Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1242.2 | 16.6 | 1.35% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2285 | 35.640 | 1.58% |
| Oil (WTI) | 97.15 | 1.410 | 1.47% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 77.442 | -0.525 | -0.67% |
| US 10 Year Yield | 2.04% | 0.07% | |
| Italy 10 Year Yield | 6.82% | -0.42% |
Markets are rebounding after a successful Italian bond auction overnight. Italy sold 5 billion euros of government debt at 6.09%, which put a bid in the 10-year, which rallied to below 7%, nearly erasing yesterday’s losses. Essentially the Italian 10-year did a round trip from 86 1/2 to 82 1/4, which is a 5% move. For government bonds, that is nearly a year’s pay. It is a strange world we live in when normally staid government bonds exhibit the sort of volatility usually reserved for stocks and commodities.
The permanent rescue fund has hit a roadblock as French and German finance ministers clash over provisions to force haircuts on bondholders. As I mentioned before, it appears the French banks are holding the old maid and the government is resisting plans that impose losses on creditors because the last thing they want to do is to have to bail out the French banks (again). This could become an issue.
In the US, there has been a battle royale going on between Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq – GMCR) and hedge fund manager David Einhorn. For those who don’t know, Einhorn runs Greenlight Capital and has be very publicly short the coffee company. Einhorn has cited a number of accounting issues as well as concerns over market size and patents. GMCR announced lower than expected earnings last night, and the stock is down about 30%. These sorts of battles between value hedge-fund managers and growth mutual fund managers make for interesting stories. Usually, the mutual fund managers (by sheer size of dollars invested) steamroll the value guys who are shorting the high-flyers. Once in a while the value guys win one too.
In economic data, initial jobless claims came in at 390k, slightly below the street estimate of 400k. The trade deficit shrunk to 43 billion from 45 billion.
Filed under: Uncategorized |
All Things in Moderation 
As ever, thanks.
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I asked on the SCOTUS thread:bsimon said… If its legal for a cop to place a GPS device on a car without a warrant, is it legal for me to do so?
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"It is a strange world we live in when normally staid government bonds exhibit the sort of volatility usually reserved for stocks and commodities."Another great observation. Did the European Central bank drive a lot of the Italian bond purchases, or was it mostly other investors/speculators?
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Thanks. I don't think the central bank had anything to do with it. LCH raised margin requirements and fees on Italian government bonds the night before which rattled markets.
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bsimon:I think you'd be guilty of trespass if you put a GPS on someone else's car without their approval. Monitoring the GPS could amount to stalking.
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Mike, according to the government 's argument, a GPS device is no different from following a person in public. If the trespass argument is valid, it seems the government should need a warrant.
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Sounds like stalking to me, bsimon!
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Somebody brought this up yesterday, so here's the reprint with a couple of new additions about GM- total US employment by Chrysler at the time of the bailout about 45,000. Total number of Chrysler franchisees dissolved as part of the bailout 789, resulting employment loss: 50,000 directly 2-3 times that in total.- amount of Federal loan to Chrysler forgiven at time of the bailout and never paid back 1.9 billion. Amount of loans forgiven to Chrysler parts suppliers about 1.5 billion. – in the spring when talk of an IPO for Chrysler was floating around the estimated market value of the company was 15-25 billion dollars. Taking the low end of that figure, Fiat now owns 52 percent of Chrysler, at a value of roughly 9 billion for which it has paid roughly 1.2 billion and the tech know-how to build the Fiat 500, (which in the most recent sales figures comprised about 2-3% of Chrysler sales). Investment increase to Fiat, minimally 8 times in 2.5 years- amount of money that just one state pension fund, Indiana, lost in the Chrysler bailout 17 million dollars- Why is Chrysler making a profit now? By creating balloon payments to it’s pension fund that will trigger AFTER the IPO. “For an even simpler understanding of Detroit’s pension problem, we must look to GM and Chrysler’s estimates of future contributions required to maintain minimum funding levels for its pension plans, as required under law. Both bailed-out automakers are currently above minimum levels, however starting in 2013, large contributions are expected to be needed. . . . Chrysler, meanwhile faces smaller payments over the short term, of $400m in 2010 and $40m in 2012, but payments to maintain minimum funding levels will increase to $930m in 2013 and $1.25b in 2014.” – How did Chrysler pay off 5.9 billion in bailout loans from the government? Partially with 3.5 billion in new loans from the DOEhttp://www.toledoblade.com/Automotive/2011/06/22/Chrysler-to-receive-Energy-Dept-loans.html-where is Chrysler looking to expand it’s manufacturing?Chrysler to build more vehicles in Chinese factorieshttp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-06/25/content_12774820.htmJust a bit more about GMHow has GM been making a profit:Amount of the pension under funding at GM : either 10 billion or 30 billion depending on how you account for things http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-01/no-gm-buyback-or-dividend-seen-as-pension-gap-freezes-cash-cars.htmlhttp://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/09/with-liabilities-looming-gm-and-uaw-agree-to-pension-buyouts-but-what-about-the-workers/Amount GM stock has fallen since the IPO: about 33% in one yearAmount of GM still owned by the government, about 32%What was the major problem of the auto industry circa 2008: “Many of the excesses of the past — overproduction, bloated vehicle lineups, expensive rebates — are gone.”http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/credit_crisis/auto_industry/index.htmlWhat has been making a comeback due to overproduction of vehicles:“Stronger New Car Rebates and Incentives On The Way This Fall”http://www.autobytel.com/auto-news/stronger-new-car-rebates-and-incentives-on-the-way-this-fall-102615/How do Chrysler and GM pad their sales versus “foreign car makers: Fleet sales which comprise between 20-30%http://www.allpar.com/news/index.php/2011/10/chrysler-improved-retail-to-fleet-sales-mix-in-september
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John! Bless your master of data. I'm going to quote your comment, making all links clickable:(The following is John):- How did Chrysler pay off 5.9 billion in bailout loans from the government? Partially with 3.5 billion in new loans from the DOEhttp://www.toledoblade.com/Automotive/2011/06/22/Chrysler-to-receive-Energy-Dept-loans.html-where is Chrysler looking to expand it’s manufacturing?Chrysler to build more vehicles in Chinese factorieshttp://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2011-06/25/content_12774820.htmJust a bit more about GMHow has GM been making a profit:Amount of the pension under funding at GM : either 10 billion or 30 billion depending on how you account for thingshttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-01/no-gm-buyback-or-dividend-seen-as-pension-gap-freezes-cash-cars.htmlhttp://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2011/09/with-liabilities-looming-gm-and-uaw-agree-to-pension-buyouts-but-what-about-the-workers/Amount GM stock has fallen since the IPO: about 33% in one yearAmount of GM still owned by the government, about 32%What was the major problem of the auto industry circa 2008: “Many of the excesses of the past — overproduction, bloated vehicle lineups, expensive rebates — are gone.”http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/subjects/c/credit_crisis/auto_industry/index.htmlWhat has been making a comeback due to overproduction of vehicles:“Stronger New Car Rebates and Incentives On The Way This Fall”http://www.autobytel.com/auto-news/stronger-new-car-rebates-and-incentives-on-the-way-this-fall-102615/How do Chrysler and GM pad their sales versus “foreign car makers: Fleet sales which comprise between 20-30%http://www.allpar.com/news/index.php/2011/10/chrysler-improved-retail-to-fleet-sales-mix-in-september
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It's all fun and games until it's your own money at risk.
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Thanks johnSend me your email and I'll send you an invite to be an author so you can create your own posts. It would be easier than doing it via comments.plumgirls10@yahoo.com
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