Bob Turner Wins by a Weiner

Posted on September 14, 2011 by Kevin S. Willis

Bob Turner (R) wins in New York, a seat previously assumed to belong exclusively to the Democrats.

The GOP should be thanking Anthony Weiner. Good job!

Of course, as someone who won a solid victory in the face of what was once considered a guaranteed Democratic win could have learned from his opponents earlier, apparently unfounded, sanguinity.

We have lit one candle today. It’s going to be a bonfire pretty soon.

Is it just me, or are massive political sea changes predicted more often than they actually happen? Anyhoo, what do we think? Is this a bellwether for 2012? And if so, for who? Obama (don’t make me dig out my statistics on the difficulty of beating an incumbent president), or senate Democrats, several of whom could potentially be vulnerable?

More at the Gothamist:

http://gothamist.com/2011/09/14/bob_turner_wins_weiners_district_fo.php

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4 Responses

  1. Unknown's avatar
    Mark in Austin, on September 14, 2011 at 2:59 pm said:

    Just throwing a horseshoe here.Most American Jews are not Orthodox. This CD is apparently majority Orthodox Jews. Orthodox Jews tend to be "Israel" voters.In one week, the UN will recognize fledgling statehood for Palestine, regardless of the USA's probable veto, meant to mollify these very Orthodox Jews.Thus I think irrational fear for Israel affected this vote, 9-11 type hysteria about who would "stand by" the crazy settlement policies of the Likud.I am a Jew and I have relatives in Israel, none of whom feel threatened by Fayad and this gambit for Palestinian statehood recognition. Of course, they are all anti-settlement, pro peace, pro two state solution. But they do feel threatened by Hamas and Gaza, and that does make them wish there was leverage to deal with Fayyad and the West Bank, alone. Unfortunately, that leverage was lost in the Likud and Orthodox expansion of 300K settlers who think they are God's gift to suburbanizing the olive groves or something.Too harsh? Perhaps. But those are the NY-9 voters, too, I think.

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  2. Unknown's avatar
    kevinwillis.net, on September 14, 2011 at 3:13 pm said:

    So, I'm guessing you don't see this as a bellwether. I don't, either, but I can see why Republicans, after Scott Brown and 2010 would feel this is just another sign of their inevitable ascension to controlling house, senate, and the Whitehouse.

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  3. Unknown's avatar
    bsimon, on September 14, 2011 at 3:34 pm said:

    Bellweather: nope. Switches back in 14 months.

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  4. Unknown's avatar
    Mark in Austin, on September 14, 2011 at 4:03 pm said:

    Actually, isn't this one of the two NY CDs slated for evaporative therapy?

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