Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Arcanaut
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1541.8 | 2.7 | 0.18% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2690.5 | 10.6 | 0.40% |
| Oil (WTI) | 90.67 | 0.2 | 0.27% |
| LIBOR | 0.281 | 0.001 | 0.36% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 82.41 | -0.045 | -0.05% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.96% | 0.03% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 194.9 | -0.3 |
Markets are slightly higher after initial jobless claims came in lower than expected at 340k. Productivity fell as unit labor costs increased at a faster clip than expected. The ECB kept rates unchanged. Bonds and MBS are lower.
The Fed released the Beige Book yesterday, a sort of 10,000 – foot view of the economy. The words “modest” and “moderate” were used a lot. Residential Construction increased in most districts with the exception of Kansas City. Low inventories were squeezing prices higher in most districts. Banks reported that credit standards are beginning to loosen, and that very few mortgages are being held on their balance sheets.
The CoreLogic Home Price index increased 9.7% in January, the biggest increase since April 2006. Excluding distressed sales, they increased 9.0%. They anticipate a similar gain of 9.7% YOY for Feb, with a .3% month on month drop. This year’s seasonal slowdown has barely registered, which portends well for the summer selling season. Only Illinois and Delaware failed to report gains.
Now that the sequestration crisis is out of the way, it looks like the threat of a government shutdown late this month has gone away as well. The House passed a bill to fund the government through the rest of the year at sequestration levels. The Senate will make its own tweaks to soften some of the spending cuts, but there is a bipartisan optimism that we won’t have a shutdown. Separately, the President met with Congressional leaders in an attempt to figure out if there is room for a grand bargain on a package of tax increases and entitlement cuts. Lest the market think the all-clear has passed, we still have the debt ceiling to deal with in late summer.
The Mortgage Bankers Association responded to FHFA Head Ed DeMarco’s plan to rationalize and eventually replace the GSEs. “Proposals of this magnitude need a transparent process to engage with stakeholders, articulate objectives and demonstrate that stakeholder concerns have been evaluated and addressed… The Administration, Congress, and regulators need to engage with other stakeholders to move the ball forward. Until this happens, the uncertainty in the markets will persist and a full recovery of the housing market will remain elusive.” The Obama administration still regulates from the ivory tower and refuses to consult with the private sector. It happened in Dodd-Frank and it is happening again. I guess the concern over regulatory capture is a valid concern, but remaking the financial sector or the real estate markets without input from the people who actually do this stuff for a living is bound to have major unintended consequences.
One of the bigger issues regarding the new framework involves how to handle Federal guarantees. The government believes it has been underpricing (in other words, G-fees are too low) and it wants to increase them so they approach the pricing for PMI. One side effect is that the mortgage insurers, once given up for dead, are back.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Seniors to sell homes — and nobody will be there to buy them.
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/housing/2013/03/aging-baby-boomers-and-next-housing-crisis/4863/
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Austin sales taxes up 15% year over year, population growing at 5500 per month.
We may well become Texas’ fourth city with over one million population before the 2016 election [2020 census was predicted time for that milestone].
NoVA, I am going to be able to sell my home, if, as, and when.
Statewide sales tax revenue up 4% year over year. When I have Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio figures I will forward. I am guessing the cities and metros are way up and the Big Empty is flat or down.
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Mark, with the boom from franking in the Permian basin, I’d say its steady or up.
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Agree for Midland-Odessa.
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“Now that the sequestration crisis is out of the way, it looks like the threat of a government shutdown late this month has gone away as well. The House passed a bill to fund the government through the rest of the year at sequestration levels. The Senate will make its own tweaks to soften some of the spending cuts, but there is a bipartisan optimism that we won’t have a shutdown. Separately, the President met with Congressional leaders in an attempt to figure out if there is room for a grand bargain on a package of tax increases and entitlement cuts. Lest the market think the all-clear has passed, we still have the debt ceiling to deal with in late summer.”
Democrats really should hold out for a debt ceiling extension sufficient to cover FY2013 in exchange for accepting the post-sequester baseline. Any time a CR is passed, the debt ceiling should be increased sufficiently to cover the same time period as the CR.
Otherwise, this appears to be a total Republican victory especially if there is a reallocation that removes all the problems associated with unilateral cuts.
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Democrats really should hold out for a debt ceiling extension sufficient to cover FY2013 in exchange for accepting the post-sequester baseline.
You and I have been tooting this horn for weeks. I even suggested at PL that this was so obvious that folks in MD should write to Sen. Mikulski, who is in charge of the Senate version, to include this, because less would be political malpractice.
I am betting on political malpractice. We voted for Gary Johnson. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE PEOPLE.
If they do as you [and I] suggest, then there can be a true serious discussion of tax reform and entitlement reform. This seems to be in BHO’s head somewhere but he doesn’t know how to get into a position where he can talk about it and I think his recent invitations to R senators were his first in a long time, if ever!
LBJ and Sam Rayburn went over to the WH on a lot of Monday nights for liquor and poker and the interstate highway system and the 1957 civil rights act and a lot of other stuff. Find some stuff you agree on and do it.
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Mark:
We voted for Gary Johnson. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE PEOPLE.
Obama would not be president today if he did not get elected in 2008. I’d argue that whoever voted for O in ’08 is indeed responsible, even if they jumped ship in ’12 for an unelectable independent.
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Mark:
This seems to be in BHO’s head somewhere…
What makes you think O is interested in a serious discussion about entitlement reform?
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http://tinyurl.com/cxuj7gj
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This is not an attempt to bypass Boehner so much as a way to try and connect to him and see if Boehner will bypass Regular Order. Alas, I think he will (Boehner) but it would be nice if Ryan said that the Speaker will be happy to have the appropriate House committee take up the Senates 2014 budget.
Ryan has his job at the sufferance of Boehner. Cantor is elected and would be a way to bypass Boehner, but Obama’s ego, or Cantor declined a meeting, is not letting that happen. Who the eff does Thrush think he ‘s fooling with this horseshit?
http://www.politico.com/politico44/2013/03/obama-invites-paul-ryan-to-lunch-158708.html?hp=f1
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I voted for Obama in ’08 and would have voted for him in ’12 if I thought it was necessary. The country isn’t perfect, but it’s in far better shape than if we’d had McCain or Romney in the WH.
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Mich:
The country isn’t perfect, but it’s in far better shape than if we’d had McCain or Romney in the WH.
Whether the nation is in better or worse shape as a consequence of Obama is a matter of what one values. Obviously your values are different from mine. (You don’t even care what kind of TV you watch!) But certainly you share in the responsibility (whether you call it credit or blame) for what Obama and his comrades have done to the nation.
Or perhaps I should say have continued to do to the nation, since we have been on this statist/collectivist path for quite some time, since well before Obama surfaced.
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“ScottC, on March 7, 2013 at 11:43 am said:
Mark:
We voted for Gary Johnson. WE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE PEOPLE.
Obama would not be president today if he did not get elected in 2008. I’d argue that whoever voted for O in ’08 is indeed responsible, even if they jumped ship in ’12 for an unelectable independent.”
Fair enough, I’ll take the hit for this.
“ScottC, on March 7, 2013 at 11:46 am said:
Mark:
This seems to be in BHO’s head somewhere…
What makes you think O is interested in a serious discussion about entitlement reform?”
He invited just Republican Senators to dinner and is also reaching out to Paul Ryan.
Sequester hysteria seems to have stopped and been replaced with “We don’t want a shutdown and will sign a CR that abides by previous agreements”. Previous agreements being of course the sequester.
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jnc;
He invited just Republican Senators to dinner and is also reaching out to Paul Ryan.
We’ll see, I guess. I don’t trust a word this guy utters, and I suspect this as just another political angle/gambit to sucker R’s into something, not a genuine attempt at conciliation. There is nothing about his tenure to date that would lead me to believe he is sincere in the slightest about any outreach to the R’s.
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Harold Meyerson is incoherent:
I see no way how defined benefit and portable can be made to work together in practice. Defined benefit is a relic of life time employment at a single company.
This also leaves aside the idea that “enabling seniors to retire when they wish” should be a public policy goal.
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And progressive bloggers come right out and admit it:
“Phony cuts are still the most logical budget compromise
Posted by Jonathan Bernstein on March 7, 2013 at 2:59 pm”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2013/03/07/phony-cuts-are-still-the-most-logical-budget-compromise/
Hence the lack of trust in Obama’s spending cuts.
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jnc:
Hence the lack of trust in Obama’s spending cuts.
I don’t know why anyone would trust any progressive who claims to want to cut government spending. It is a matter of ideology, which revolves around using government to redirect wealth into activities preferred by progressives.
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But certainly you share in the responsibility (whether you call it credit or blame) for what Obama and his comrades have done to the nation.
Yup, I’ll own Lily Ledbetter, Obamacare, etc., etc., etc.
And I’ll continue to rail against Gitmo, warrentless wiretapping, drone strikes, etc., etc., etc. which Obama has continued.
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jnc:
I’m just now starting to catch up on today’s PL (busy morning). This may be the best sentence I’ve ever seen you write:
One should be careful not to time the long game so that the endgame comes after his term of office ends.
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he is sincere in the slightest about any outreach to the R’s.
Given that their publicly stated goal at the very beginning of his presidency was to restrict him to one term, why should he? They’re all presumably grown up and know the rules–optics are one thing, reality is another.
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FWIW, I am skeptical too.. I think this is just a ruse to see if he can pick off a couple Republicans and jam through a tax hike in exchange for phony cuts.
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“Given that their publicly stated goal at the very beginning of his presidency was to restrict him to one term, why should he? They’re all presumably grown up and know the rules–optics are one thing, reality is another.”
I am always fascinated by this bit of hurt feelings. Do you think that Senator Leahy’s goal was Bush’s Re-election, whether he stated it publicly or not?
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Interesting. Would Bush AG have done this?
http://m.washingtonexaminer.com/white-house-holder-respond-to-rand-paul-the-answer-is-no/article/2523555#.UTj96_q9Kc0
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The part about McConnell that is always left out is where he follows up with “I don’t want the president to fail, I want him to change.” and “If he does a Clintonian backflip and meets us halfway on some of the biggest issues, it’s not inappropriate for us to do business with him.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/when-did-mcconnell-say-he-wanted-to-make-obama-a-one-term-president/2012/09/24/79fd5cd8-0696-11e2-afff-d6c7f20a83bf_blog.html
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Man, there is a helluva lot of this going on! Just as Anthony Weiner!
http://twitchy.com/2013/03/07/is-state-dept-buying-samira-ibrahims-farcical-i-was-hacked-excuse/?utm_source=autotweet&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=twitter
Breitbart must have faked his own death!
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As obama’s gun control agenda looks more and more in trouble, gun control advocates aren’t complaining. Why? obama told them he’ll grant access and let them in on the drafting of legislation on the condition that they only offer silence or support of whatever happens.
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/how-white-house-quieted-gun-control-groups-88546.html?hp=t1_3
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Like it or not, no group of Republican congressmen has ever been as obstructionist as this group has been when dealing with Obama. And no group of Democratic congressmen has ever been this obstructionist, period.
As Scott said, own it.
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“And progressive bloggers come right out and admit it:
“Phony cuts are still the most logical budget compromise
Posted by Jonathan Bernstein on March 7, 2013 at 2:59 pm””
Republicans should publicly offer phony tax increases to expose this game for the bullshit that it is…
“Revenues will increase by 1.2 trillion based on expected capital gains when the S&P 500 goes to 2500 based on the fact that we are getting our fiscal house in order. “
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“Like it or not, no group of Republican congressmen has ever been as obstructionist as this group has been when dealing with Obama. And no group of Democratic congressmen has ever been this obstructionist, period.
As Scott said, own it.”
How are you defining obstructionist? Many are calling him a successful President.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/march_april_2012/features/obamas_top_50_accomplishments035755.php
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2012/10/barack-obama-is-a-great-president-yes-great.html
Do Republicans just suck at obstructionism?
Also, couldn’t it be argued that the American electorate wants obstructionism? They elected Obama and a Republican House. Twice.
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Ta-Nehisi Coates is quite humorous on eating oatmeal:
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“Michigoose, on March 7, 2013 at 1:38 pm said:
jnc:
I’m just now starting to catch up on today’s PL (busy morning). This may be the best sentence I’ve ever seen you write:
One should be careful not to time the long game so that the endgame comes after his term of office ends.“
I truly grow weary of the partisan argument that every political defeat for President Obama is some sort of set up for a long game of 11th dimensional chess when it’s obvious that he miscalculated and lost.
The argument that he will never have to run another campaign is misplaced as well when it’s obvious that he’s campaigning for a Democratic Congressional majority in 2014.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/stymied-by-a-gop-house-obama-looks-ahead-to-2014-to-cement-his-legacy/2013/03/02/5f6f8b94-827d-11e2-a350-49866afab584_story.html
http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2013/03/obama-2014-congress-house-democratic-majority
If there’s a Plan B if that fails, it’s not obvious and the likely result will be a 2 year lame duck Presidency from 2014 – 2016.
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jnc:
I’m beginning to believe that he never was the rope-a-dope or 11-dimensional chess master I thought he was, but a supremely bad negotiator.
I’m hoping it’s just end of the winter blahs, but I’m not holding my breath.
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That is, BTW, not to say that I don’t think that he’s been lightyears better than any Republican alternative, just that I’m disappointed.
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I’m totally indifferent to the President’s political problems, which are mostly of his own making.
Recent blatant example.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/sequester-spin-obamas-incorrect-claim-of-capitol-janitors-receiving-a-pay-cut/2013/03/01/3407535c-82a9-11e2-b99e-6baf4ebe42df_blog.html
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Worth noting, but I don’t buy the results:
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Republican sequester victory part 2:
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it will lock in the sequester through the end of the year.
Translation: job prospects just got skinnier.
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Wow, the “Don’t blame me I’m just thinking about the country” excuse.
Must been running guns to Mexican drug lords as well, that’s the only “get out of jail free” card I heard he honors.
http://thehill.com/blogs/on-the-money/banking-financial-institutions/286583-holder-big-banks-size-complicates-prosecution-efforts
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McWing (from the article):
Sens. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) pressed Holder on the issue in a letter sent in February, airing their disappointment that no major criminal charges had been filed against banks or their employees in the wake of the financial crisis. And Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) drew headlines when she blasted financial regulators during a separate hearing for failing to bring any major financial institutions to trial since the meltdown.
Why hasn’t Holder or financial regulators brought any government agencies or representatives to trial since the meltdown? Where’s is the outrage over the “influence” that scumbags like Barney Frank and Christopher Dodd have that prevent Holder from prosecuting them for, er, unstated but assumed crimes causing the financial crisis? The government has at least as much to account for in relation to the financial crisis than does “too big to jail” banks.
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Scott, absolutely agree especially in regards to Dodd and Frank.
http://m.youtube.com/#/watch?v=LPSDnGMzIdo&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DLPSDnGMzIdo
http://stopcreditor.com/senator-dodd-to-pay-off-countrywide-mortgages/
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McWing:
Good clip of the FOX report. I’ll never understand anyone who pays on iota of attention to politicians complaining about others having undo influence over some aspect of the political process.
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“Michigoose, on March 7, 2013 at 4:05 pm said:
it will lock in the sequester through the end of the year.
Translation: job prospects just got skinnier.”
How is the hunt going? Traveling to DC anytime soon?
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If this is true, what should happen to the State Department officials who determined she was hacked?
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/samira-ibrahim-speaks_706609.html
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By the way, I read Sargent’s hilarious post about the D’s hunkering down and hoping for the fever to break. It’s funny in that the underlying theme from Sargent and the D’s he’s talking to is that there have been enough cuts (in the rate of increase in spending) and that the government isn’t spending enough. Also, they figure many R’s will capitulate because of Defense cuts (in the rate of increase in their spending.). What’s interesting to me is what the R’s who will capitulate, of that I have no doubt, think the D’s objective with defense spending really is. Do they think that if they agree to fuck the American people over by again increasing taxes, that the D’s will leave defense spending alone?
And the comments are what floats in a sewer. Geez, what is it that is gotten out of posting there, seriously?
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Geez, Cruz’s bill is right out of McCarthy’s play book. What a fucking fascisti.
http://www.cruz.senate.gov/record.cfm?id=339952
What a blast it would be if this came to the floor, no? Would Durbin again take the lead in denouncing it, like last night’s proposed Sense of the Senate?
Is this a wedge issue for those on the left?
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jnc:
Lost a long response to you when I had to reboot, but I’ll try to recapitulate.
There seems to be a doughnut hole in hiring; immediately inside and about 30 – 50 miles outside of DC (and out to the coasts) nobody is hiring, and they’ll tell you it’s because of the sequester. Baltimore, on the other hand (which is where I’ve been concentrating, because you have to concentrate somewhere) is hiring and I’ve got several leads there.
I’ve put everything on hold for a week while I go to the MBL to teach a course (that’s why I’ll be in Boston tomorrow evening) and have some fun. With any luck I’ll be in DC a couple of weeks from now for some interviews. After that I’ll be back in Boston in April to attend a big science meeting (patrially on NoVA;s advice and partially on my own inclination); if I’ve already got a job offer by then it’s gravy, if not, it’s a good chance to network some more. I’ve never been in Boston with free time in the evening, so I’m looking forward to that.
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Mark, Thanks for the post. 😦
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