All Things in Moderation

My Hobbit name is Berilac Bramble of Willowbottom. My Elvish name is Amras Lossëhelin. Follow the links to find yours.

There’s a new production video from The Hobbit on Facebook now. In it, Peter Jackson others discuss shooting in 3D and 48 fps, but there’s lots of nifty studio footage. Given that they wrapped studio shooting several months back, it must take awhile to get one of the video diaries together.

Eric Vespe from Ain’t It Cool News has a new set report (this one involving his cameo in The Hobbit), making me wish I wrote for an entertainment website and was in New Zealand.

Looking forward to The Hobbit. December 2012. I can’t wait that long. Arrrghh!

It’s illegal in China to use an ultrasound to determine the sex of your baby. I didn’t know that. I learned that from the Freakonomics podcast on China’s one child policy. Also touches on legalized abortion leading to a drop in crime (the most controversial assertion from their first Freakonomics book).

That’s it (from me) for today. Namaste. — KW

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Vital Statistics:

Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou stepped aside to allow the formation of a new Unity government which will implement the required measures to receive 130 billion euros in financing. Holders of Greek debt will receive 50 cents on the dollar. Surprisingly ISDA (who oversees derivative contracts) will not consider this to be a “credit event,” so if you had hedged your Greek sovereign debt holdings with credit default swaps, you are out of luck. This adds a brand new risk element to debt / CDS investing – interpretation risk – or the risk you can get crammed down and have it not be considered a credit event. It will be interesting to watch the dynamic here – CDS levels might start giving misleading indications. Since credit default swaps are basically puts, their put value will decline as investors factor in the possibility that they won’t get paid if, say, Italy or Portugal does a similar cramdown plan. Watch the bonds, not the swaps.

Earnings season is more or less over. While companies generally reported strong results, analysts are taking down 2012 estimates. FWIW, there has been a “V” shaped recovery in corporate profits, but that has not extended to employment. From my perch overlooking the mortgage market, I am seeing companies miss out on business because they don’t have the staff to handle it. They are pulled in different directions from increased activity, and paralysis from having no clue how the regulatory environment is going to look. Strange times indeed.

We have a few minor economic data releases this week, but nothing really market moving, except for Initial Jobless claims on Thurs morning. Europe will continue to dominate the market until the January fiscal retailers report Q3 numbers in a few weeks.

-ashotinthedark

I thought Triumph the Insult Comic Dog’s visit to OWS was too funny not to share.

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Just a quick post on something I’ve been thinking about in the last few weeks. With my publishing project, I’ve had a more first person experience with some of the big monoliths in today’s world—Google (AdWords specifically), Amazon, and Facebook, though a friend took on the Facebook role as it was an odd fit for me and not something I had time for in any case.

I have to admit to being in awe of the reach of these big companies that have become so important in our lives so quickly. I won’t go into all the very real benefits they’ve brought because we know what they are. But the smaller comment I want to make is that in a service age, these are not outfits that are particularly good at helping the people who use them. They count on users to know what they’re doing or to figure it out. For instance it’s easy enough to sign up for AdWords in hopes of a marketing boost. For a person who doesn’t have a starting knowledge of all the kinds of data it generates and how to use it effectively, it’s tough and time-consuming to figure out all the ins and outs of how it works and if it works, even if you check on it daily.

With Amazon KDP, you can upload things quickly but if you hit submit before you should, you won’t be able to fix a mistake with the same speed. If you send an email for help, you’ll hear back, but not quickly. As often as not, it’s assumed you’ll have your questions answered in forums by other people who’re also trying to navigate the system. I know very little about Facebook, but I have learned that there’s not a lot of software flexibility. You can have five pictures at the top of your page, or you can have five pictures at the top of your page. If you mistakenly link your page to another page, it’s apparently stuck that way.

My personal concern is with what’s essentially customer service, although it feels bigger than that. When an outfit is as huge and dominant as any of these are and still seeking to expand its reach, even if it’s relatively new in the marketplace, it’s still a monopoly with all the dangers that implies. We love the services and sometimes breathtaking opportunities we get from companies like this, but in some fundamental ways, I think we should be wary. I’m just not sure how.

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