Morning Report: Inflation hits a 30 year high

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 4,663 -16.2
Oil (WTI) 84.22 0.33
10 year government bond yield   1.48%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   3.17%

Stocks are lower this morning after the inflation numbers came in hotter than expected. Bonds and MBS are down.

 

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% MOM and 6.2% on an annual basis. Ex-food and energy, it rose 4.6%. This was the highest reading in 30 years. Energy prices drove the month-over-month increase, but we are seeing increases across the board. Aside from energy, meat / poultry / fish and used cars were up big.

 

Mortgage Applications rose 5.5% last week as purchases rose 3% and refis rose 7%. “Although overall activity remains close to January 2020 lows, homeowners acted on the decrease in rates,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Refinance activity was up 7 percent overall, with gains in both conventional and government refinances. Additionally, the average loan balance for a refinance application was the highest in a month.”

 

Initial Jobless Claims came in at 267k last week. We are still pretty elevated compared to pre-pandemic numbers.

 

United Wholesale reported third quarter numbers yesterday. Originations rose 16% YOY and 6% QOQ to $63 billion. Gain on sale margins came in at 94 basis points, an improvement from the 81 bps in Q2 but much lower than the 318 from a year ago. For the fourth quarter, they are guiding for gain on sale margins to come in between 85 and 105 basis points and for production to fall by around 11%.

22 Responses

  1. This isn’t likely to end well:

    “Faced with soaring Ds and Fs, schools are ditching the old way of grading

    By Paloma Esquivel
    Staff Writer
    Nov. 8, 2021 5 AM PT”

    https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2021-11-08/as-ds-and-fs-soar-schools-ditch-inequitable-grade-systems

    Like

    • On the bright side, we’ll all be employable into our 90s.

      Liked by 1 person

        • One of the prosecutors looks just like Gary Oldman, for what it’s worth. It’s uncanny.

          Like

        • Also, for no particular reason, I always thought Tony Dorsett was a helluva running back and I don’t think he gets enough credit. He is over shadowed by Emmitt Smith and, to a certain extent, Herschel Walker. He also played at the same time as Sweetness so that doesn’t help either.

          Tony Dorsett, even though I thought you were aloof and an asshole at the time, I salute you!

          Like

      • I suspect this may be related:

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        • If you follow the link about discrimination, it is nothing real, just the usual kvetching about transgender bathrooms, uniforms, and complaining about religious employers. In other words, no one is saying “we won’t hire you because you are gay.”

          I am reminded of this paragraph by Taibbi:

          Adherents to this theology are characterized by a boundless, almost Trumpian capacity for self-pity, even as they’re advocating setting you on fire. They can make wrapping fishwiches sound like digging coal in Matewan, being deprived of a smartphone like being whipped by Centurions, and they matter because everyone, including especially Democratic Party politicians, is afraid of the fallout that comes with telling them to shut the fuck up. So their “ideas” spread like cancer.

          Like

        • i can’t get into the details, but Mrs NoVa is having a huge problem with her younger staff.

          everything is “gaslighting this”, or “i feel unsafe”

          Like

        • There are people in my company who put their pronouns in the email signature.

          Like

        • Same here. Lots of our vendors do. I ignore it and don’t do it and nobody has recommended we do it … and even they did I wouldn’t do it.

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        • Which is funny considering how much time people who “feel unsafe” spend gaslighting everybody.

          Like

        • We have engineered two generations of useless men and entitled women.

          Yea, edumacation!

          Liked by 1 person

    • That’s the answer! Make it impossible to even identify the 3% of kids who turn out smart and well-educated despite it all.

      Like

  2. I haven’t been following the rittenhouse trial too closely, other than the obvious disconnect between what i’ve seen online vs. radio and the Post.

    but it must be going well for his defense, otherwise, the post wouldn’t be running this:

    “As Kyle Rittenhouse trial nears end, judge’s decisions from the bench come under scrutiny”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/as-kyle-rittenhouse-trial-nears-end-judges-decisions-from-the-bench-come-under-scrutiny/2021/11/10/93cd45c6-3dad-11ec-9ef1-5cd499f0a123_story.html

    Like

    • Yes. This was key:

      “As Mr. Grosskreutz described the seconds before Mr. Rittenhouse shot him, he was shown photos that captured him pointing his gun at Mr. Rittenhouse.

      “So when you were standing three to five feet from him with your arms up in the air, he never fired, right?” Corey Chirafisi, a defense lawyer, asked.

      “Correct,” Mr. Grosskreutz answered.

      “It wasn’t until you pointed your gun at him, advanced on him with your gun — now your hands down, pointed at him — that he fired, right?” Mr. Chirafisi said.

      “Correct,” he said.”

      Like

  3. I think this Katie Porter quote in a Vox piece on the SALT deduction has the ramifications of lifting the SALT deduction cap exactly backwards:

    “Legislators in favor of lifting the SALT deduction cap include Reps. Tom Suozzi (D-NY), Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ), and Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) — all of whom represent districts with lots of high-earning individuals paying high taxes. But high-profile progressives, like Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), are also in favor — in fact, Porter, whose district in California had a median household income of $115,427 and median property value of $794,400 in 2019, has been a driving force behind raising the SALT cap.

    In September, Porter defended her position on the Pod Save America podcast, arguing that keeping the current SALT cap or eliminating the deduction altogether would mean taxpayers would essentially be double-paying some taxes.

    “No American with the same income level, the same earning power, the same salary, should owe more federal taxes just because of where they live,” Porter said.”

    https://www.vox.com/2021/11/6/22766735/salt-deduction-cap-democrats-biden

    The SALT deduction actually does the opposite of what she claims, namely it makes an “American with the same income level, the same earning power, the same salary” owe less Federal taxes than those who live in places where there are no state or local taxes to claim as a deduction. There is no “double-paying” of some taxes, just the lack of a subsidy for states with high state and local taxes.

    It’s telling that this statement wasn’t even questioned in the piece.

    The real argument that was made for it originally was as justified subsidy due to the cost of living in those places with high state and local taxes and the high state and local taxes went towards state services that the federal government would otherwise have to provide.

    Like

    • It’s telling that this statement wasn’t even questioned in the piece.

      It is standard operation procedure for the Leftist Calvinball Logic

      AABFA

      Like

  4. Lol! Fuck ‘em

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    • I was talking to someone who was involved in Afghanistan. The US was focused on selling “girls rule” feminism to the Taliban.

      No wonder we lost.

      Like

    • This makes a lot more sense than a raid over a diary.

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      • I think a raid over a diary makes perfect sense. It helps both establish that the ruling class is different from the peasants and has more rights and benefits than you or I, and also enforces that fact.

        When you are at the top of the food chain you naturally want to make sure that the mass of peasants understand that they are not entitled to the same rights and freedoms as the ruling class and that the ruling class is not subject to rule of law of constitutional limitations the same way the peasants–and specifically anyone considered an enemy of the ruling class–is.

        Like

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