collected $260 billion in taxpayer money between 1995 and 2010. In theory, this money is supposed to help small farmers survive in a volatile and risky sector. In reality, most of this money goes to the biggest agrarian operations. Since 1995, the top 10 percent of farmers collected 75 percent of all farm-bill subsidies, according to analysis by the nonprofit Environmental Working Group.

Employs of mortgage foreclosure firm that made fun of  people losing their houses are now losing their jobs. But is it fair?

On Oct. 28, published photos from the firm’s annual Halloween party showed employees wearing costumes mocking people who had lost their homes.Following the revelation of the crass photos, the national mortgage servicing giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae blacklisted the Baum firm and forbade servicers of their mortgages from using Baum and his colleagues, a move which essentially sounded the death knell for the firm.

Occupy Wallstreet, hell. Occupy Congress!

That’s because 250 members of Congress — or 47 percent — have a net worth of more than $1 million, according to a new study by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics.

The study, which analyzed data from legislators’ financial disclosure forms, found the average senator had a net worth of about $2.63 million last year. That’s up 11 percent from $2.38 million in 2009 and 16 percent from $2.27 million in 2008.

One of the way congresscritters get rich is by being able to legally trade on inside information, something no one except elected congresspersons can legally do. However, the STOCK Act looks to put a stop to that.

Such trades have proven remarkably lucrative. A newly released study by the Center for Responsive Politics found that members of Congress saw their net worth rise by over 25 percent since the financial crisis of 2008, while average Americans have seen their net worth plummet.

“It should be illegal for them to trade off of this kind of information,” Alan Ziobrowski, an associate professor of business at Georgia State University, told The Daily. “There’s no reason that Congress should be able to do what corporate executives can’t.”

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1185.4 32 2.77%
Eurostoxx Index 2197 85.720 4.06%
Oil (WTI) 99.62 2.850 2.95%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 78.964 -0.646 -0.81%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.07% 0.11%

Markets are rallying this morning without any major catalyst. Reporters are searching for reasons for the rally, and have offered a rumor of an 800 billion euro rescue package by the IMF (subsequently denied) and a better than expected Black Friday. If you got in your car this morning and wondered why the S&Ps are up 32 handles, well, there isn’t an earth shattering reason. Sometimes there just isn’t an obvious catalyst. Volatility begets volatility.

The National Retail Federation put out its report on Black Friday Weekend sales
last night. The average consumer spent $398.62 over the weekend vs $365.34 last year, a 9.1% increase. Total spending was over $54 billion. Strong promotional activity brought out shoppers, so some caution is in order – we may have only been pulling December sales forward. That said, it is more evidence that consumers are spending, even if the sentiment indicators suggest they are not.

The WSJ has a piece on unemployment this morning that discusses how the US employment market is beginning to resemble Europe’s. While the US labor market doesn’t have nearly the amount of rigidity that characterizes Europe’s labor market, one of the big symptoms of sclerosis – a lack of mobility – has begun to flash warning signs here in the US. The US has always had a very flexible labor force, where the unemployed could easily move to areas of the country where employment was rising. We have seen the Rust Belt lose population to the Sun Belt for decades. However, Americans have been changing jobs and moving locations less frequently than in prior decades. The housing bust of the last 5 years explains some of this, but not all. Demographics and health care may explain some of it. But it doesn’t bode well for a rapid decrease in unemployment.

Driving back from Santa Fe

We drove through the world’s largest windfarm after we left Sweetwater.  The 2.833 year old twins were fascinated.

Austin’s two lowest cost sources of energy are natural gas and wind, followed by coal.  The City is trying to replace all its coal based use.  Wind produces about 17% of Austin’s energy, I think.  Austin also has built a large solar facility but it can supply only about 1% of capacity and costs four times as much as gas or wind.

The City’s insistence on solar projects is controversial because they will produce energy over a twenty year period projected to drop in cost comparison from four times wind to twice wind, but never be as cheap as wind.  The City justifies solar projects on a few grounds – diversity of clean sources, a boost to tech companies in and coming to Austin, and the fact that the sunniest days are the least windy.   Further, Austin does not have local wind generation capacity and buys from wind farms either in the west or on the Gulf.  Austin does have enough sunshine, and the local City owned sun powered 30MW generation plant opens in a few weeks.

Austin owns land in west TX that I thought was going to get dotted with wind generators.  I now read in this morning’s paper that the city utility wants to build 3 huge solar arrays that will potentially provide 10% of capacity.  I assume that would be instead of wind generators.

The city utility subsidizes rooftop solar panels but is leery of them in the long term.

I am not an opponent of experimenting with solar on a small scale, albeit large enough to sustain slow development, until it becomes cheap.  The local solar plant made sense to me in that regard.  But wind is so cheap that for coal replacement nothing else makes current $$$ and sense [except NG].  Like Boone Pickens, I think NG is the mobile fuel of choice in the near future, so I would go for more wind in the stationary source market.

What are the down sides of wind farms?  The prop blades are tough on birds that do not adapt by flying higher.  The ground vibrates.  The props make some noise.  The high plains from Sweetwater, TX to N.Dak. are wind central but the transmission lines are not in place and must generally be routed hundreds of miles to population centers.  Wind speeds are high enough over the Great Lakes and the coastal waters for generators, and can be placed close to coastal or lakeside population centers.

A political note:  our Land Commissioner is the daddy of windpower in America.  A staunch conservative R, I vote for him every time.  He saw that it would be cheap, a boon for underutilized mesas in TX, and that it could help sustain the economy many years ago, and subsidized its development until TX now has far and away the most wind generated power in America.  I think we will have enough to support one third of the homes in TX within two years.