Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| S&P Futures | 1836.9 | 4.4 | 0.24% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 3119.8 | 9.1 | 0.29% |
| Oil (WTI) | 92.79 | 0.5 | 0.50% |
| LIBOR | 0.242 | 0.001 | 0.52% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 81.05 | 0.026 | 0.03% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.97% | -0.02% | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 104.5 | 0.0 | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103.3 | 0.0 | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 200.7 | -0.2 | |
| BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.52 |
Markets are up this morning as initial jobless claims drop to 330k. Of course last week contained the New Year’s holiday so it is tough to read too much into this number. Alcoa kicks off fourth quarter earnings season after the bell. Bonds and MBS are up small.
There was nothing earth-shattering in the FOMC minutes which were released yesterday afternoon (the bond market basically yawned at the whole thing). Things were more or less characterized as expanding “moderately”, with a few “modests” thrown in as well. Manufacturing expanded “briskly” which was a first. The Fed did mention the issue of possible capital losses on its portfolio, and particularly how that would affect the reputation of the Fed. They talk about how spin the losses – basically telling people that you need to look at the whole picture, not just the Fed’s p/l. In other words, the Fed may end up passing losses to Treasury, which will increase the deficit, but you have to take into account the fact that this process helped the economy, which increased tax revenues. Guess dynamic scoring is permitted for the Fed but not for anyone who proposes a tax cut.
Retailers are reporting same-store sales this morning, so far it looks looks like a mixed bag with Costco and Macy’s beating estimates, while apparel retailers like Limited Brands missing.
It is official: the FHFA has delayed the increase in G-fees and the new new LLPAs. Luckily for lock desks, the FHFA will give 120 day’s notice if they decide to change things. Borrowers are probably going to save 3/8 of a point with this. The NAR is onboard with this move.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Did they really think they could get away with this?
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/01/08/Frequent-Obama-Donor-Heading-IRS-Conservative-Targeting-Investigation
Signed, Epstein’s mother.
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There is no scandal wingnut!
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In other news, the Abomination is going so well they’re extending payment deadlines until late January!
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/4562955?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003&ir=Politics
Thanks 52%!
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Sad but true.
https://twitter.com/BenHowe/status/421270527433400320
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New Democratic defense on why the Abomination rollout sucks so bad, a aside from the fact that the law is completely unworkable.
Out: Government is incompetent!
In: Government is impotent!
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/01/democrats-obamacare-big-business-blame-101934.html?hp=r5
If only someone would have warned us then this could have been avoided.
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I tried. I really did.
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http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/367992/say-what-michael-walsh
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Why do Democrats hate the unemployed?
https://twitter.com/TPCarney/status/421385467565572097
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They must be racists or something..
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This tends to confirm a lot of what I have always thought about self-declared “independents”. The declaration has a lot more to do with social acceptance than actual lack of partisan ideology.
Earlier this week, Gallup announced that Americans are more politically independent than ever. But, like most survey findings, the fact that 42 percent of Americans now identify as independent is not as straightforward as it initially seems. Indeed, as John Sides pointed out, most Americans who identify as independent often act in a partisan fashion, even if they are not as partisans as the true believers.
So why are people telling surveys they are independent when, in fact, they often behave in a fashion more similar to partisans than to true independents? And– aside from giving pundits a chance to proclaim that Americans are “declaring independence” – does this have any real consequences for politics? We have spent the past year and a half trying to answer these very questions.
A key to understanding independents is media coverage of politics in Washington. When people see politics in the news and entertainment media, they see partisan gridlock and disagreement. Partisans are portrayed as uncooperative, uncompromising and angry.
This perception of partisans leads ordinary people to be embarrassed about admitting – including to pollsters – that they identify with a political party. Instead, people have come to believe that they will make a better impression if they say they are independent.
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I consider myself pretty ideological, if not necessarily partisan, but I don’t necessarily consider the Republican Party as the always best vehicle for my ideology.
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I think we’re outliers JNC. I also tend to think people use independent as shorthand for moderate … which i’m anything but.
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nova:
I also tend to think people use independent as shorthand for moderate.
I think that is correct.
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I tend to think that people use independent as shorthand for “I vote Republican but don’t want to admit it.”
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Mich:
I tend to think that people use independent as shorthand for “I vote Republican but don’t want to admit it.”
Given the relatively stable split between self-identified R’s, D’s, and I’s, that seems unlikely. If it were true, one would expect R’s to routinely dominate elections.
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@ScottC: “Given the relatively stable split between self-identified R’s, D’s, and I’s, that seems unlikely. If it were true, one would expect R’s to routinely dominate elections.”
Yup. Also, don’t forget the common conservative accusation (from Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter and others) that moderates and independents are all liberals who don’t want to admit it. Also, some people do vote for Republicans and Democrats or Republicans and Libertarians or Democrats and Socialists or Green and thus consider themselves independents and not allied with any party.
I always find it interesting how similar the glib critiques of conservatives/Republicans by Democrats/liberals are to the glib critiques of liberals/Democrats by conservatives/Republicans. It seems natural, I suppose, that conservatives would be ashamed of their ideology to a liberal, who would be ashamed of it, and vice-versa, but generally people think they’ve made the right choice, politically. They might not want to come out if it will mean their job, but otherwise they tend to be proud of their ideology.
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