Morning Report 5/16/12

Vital Statistics:

 

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1334.7 6.5 0.49%
Eurostoxx Index 2186.7 8.0 0.37%
Oil (WTI) 92.98 -1.0 -1.06%
LIBOR 0.467 0.001 0.21%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.31 0.086 0.11%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.80% 0.03%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 175.5 0.4  

S&P futures are firming this morning after hitting lows of 1321 overnight. Good earnings reports from Target and Deere seem to be overshadowing the bank run going on in Greece. Greek, Irish and Portuguese yields are higher this morning. US Treasuries are down half a point while MBS are flat. Everyone is waiting for the minutes of the last FOMC meeting which will be released this afternoon. 

Industrial Production increased 1.1% in April, a reasonably strong reading. Capacity Utilization ticked up to 79.2%, but the Fed revised down everything for the past year.

The recent drop in rates is triggering refi activity, as evidenced by a 9.2% jump in mortgage applications last week.

April Housing Starts came in at a 717k annualized rate, better than expectations, but still horribly depressed. To put that number in perspective, the in the 74-75 recession, starts bottomed at 904k.  In the 81-82 recession, they bottomed at 837k. In the 91-92 recession, they bottomed at 798k.  These bottoms were V-shaped and typically lasted 6 months or so before returning to normalcy of around 1500.  When was the last time we saw a 800k print?  September of 2008 – almost 4 years ago. Housing historically leads the economy out of a recession, and its absence has been a big part of why this recovery has been so anemic.

Is the summer of 2012 going to be a replay of the summer of 2011?  Certainly the pieces are being put in place – Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is again in the forefront, the economy is decelerating after a good Q4 / Q1, and the old saw “Sell in May and go away” was good advice again. We even have the prospect of major tax increases Jan 1 as the Bush tax cuts expire. The only thing we are missing is a debt ceiling fight. Oh, wait…

The Florida Supreme Court is hearing an foreclosure case that asks an interesting question – can the banks who filed foreclosures based on robo-signed documents voluntarily dismiss these cases and re-file them with better documents?

The good market reception to the Facebook IPO means that sellers are increasing the amount for sale. Existing holders like Goldman, Tiger, and Accel are blowing out of 241MM shares, much more than they originally planned.  Surprisingly, and perhaps no coincidentally,  GM has dropped paid advertising with Facebook because they “weren’t effective enough”. Apparently “likes” doesn’t necessarily translate into sales or dealer inquiries.

Toobin on Citizens United

Jeffery Toobin has an article in the New Yorker about the behind-the-scenes action in Citizens United. It’s long, so I haven’t had the chance to read it in its entirety, but here’s a “review” from Jonathan Adler at VC. The first graf:

The latest New Yorker has an extensive excerpt of Jeffrey Toobin’s forthcoming book, The Oath: The Obama White House vs. the Supreme Court, focusing on the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision. The story, “Money Unlimited: How Chief Justice John Roberts orchestrated the Citizens United decision,” is everything you’d expect from a Toobin piece. It’s engaging and informative, with exclusive behind-the-scenes reporting of how the decision came to be. This stuff is catnip for court watchers. Yet the article also contains plenty of subtle (and not-so-subtle) spin in service of Toobin’s broader narrative of an out-of-control conservative court. As a consequence, Toobin paints a somewhat misleading picture of the case and the Court.

Morning Report 5/15/12

Vital Statistics

 

 

Last

Change

Percent

S&P Futures 

1336.0

1.9

0.14%

Eurostoxx Index

2179.7

-22.2

-1.01%

Oil (WTI)

94.71

-0.1

-0.07%

LIBOR

0.466

0.000

0.00%

US Dollar Index (DXY)

80.89

0.280

0.35%

10 Year Govt Bond Yield

1.78%

0.02%

 

RPX Composite Real Estate Index

175.5

0.4

 

 

Markets are up this morning on a lack of news out of Europe and some mixed economic data. The Consumer Price Index showed inflation remains benign, while retail sales data showed spending up slightly and below expectations. Bonds and MBS are down slightly. Greek bond yields are up 160 basis points. Portugal and Ireland are up as well 

The New York Fed released its Empire State Manufacturing Survey this morning, which came in better then expected on higher shipments. Six month optimism fell.

The National Association of Home Builders released its builder confidence survey this morning, which showed improving sentiment.

The Washington Post is starting to focus on the tax hikes that will take place in the beginning of 2013. They note the uncertainty that it is causing. So far, there seems to be no discussions in Washington about what to do about it. IMO this has been driving some of the recent deceleration in the economy.

Lots of institutional investors are clicking “Like” – Facebook raised the range of its IPO price from 28-35 to 34-38. At the top end of the range, FB would be valued at 26x sales – or about twice the valuation of the Google IPO.

Ally doesn’t plan on re-organizing the mortgage business and getting back in to the housing market. They are going to stick with car loans. Money Quote from Ally CEO Michael Carpenter: “You can live in your car if you don’t pay your mortgage.  I don’t mean to be cute, but the fact is people make their car payment before they pay their mortgage.”

Chart:  NAHB Index:

Morning Report 5/14/12

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1340.2 -9.8 -0.73%
Eurostoxx Index 2199.2 -55.4 -2.46%
Oil (WTI) 94.47 -1.7 -1.73%
LIBOR 0.466 -0.001 -0.21%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.51 0.248 0.31%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.78% -0.05%
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 175.3 0.0

A sloppy start to the week as sovereign spreads widen in Europe. Greek sovereign debt is now trading at a 27.4% yield, which is the same level as last Nov. Don’t forget, this is the post-reorg debt – for those keeping score at home, Greek sovereigns were at 15% last year at this time, rose to over 40%, did a restructuring two months ago which pushed yields down to 17%, and now they are 27%. Spanish yields are rising, and it is time to start paying attention to the credit default swaps on the big European banks – Dexia is considered one of the worst cases, and is trading at the 17.75% level.

All of the stress in Europe is pushing down Treasury yields which sit about 10 basis points above September’s lows. MBS are higher as well, with the Fannie and Ginnie 3.5s up 6 ticks. This is putting pressure on oil and the Euro. The S&P futures are suggesting that the 200 day moving average is going to get broken on the open.

It is official – Ally’s Residential Capital has filed for bankruptcy protection. This move separates the auto loan and banking business, and should pave the way for the government to divest its 74% stake. Ally is providing the $150MM DIP and is kicking in $750MM.

It looks like 3 executives from JP Morgan will walk the plank over the $2 billion “hedging” loss in their Chief Investment Office unit. Jamie Dimon is not resigning, at least not yet. It is surprising that JP Morgan disclosed the loss before it fully exited the position – if disclosure rules forced his hand, that is a big unintended consequence. This episode will undoubtedly elicit calls for more regulation, and strengthens the view in Washington that there is no alpha in banking, just beta.

Chart: Greek 10 year bond yield:

Bites and Pieces: Build a Better Burger

Gourmet burgers have become all the rage in the DC area. The Five Guys burger chain has its origins at the intersection of Glebe Road and Columbia Pike in Arlington, not too far from where I live. Rays Hell Burger was locally famous before it became a favorite place for President Obama to take visiting dignitaries. Their burgers really are THAT good. BGR is another favorite of mine. The worst burger I ever ate was at a greasy spoon off campus of the University of Missouri. I was interviewing for a faculty position in the Physics Department. I ordered a burger for lunch, took one bite, and realized that the center was raw. My guess is that it hadn’t completely defrosted when they put it on the grill. My choices were to send it back, potentially causing an awkward moment, or to choke it down. I choked it down and probably was fortunate to not get sick. I didn’t get the job; they gave it to a former grad student of the chair of the search committee. On the plus side, we went to a wine dinner that night at a local shop that was worth the trip.

A good burger is a thing of beauty and a great base for whatever you want to do. In Santa Fe, New Mexico, it’s going to be topped by green chili. Treat it like a steak and top with bernaise sauce. When you come down to it, basic is best. Few things are finer than a simple cheese burger on a good bun. Perhaps some fried onions or ketchup. Keep the mustard and relish away from my burger, please. Waiter, if me and the boys wanted to eat a hot dog, we would have ordered a hot dog. [Credit to Humphrey Bogart]

So, why on earth am I going to waste a valued slot of Bits and Bites on burgers. We all know how to make a burger. Take some ground beef, make some patties and grill them. Simple, no? Well, it’s time for me to go all Alton Brown on you. I want to focus on the critical ingredient: ground beef. If you’re buying it from a supermarket, you are either paying too much or don’t know what you’re using. I’m not talk about pink slime, simply that the stuff sold as “ground beef” in supermarkets might as well be mystery meat. It’s all the trimmings ground together, adjusted for fat content, and thrown out there for $4/pound. Good for the bottom line, but not the making of a great burger.

I ground my own beef for the first time a few years ago. We were one of a half-dozen families who were getting together for a picnic and I was assigned burgers. One of our copies of Cooks Illustrated had an easy way of making ground beef using a food processor, so I decided to give it a go. The burgers were great, even if the picnic wasn’t. One of my sons had an extended crying jag and I had to leave around the time that enough people finally arrived for the grilling to commence.

Thereafter, there has been a repeated refrain when it comes to E Coli contamination: ground beef. Does anyone remember when E Coli hit Jack in the Box. I remember a suggested slogan for them after the scare. “Jack in the Box: We cook the shit out of our burgers.” The best way to have a burger is medium rare and the only way you can be sure of it is to know where the beef comes from or trust the source. As long as you’re going to make your own burger, why not take a bit of extra time on the most important ingredient?

What meat to use? I have two ways to make ground beef. Chuck roast is perfect for making ground beef, which is why you often see it listed as ground chuck. One gets about 20% fat, perfect for burgers. We have a Costco membership, so I pick up some chuck roast every so often. I can get it for about the same price as ground meat in the grocery store. Oh, but the quality is so much better. I sometimes use flank steak, which is flavorful, but quite lean. I pair the flank steak with boneless short ribs to get the right fat level. Other folks like sirloin. Hey, do what you want to do! I’ve read about using a cheap cut of relatively lean beef and adding in lard to kick up the fat level. You could go full gourmet and add duck fat.

How to make the ground beef? We bought a stand mixer a few years ago via Craigslist and the owner threw in a pasta making attachment (useless) and a grinding attachment (wonderful). So, I use that for making ground beef. A food processor works just fine. Cut the meat into 1” – 2” chunks, put it in the freezer for about 15 minutes to firm it up, and pulse it until you get the right consistency. It’s easy! Process it in batches and freeze the excess. I wrap the ground beef in plastic wrap, followed by a barrier layer of aluminum foil. It’ll keep and there’s no freezer burn.

How do you make a better burger? A great burger needs three things: ground beef, salt, and pepper. If you’re adding bread or onions or whatever else, you’re making meat loaf, not a burger. Don’t get me wrong, I love a good meat loaf. This, however, is about burgers. I do think that the salt and pepper should be mixed it. The entire burger should be seasoned. Otherwise, there’s a hit of seasoning on the crust, and nothing inside. So, mix in the salt and pepper. I like ½ teaspoon of salt and ¼ teaspoon of black pepper for a pound of ground beef. Once it’s mixed, divide the beef into about 5 oz. for each patty. Cook how you like. It’s hard, ok, impossible, to beat the grill. On the stove, I use a cast iron skillet. Avoid non-stick at all cost.

Now, sauce time. I can hardly fault the combination of grilled onions and cheese. I mentioned the New Mexico penchant for green chile sauce on burgers, so I thought I’d share my favorite salsa verde. It comes from Rick Bayless, the chef with a number of Mexican restaurants in the Chicago area, including Topolobampo and Frontera Grill.

1 pound of tomatillos
1 head of garlic, separated into cloves with skin on
8 Serrano peppers
1 lg. white onion
1 bunch cilantro
2 – 4 limes (depending upon how juice they are)
salt and pepper to taste

Remove outer wrap from tomatillos and wash. Rub with vegetable oil and put into oven (a toaster oven is great for this) on broil until skins blacken. Set aside to cool and remove skins. Don’t worry about getting it all. When skins are removed, toss into the bowl of a food processor.
Meanwhile, thoroughly coat Serrano peppers and garlic cloves with vegetable oil and put in medium sized pan. Cook over med-high heat, shaking occasionally, until skins of peppers blister and the garlic slightly blackens. Remove from heat, cover and let cool. Remove the skins from the garlic cloves and Serrano peppers. The steaming action while cooling makes removing the skins easy. Depending upon how spicy you like your salsa, you can remove some, all, or none of the seeds from the peppers. Toss the peppers into the bowl of the food processor.

Chop white onion and briefly blanch in hot water (I boil a bit, but very hot tap water works too). Drain and put in food processor. Rinse cilantro and coarsely chop. Keep the stems in as they’ve plenty of flavor. Blend everything and pour into a bowl. Add salt, pepper, and lime juice to taste.

I’m also moving Okie Girl’s tomato salsa as it’s a great ketchup alternative. [Hope you don’t mind me moving it up into the main post, Okie!]

ORIGINAL TOMATO SALSA

This recipe came via one of the old regulars at a neighborhood dive bar I used to frequent to play shuffleboard. His nickname is “Lumpy” as a result of a serious car accident in which his neck was broken. He published the recipe in a cookbook the bar patrons all contributed to many years ago. Another regular patron who owned a local restaurant then began serving it in his restaurant and reported it was a huge success. I made some modifications that I’ll describe after the original recipe and began giving it as holiday gifts. It has been so popular I am now up to giving away 4-6 pint cases every Christmas.

Ingredients

6 lbs plus 3 oz canned chopped tomatoes
¾ C dried onion
½ C sugar
1 ¼ C white vinegar
3-4 jalapeno peppers (to taste)
1/8 C pickling salt
¾ Tbs chili powder
1 tsp pepper
1 tsp cumin
½ tsp alum
1 small can green chilies

Preparation

Mix all ingredients together in large pan. Bring to a boil, then remove from heat. After it cools, pour into jars and keep refrigerated. Makes about 8 pints.

Modifications

I use fresh chopped onion instead of dried, reduce the sugar a bit, and use a mix of canned and fresh tomatoes. This tends to make a rather thin salsa, so I use half fresh tomatoes and half canned crushed tomatoes to add some body. I also add a couple of cloves of minced garlic, a large chopped bell pepper, and about a half bunch of chopped cilantro. If I’m going to be using the salsa immediately, I reduce the vinegar a bit (to about 1C) but leave vinegar as is if I’m canning it.

Since this makes a more liquid salsa than I typically prefer, I frequently strain off some of the liquid and use it as seasoning in other dishes (such as using it for part of the cooking liquid for rice).

So, what’s your better burger?

BB (for beef burger of course)

Fallout from PLIVA v. Mensing

Something I’ve been keeping an eye on is the effects of the SCOTUS ruling in PLIVA v. Mensing, limiting liability of generic drug makers for side effects of the drug that are not included on the warning label from the brand-name drugs.

A couple of links.

First:

In the wake of Mensing, state courts in Pennsylvania, California, and New Jersey have been considering what to do with thousands of suits by metoclopramide users who claim they weren’t warned about the long-term risks of developing a neurological disorder. (The cases were mostly filed in state courts after the Judicial Panel on Multidistrict Litigation denied a bid to consolidate the metoclopramide litigation at a federal level.) What’s notable is that judges in those states have taken markedly different approaches to their metoclopramide dockets: In Philadelphia and San Francisco, judges have allowed thousands of personal-injury suits against the generics to move forward despite Mensing. But on Friday Superior Court Judge Carol Higbee in Atlantic City, New Jersey, ruled that generics are largely off the hook in her court.

Alison Frankel at Thomson Reuters. In addition to the Higbee decision, there was another case in NJ (in re Fosamax)

A likely case for eventual SCOTUS review, to reconcile the decisions in PLIVA v. Mensing and Wyeth v. Levine, which provided for damages to plaintiffs who suffered side effects from brand-name drugs.

On Wednesday, the Court of Appeals for the First Circuit upheld a $21 million verdict awarded to a woman who suffered grievous injuries as a result of taking a generic pain medication prescribed by her doctor. In its appeal to the First Circuit, the generic drug manufacturer, Mutual Pharmaceutical Company, argued that the design defect claims were preempted by the Hatch-Waxman Amendments to the Federal, Drug, and Cosmestic Act (“FDCA”) under the Supreme Court’s 2011 decision PLIVA v. Mensing.

Bartlett v. Mutual

A NYT article about people suffering from side effects of the generics. Included in the article is a mention of a Public Citizen petition of the FDA to allow generics to use the Changes Being Effected process to change their warning labels. The FDA has apparently postponed their decision on this petition.

And Sen. Leahy has introduced a bill to address the PLIVA/Levine discrepancy. The bill is here with its House counterpart, introduced by Rep. Van Hollen here.

Friday Fodder…

I read the following story and I figured that it was a good way to cap off a week.  It’s one of those things that I find funny even though there are financial implications to it…  The title of it: 

This Is Not a Joke: Government Issues Study of a Study About Studies

The Pentagon was inundated with so many studies in 2010 that it commissioned a study to determined how much it cost to produce all those studies.

Now the Government’s Accounting Office has reviewed the Pentagon’s study and concluded in a report this week that it’s a flop.

The study of a study of studies began in 2010 when Defense Secretary Robert Gates complained that his department was “awash in taskings for reports and studies.” He wanted to know how much they cost.

Two years later, the Pentagon review is still continuing, which prompted Congress to ask the GAO to look over the Pentagon’s shoulder. What they found lacked military precision.

The GAO found only nine studies that had been scrutinized by the Pentagon review, but the military was unable to “readily retrieve documentation” for six of  the reports.

The Department of Defense’s “approach is not fully consistent with relevant cost estimating best practices and cost accounting standards,” the GAO concluded. In fact, they often did not include items like manpower, the report found.

The Pentagon “partially concurs” with the GAO’s report.

The cost of the study of the study of the studies was not immediately available from the GAO.

Morning Report 5.11.12

Vital Statistics:

 

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1349.3 -8.3 -0.61%
Eurostoxx Index 2231.1 -16.3 -0.72%
Oil (WTI) 96.03 -1.0 -1.08%
LIBOR 0.467 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.19 0.078 0.10%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.85% -0.02%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 175.3 -0.1  

Markets are lower this morning after J.P. Morgan announced a $2 billion trading loss in its Chief Investment Office unit. April PPI showed inflation is behaving at the wholesale level. Bonds and MBS are higher.

The JP Morgan story is interesting. The position was supposed to be a hedge the bank’s credit exposure. However, if you read the Blooomberg story, it suggests the bank had sold protection on the Markit Series 9 CDX North American investment grade index. Which means it wasn’t hedging anything at all – selling protection and extending credit (which is what the bank does) are similar risks. The story goes on to speculate that it may have been some sort of spread bet, where the bank was short long-dated protection and long short-dated protection. Regardless, this position in no way hedges the bank’s overall business, at least as far as I can tell. Good luck getting out, guys. J.P. Morgan is going to get their eyes ripped out on the exit.

This incident will not cause a systemic risk in any way – if anything it will simply give ammo to the proponents of the Volcker Rule. A $2 billion loss for a bank that made $19 billion the year before and has $176 billion in equity is not fatal in any way. It also shows (again) the fundamental weakness in Value at Risk (VaR), which basically tells you the best case scenario when the fit hits the shan. JP Morgan stock is down 9.2% this morning. 

The CFPB has proposed rules for mortgage origination costs, which bans origination charges that vary by the size of the loan. Rob Christman summed it up perfectly:  “I’m sure that consumer groups are happy about it – just wait until they can’t find anyone who’s going to do a $100,000 loan.” The CFPB has also re-affirmed the anti-steering rules by the Fed.

The Facebook IPO is supposedly garnering lukewarm interest, at least at the price being discussed. It must be bad – I heard Mark Zuckerberg was seen this morning in a suit and tie, eschewing his traditional hoodie. The underwriters still have time to whip up excitement for the deal which should list on May 17 under they symbol FB.

Morning Report 5.10.12

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1359.1 8.1 0.60%
Eurostoxx Index 2248.8 23.2 1.04%
Oil (WTI) 96.89 0.1 0.08%
LIBOR 0.467 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.01 -0.075 -0.09%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.89% 0.07%  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 175.4 0.2  

Markets are higher this morning on no real news. Yesterday’s technical support at 1345 on the S&P 500 held, and perhaps we are just having an oversold bounce. Bonds and MBS are down as well. The Spanish government seized Bankia, the county’s largest real estate lender 

Initial Jobless claims for last week came in at 367k, more or less in line with estimates. 

Hey, Fannie Mae made some money! And they don’t need a check this quarter either.

The National Association of Realtors released their latest quarterly report yesterday, noting that improving sales and declining inventory are creating more balanced conditions. The inventory of homes for sale fell to 2.37MM existing homes from 3.03MM in Q111. The median home price fell slighlty to $158,100 from $158,700. This drops the median home price to median income ratio to 3.075, the lowest level since 1976, and below its historical range of 3.15 – 3.55. Prices after a bubble tend to overcorrect, and it certainly is possible that prices could go lower – however we are officially in “overcorrection” mode.

Chart:  Median House Price to Median Income:

 

 

Life in Desolation Canyon

Haaaaaahaaaaaa, did I catch you with the title?  Since it’s a bit of a slow news day, except for the fact that Obama finally evolved, and I’m not particularly interested in controversy right this second, I’ll just go ahead and put up a boring post.

I’m not sure if any of you will be interested in this or not but I thought I’d mention that our youngest daughter is off to Desolation Canyon again to finish her research in fluvial geology (her mountain pictured above).   She’s working on her Master’s at the Colorado School of Mines and will be finished with her thesis by the end of Sept. or early Oct. and has a job with an oil company in Denver beginning on Nov. 1st.   This will be her last opportunity to get all the information she needs to complete her research.

I thought some of you might be curious about life on the river.

Apparently, her research area is somewhat unique, even for a geologist, in that it is so remote and lacking in amenities, so to speak.  She is one of only two students on campus allowed to requisition the satellite phone and also takes a gps locator device she uses to send a message every day with their location mapped out.  There are three possible messages which are pre-recorded, “all’s well”, “send help soon”, and “send help now”.  She will use the satellite phone to get weather updates every five or six days and also of course, if there is an extreme emergency or if the locator doesn’t work for some reason.

This will be her third trip.  The first was about this time last year and it was a group consisting of her academic adviser, her industry adviser, a PhD student, two river guides and herself.  They spent 10 days on the river in two different locations and she was able to see the lay of the land, and begin measurements and analysis of “her mountain”, which apparently is a fantastic out crop with lots of useful information for the oil industry.  She’s taken a real right turn since being a water consultant.

The weather was dicey this time last year and still very cold at night and they had several thunder storms and plenty of hail.  During the first big down pour most of the tents were flooded at their primary camp and they had to dry everything out, not easy in cool weather and then set up new sleeping quarters on higher ground and dig moats around the tents for drainage.   She and her advisers spent a lot of time on the mountain investigating the most useful areas and setting up a strategy to acquire all the information she was going to need to finish her research in two additional trips.  There is a very narrow window of opportunity to get to the site because of weather and river conditions.

The second trip was at the end of August last year and she and Chelsea, her river guide for all three of her trips, spent 21 days in the baking sun (average temp of 100).   The raft above is packed for two people for 21 days. Her site is only accessible by rafting down the Green River for three days and then another full day rafting out.  They spent some time directly across the river photographing the outcrop with a gigapan system and visiting a natural spring where they were able to acquire fresh water to bring back to camp for purification.   They set up a secondary camp near the old McPherson Ranch and spent a couple of nights there.  The rest of the time they spent hiking up “her mountain” and while Chelsea found a shady spot to read, our daughter “worked the channels”.  Chelsea was there just in case of accident or injury as the site itself is several miles from camp across a large meadow and then up.  Even with really good walkie-talkies it would still take someone a couple hours to get from camp to the research site so Chelsea was her shadow in the field.

After the first couple of days and a little experience with heat exhaustion, they began heading out in the pre-dawn hours of the morning using their head lamps to begin the hike.  This way she was able to begin her work as the sun came up and get off the mountain before the most intense heat of the day did them in.  Back at camp, after cooling down in the river, and with a gas powered generator she would upload her photos from the day and work on her notes for several hours.  Chelsea would cook and maintain the camp.  This was followed by dinner and a quick game or two of rummy and then lights out.

By day 14 or 15 they were out of ice and perishables were either gone or inedible.  They kept water and beer (yep) cool by floating them in the river.  The toilet (above) was full of flying bugs, which was a little nerve wracking, and their clothes, hair and bodies looked and smelled as if they were never going to be clean again.  The Green River is not exactly the clearest water in the world for bathing or doing laundry.  She’s a very accomplished outdoor person and has spent quite a bit of time in the middle of nowhere for days on end but this trip really tested her.  Of course afterward a sense of accomplishment and the benefit of some great stories and useful research information erase most of the worst memories of the trip, and there were more than a few.  She’s actually looking forward to the next trip.

She leaves Saturday for her third trip.  This one will be four weeks (28 days) and she’s taking along another geologist as well as her trusted side kick and new best friend Chelsea, the river guide.  Our daughter is 6’ tall and no shrinking violet but she needs help this time because there are a few areas on the mountain she needs to scale down in order to get the last batch of measurements she’d really like to get.  They’re also going to work on a project that will depict scale as it’s critical to her project.  Her search for a research assistant lasted all year and finally she found Neil, who is apparently excited to experience all the mountain has to offer.  He’s also really smart and will be a good brain storming partner to help solve the remaining challenges.   She’s hoping of course that they’ll still be friends once it’s over.   We’ll be looking for the “all’s well” signal everyday and waiting for that phone call once they get off the raft in the little town of Green River on June 9th.