Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojkt*crickets*
Is this broken?
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I Will Title All Untitled Posts
Posted on September 15, 2011 by Kevin S. Willis
The Folly of Prediction
Posted on September 15, 2011 by Kevin S. Willis
I’m often prone to say there are lies, damned lies, statistics, and predictions. So, of course, I enjoyed this episode of the Freakonomics podcast:
Joe Namath, pension fund managers, Romanian witches, psychic grandmothers, the Farmer’s Almanac, Mad Money, Barney Frank, Donald Rumsfeld . . . good stuff.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/07/freakonomics-the-folly-of-prediction/
“It’s impossible to predict the future, but humans can’t help themselves. From the economy to the presidency to the Super Bowl, educated and intelligent people promise insight and repeatedly fail by wide margins. These mistakes and misses go unpunished, both publicly and in our brain, which has become trained to ignore the record of those who make them.“
If you don’t already know, you’ll discover I’m a big fan of Freakonomics, TED Talks, the Ricochet podcast, and No Agenda. I will quote them often. You have been warned.
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Bankers are People Too
Posted on September 15, 2011 by lmsinca
Do you ever follow links that lead to other links and then even more links, I do. Hence, I came across this piece today, an anthropological study of bankers being conducted by a Danish anthropologist. He’s even launched a blog to discuss his findings. As a matter of fact it just went live today (link to blog at the end of the article). I took a couple of anthropology courses in college and they were two of my favorite classes, probably because I preferred anything to math or biology, but still.
Here are a couple of excerpts from the piece. We probably don’t need another blog to visit but you never know.
Another banker who would talk but declined to sit for a portrait, compared his work to that of a GP: “You spend many hours memorising terms (body parts, diseases, treatments) and learning to recognise patterns. Then you put in very long hours and collect a nice salary, while employing your jargon to intimidate outsiders.”
That’s the sort of thing I’ve been talking to bankers about, and why I am beginning to be captivated by them. Beneath the layers of lingo there are subcultures and dress codes and ways of speech, their mutual stereotypes, conventions, taboos and of course jokes: “Every economist knows that there are three kinds of economists; there are those who know how to count, and there are those who don’t.”
Now for the blog. Here’s the idea. You have the internet and today’s technology. You have the classic techniques of narrative journalism and anthropological fieldwork. And you have this enormously important yet devilishly complex thing called the world of finance.
Like most anthropologists he worries he’ll get too close to his subjects but,
Still the bankers are getting under my skin. If there’s one thing that has suddenly begun to annoy me no end it is categorical statements about “the banks” or “bankers”. I have learned by now that such generalisations obscure just how different many of the activities across the financial sector are. If you are angry about “the banks”, you need to specify which parts. Otherwise you are like somebody who blames the BBC for what happened at News of the World; they are all the media, aren’t they?
And here, a discussion with a lawyer friend, after observing a room full of lawyers, he compares their dress code to that of Merger & Acquisition bankers. Funny but interesting if you believe that bankers are people too.
He then proceeded to compare this to the outfit of an M&A banker. These may dress in a very flashy way and drive very expensive cars. The reason is, they are selling companies for their clients, making these clients very rich. If an M&A banker radiates wealth and success, potential new clients will not think: am I paying too much? Potential clients will think: this guy has made other people very rich, he must be very good, I am going to hire him so he can make me very rich too.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/14/bankers-anthropological-study-joris-luyendijk
The obvious conclusion of course is that none of us should demonize entire swaths of either an industry, political party or any identified group of people.
*Administrative note: I’ll be publishing an open thread this evening (not too early) so we can all discuss the days events, the Plumline (just kidding), our blog or whatever suits your fancy. I thought we’d try it and see if everyone likes it. I think I’ll call it Go To Bed (not really) unless anyone has a better idea.
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For Better or Worse, but not Alzheimer’s
Posted on September 15, 2011 by Arcanaut
Religious broadcaster Pat Robertson told his “700 Club” viewers that divorcing a spouse with Alzheimer’s is justifiable because the disease is “a kind of death.”
During the portion of the show where the one-time Republican presidential candidate takes questions from viewers, Robertson was asked what advice a man should give to a friend who began seeing another woman after his wife started suffering from the incurable neurological disorder.
“I know it sounds cruel, but if he’s going to do something, he should divorce her and start all over again, but make sure she has custodial care and somebody looking after her,” Robertson said.
The chairman of the Christian Broadcasting Network, which airs the “700 Club,” said he wouldn’t “put a guilt trip” on anyone who divorces a spouse who suffers from the illness, but added, “Get some ethicist besides me to give you the answer.”
Most Christian denominations at least discourage divorce, citing Jesus’ words in the Gospel of Mark that equate divorce and remarriage with adultery.
Terry Meeuwsen, Robertson’s co-host, asked him about couples’ marriage vows to take care of each other “for better or for worse” and “in sickness and in health.”
“If you respect that vow, you say ’til death do us part,'” Robertson said during the Tuesday broadcast. “This is a kind of death.”
A network spokesman said Wednesday that Robertson had no further statement.
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http://www.contracostatimes.com/rss/ci_18901026?source=rss
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BP At Fault for Deep Water Horizon Disaster
Posted on September 15, 2011 by Kevin S. Willis
Ya think?
“Federal investigators issued a report concluding that the Deepwater Horizon oil-rig disaster was primarily due to BP’s cost-cutting measures and poor safety standards — and that BP is ultimately to blame.”
Video here:
http://www.thedaily.com/page/2011/09/15/091511-news-gulf-oil-spill-video/
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Cowboys Never Say They’re Sorry
Posted on September 15, 2011 by Arcanaut
Perry’s doubling down on his “Social Security is a Ponzi scheme” is a familiar tactic. Perhaps he wishes he had not published that in his book, but once he did, he now seems committed to defending the idea and the language. He also shows this same committment to tuition assistance that may benefit illegals in Texas and the wisdom of Texas’ execution policy. To be fair, he has backed off on the HPV vaccination kerfuffle, but he’s not backed off very far.
He reminds me of George W. in this personality trait, although he’s like GW on steroids. This trait keeps ringing a bell–why is this so familiar?. It can’t just be GW and Rick Perry.
Perhaps this is a western ranching state, macho male, “never complain, never explain” kind of cowboy bravado. That’s it! I’ve heard this a million times.–people who pride themselves on never changing their ideas, their language, their minds lest they appear weak. Changing equates to weakness. No wonder that people like President Obama are so offputting to them–he’s the epitome of what a western Marlboro-man would consider a drugstore cowboy with his emphasis on nuance and air of reasonableness. In fact, he’s constantly being criticized now for being too conciliatory. [edit]
Perhaps this personality type is not a ranching state phenomena, but that’s what I’m familiar with. In California, which is certainly western, but not much ranching culture in the cities, where I was involved with all sorts of entrepreneurs (who are definitely alpha types), this type of allegiance to prior statements was very uncommon, in fact nonexistent. They could change on a dime and frequently did so, and actually prided themselves on their ability to adjust to changing conditions. In fact, the venture capitalists evaluated people on their ability to quickly abandon losing strategies and develop new strategies, without emotional damage.
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Perry and higher ed
Posted on September 15, 2011 by markinaustin
This may seem a parochial concern to non-Texans, but bear with me. See:
UT has become a powerhouse research institution. SAT averages are in the mid 80th percentiles [1240 on the old scoring we are all familiar with, but significantly higher in scitech and business and architecture, lower in the social sciences and education, predictably] plus very high GREs for its grad students and very high LSATS, GMATS and PCATS as applicable. The scitech grad schools are all top ten in America and among the most highly funded. The biz school and the music school and most of the arts and social sciences are highly regarded and ranked as well. Accounting is often #1 and pharmcy #2, 3, or 4.
Most of UT’s funding is NOT from the state legislature.
Perry had pushed a plan that has some populist appeal: make profs “work” harder. His plan cut into research time and demanded more teaching time and included student evaluations as part of the tenure map. There are two Tier One publics in TX: UT and A&M. Perry’s plan got traction with the non-UT system lower tier schools and with A&M, grudgingly. It was fought tooth and nail by UT, system wide. There are some up and coming lower tier UT system schools and some first class purely graduate and professional research institutes outside Austin, like the Health Science Center in Houston, and Southwest Medical School in Dallas. So Perry’s two year long war [see: http://www.texasmonthly.com/2011-04-01/btl.php] came to a head in July and Bill Powers won. During that foment, btw, a poll actually found that BHO would run even with Perry in TX. He really would not, of course, but the confluence of BinLaden’s death at the hands of SEALS and this war, perceived as an affront by UT alums, was momentarily heady for BHO fans.
My point for national consumption: Perry actually has some good ideas for higher ed –
but in Texas he wanted to punitively use them against the research tier one schools, or so it seemed. I think there is a place for tier one research universities as well as for community colleges and I am a huge fan of community colleges as the best and fastest way to retrain a work force and give the willing a second chance. I think Perry’s ideas are best applied to community colleges. What do you think?
This is likely my last appearance here until tonight. Look forward to the day’s reading when I get to it.
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Hello, World
Posted on September 15, 2011 by Arcanaut
Hi all,
First and foremost, I’d like to thank Kevin for getting this going. I’ve scanned over a few posts and it looks promising. I have a little blog of my own that took a summer break. In case anyone is interested, the blog is fairlingtonblade.blogspot.com. My posts tend to be either about cooking or raising kids with autism. I’d thought about politics as I certainly have a bit to say about that. I didn’t go that direction, because there’s plenty of political blogs out there. Mind you, there’s plenty of blogs about autism (autismtwins is a favorite) and cooking. Originally, I was planning to emphasize my work as the secretary of a bowling league, but never got around to it. That might change.
Second. I look forward to discussions with those who hold opposing opinions. Ever since the Post redesigned the comments section, it wasn’t worth starting a thread and I tended towards snark. I rather enjoy chatting politics with conservatives–my best friend from grad school was a die hard Republican. Funny thing is that he’d been a die hard Democrat and then went to a party convention in Minnesota. Anyway, this should be fun.
Finally, who is the Fairlington Blade? For that matter, what is a Fairlington Blade? I picked up the Fairlington bit as that’s the area where I live. It’s a combination of Fairfax and Arlington, though it’s not on the border between the two. Technically, I don’t live in Fairlington, just in a neighboring development in Alexandria that appropriated the name as it’s a bit more shi shi (than Bradlee Towers.
The Blade comes from my favorite football team, Sheffield United. [Note: I grew up in Nebraska so I’m a die hard Huskers fan. Still, it makes sense to me that the game in which a foot strikes the ball has primacy.] For those who have seen The Full Monty, you’ll know that Sheffield is a steel town. The name is famous for cutlery for hundreds of years. So, Sheffield United is the Blades. I also liked the sound of the name Fairlington Blade. It sounded Zorro-esque. It’s also gotten me accused of being a not so closeted gay to my immense amusement. It doesn’t help that the local GLBT newspaper is the Washington Blade.
So, that’s the nickname. What lies behind it? I’m Paul Lane. I’m a research physicist at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory. I’ve been studying organic semiconductors for about 20 years. I went to college at Macalester in Minnesota, grad school at Iowa State and have since bounced around quite a bit. Post-doc at Utah, four years as a “professor” in Sheffield, England, and the last ten years at research labs in Boston or Washington, DC.
The non-political posts should be fun too. My biggest cooking passion is Indian food, though I make decent sushi and killer risotto. I’ll have fun chatting about the kids too. There’s a good saying. If you meet one kid with autism, you’ve met one kid with autism. Mine are five year old twins and different as night and day in their needs. Both would be considered high functioning and just started kindergarten. Parenting a special needs kid isn’t that different in kind from a typical kid. There’s just a lot more meetings.
BB
P.S. Edited for completeness. I did like the accidental “Second. Whatever.” from the draft post.
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Open thread for Administrative discussion (Thursday)
Posted on September 15, 2011 by Kevin S. Willis
Update: We’re using this thread to discuss site issues today (Thursday).
If you run back and forth and juggle all things in your life, you get here and want to see where the people who said something said it, especially if in response so no one feels ignored if you talked to someone else or started with a new post.
I really like the old PL. One long string that was all there was, if you saw it, that was it. I really don’t like clicking all over the place I can’t even remember where I said what to whom and this is the first few hours.
Could we have a conversation about moderator controlled new strings?
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Comments format
Posted on September 15, 2011 by ScottC
Does everyone like the way the comments section works? Another option is to have the comments come up in a separate pop up window. I actually prefer that, because you can still see the front page in the main window, which can be refreshed for new posts without losing the comments that you might be looking at for a particular post. Not sure if/how it might effect mobile devices, though. Food for thought.
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All Things in Moderation 