Morning Report: Rental collections slipping

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures4,33217.8
Oil (WTI)73.910.85
10 year government bond yield 1.33%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.08%

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

The global rally in bonds seems to be emanating from growth fears out of Asia. “Asia was seen as the poster child in pandemic response last year, but this year the slow vaccination rollout in most countries combined with the arrival of the delta variant means another lost year,” said Mark Matthews, head of Asia research with Bank Julius Baer & Co. in Singapore. “I suspect Asia will continue to lag as long as vaccination rollouts remain at their relatively sluggish levels and high daily new Covid counts prevent them from lifting mobility restrictions.”

Given that COVID issues are behind the lagging growth in Asia, I suspect this temporary respite in bond yields will be short-lived.

The number of homeowners in active forbearance plans continues to drop, according to Black Knight. Over the past month, loans in active forbearance have fallen 12% to 1.9 million.

No money down mortgages are back, under the rubric of 80/20 piggybacks. They aren’t cheap, with a 4.5% floor rate on the primary and 10% on the second, but I guess rising home prices cure all sorts of underwriting sins.

The National Multifamily Housing Council reported that 76.5% of renters made a full or partial rent payment by July 6 this year. This compares unfavorably to the 77.4% which paid by July 6 2020 and 79.7% that were collected by July 6 2019. Separately, momentum seems to be flagging in commercial real estate.

47 Responses

  1. This is a very long thread and I think there’s some naïveté in it but I think it captures the zeitgeist of a lot of Trump voters.

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    • That’s an excellent thread. And makes the pro-Trump case better than Trump himself or any surrogate has made it.

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    • I think that is the viewpoint of more than just Trump voters.

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      • Agreed. But lots of these people were on the “WTF” bandwagon early on. Not knowing anything of the pedigree of the Steele Dossier, I just knew a lot of the reporting on Russian collusion was either being completely mischaracterized (I mentioned standard network ping sweeps being characterized as hacking, for one thing–also the impossibility of definitively puting any internet traffic definitely on the Russian state, not to mention conflating the Ukraine and the Russian state as sources of Russian misinformation).

        But some ideas, like $250k of Facebook ad buys meant to juice what were actually overseas clickfarms and info-harvesting operations someone impacted the results of the election–which is what was said, all the info was right there–was like being show the color blue and told it was orange.

        So I’d argue that even before it was publicly known that the Steele dossier was paid propaganda and it was developed for the Clinton campaign and that a number of high profile intelligence agency sorts knew from the start it was bogus–there was a general perception on the part of anybody paying attention and with no incentive to buy into the obviously bullshit narrative that there was something rotten in the state of Denmark.

        And yes, more than just Trump voters. But there enough people who are kind of glad Trump is gone that doing a deep dive into the election results is . . . hard.

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        • But some ideas, like $250k of Facebook ad buys meant to juice what were actually overseas clickfarms and info-harvesting operations someone impacted the results of the election–which is what was said, all the info was right there–was like being show the color blue and told it was orange.

          This is the most common leftist rhetorical trick there is. Taking something small that is true and then using it to spin all sorts of fanciful theories.

          Global warming is illustrative. Everyone knows the temperature is going up. But if you don’t accept the most dire predictions, the left calls you a science denier.

          It is like say my blue subaru outback is a tardis. If you doubt me, i will call you a denier because it is clearly blue.

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    • Greenwald retweeted it:

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      • Greenwald is (in my opinion) making the point that for the MAGA types it’s about class. They are looking at events and making decisions and forming opinions based on class. They are choosing “enemies” based on class. The Democrats and the left are looking at EVERYTHING through the prism of race and/or gender-identity. They see their enemies as bigots and racists and basically untouchables/deplorables, while the right tend to see their enemies as members of an oppressive ruling class. And I think there are far more people on the right aware of this dichotomy of views than on the left.

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    • I think the most important points are that

      (a) the trust in the security state / military is badly damaged.
      (b) the press has gone from being biased to being fundamentally untrustworthy.
      (c) the government is going to use 1/6 as an excuse to cement its one-party rule.
      (d) the deep state has veto power over elections

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      • (b) the press has gone from being biased to being fundamentally untrustworthy.

        I don’t think “untrustworthy” covers it. The press has largely become a form of ad-hoc propaganda–if not for the Democrats or the progressives who have insinuated themselves into the organizations to propagandize their own particular brand of crazy, then to advertisers (especially Big Pharma) but also special interest groups. Their recent propagandizing for the surveillance state suggests they are incapable of performing even the basic functions they once did, of acting as a kind of “watch dog” against some forms of government overreach or actual encroaching facism.

        They’ve never been all that great at getting the facts straight, but yes, they are definitely worse about that now. They used to at least make attempts at confirming facts and checking stories. But most of that died, pre-Trump, with the 24 hour news cycle and web-based news.

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    • McWing:

      This is a very long thread and I think there’s some naïveté in it but I think it captures the zeitgeist of a lot of Trump voters.

      Outstanding thread. This captures my thoughts exactly:

      Many of them don’t know for certain whether ballots were faked in November 2020, but they know for absolute certain that the press, the FBI, etc would lie to them if there was. They have every reason to believe that, and it’s probably true.

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    • Tucker Carlson read the entire thread on his show.

      https://sashastone.substack.com/p/how-one-introvert-blew-the-lid-off

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  2. Follow up:

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    • Interesting. And he’s not wrong. Again, I accept how are system works generally and so accept the outcome of the 2020 vote. That being said, there seems to be lots of coincidental weirdness about the outcome and a lot of “nothing to see here/most secure election ever” bullshit from the MSM and the DHS–bizarrely–that I am willing to suspect, and do, that the levels of fraud in this election were unusually high.

      And that that’s not a bad thing, and will get a number of states passing election laws that clean it up and 2024 will at least give the appearance of being far more legitimate.

      Interesting stuff. Not sure if it indicates massive fraud on the part of Dominion–while not impossible, I would call this unlikely–but the desire to control the narrative and start hiding everything is, as always, intriguing.

      As I’ve said: hardening these kinds of systems is difficult, and I’ve seen how the government buys things. Still haven’t seen any evidence of an external hardening audit of the Dominion voting machines so it’s entirely possible that they were susceptible to fraud–especially by authorized users. Lots of systems essentially have no security to prevent intentional misuse and are designed on the assumption that users will not be trying to intentionally misuse the machine. So fraud at the local level could be any level from “you have to be pretty smart” to “any idiot can do it”.

      Which is not to say Biden didn’t win legitimately or the election should be overturned. The electoral vote was certified–he’s done. Still, I would feel better about it all if there wasn’t so much “most secure election ever” smoke being blown up our asses while people saying “wait, what the hell is this”? Is just dismissed. “Oh, they always send home poll watchers and pull huge boxed of ballots out from under the table, that’s just how it works” is also not super-satisfying.

      Which again: not about re-litigating a previous election, but crossing-the-fingers that things are fixed by the time the next one rolls around.

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  3. A team from Tampa has beaten the Montreal Canadiens for the Stanley Cup.

    Really.

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    • The corporate class–and particularly the global megacorporate class–has basically ruined the Republicans as any kind of serious opposition party. They are essentially lobbyists for the corporate class, not representatives of their constituents. And if they aren’t at the beginning DC is full of people to make them exactly that.

      Let the Democrats have the corporate lucre. I’ve long said that after general awareness is raised and the basic functions of running a campaign are paid for, most of the money spent in campaigns is wasted. They can run much leaner organizations and still win elections–sometimes in landslides in more local levels–by running on the issues important to their constituents.

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  4. Andrew Sullivan adopts the “successor ideology” critique.

    https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/what-happened-to-you-e5f

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    • He quotes himself quoting Obama from his book on Obama, as part of noting how much things have changed in the past 5-6 years:

      To which Obama said he replied: “No, no, no, no, no. That was not a great celebration of African-American history. That was a celebration of American history.”

      Can you imagine any avatar of the left saying that now?

      Also, I find this chart interesting:

      Not sure what to make of it but it comports with my experience.

      And because of that–and my objection to such illiberalism, and perhaps my general awareness of it–I would expect Michigoose or lmsinca would find me (as sometimes they have, when visiting us in a particular conservative mood) awful hard-right extremists. But I’m about as liberal and open to liberal ideas of governance as I’ve ever been (if I recall, Scott once suggested I was pretty much a liberal–which I expect I pretty much sounded like, in the context of our discussions).

      Because I embrace the liberalism and even progressivism of a JFK or Martin Luther King–if not LBJ’s great society.

      I also embrace expansive government programs and spending–admittedly with caveats of piloting and auditing that have never been very popular with the left, or folks in government generally.

      But I’m 100% down with Teddy Roosevelt. My 3rd favorite president I think, after Reagan and Jefferson. Tied with Lincoln. Maybe 4th, Washington really should be in there. And TR was a progressive of his time–just a much better one than Woodrow Wilson.

      And my feeling isn’t I haven’t changed that much. If anything I’m less conservative now than a decade or two ago–but the window has moved so much (and the focus has changed so much) that most of what I say here puts me firmly in the “extreme right”. Which is fascinating and mysterious to me.

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      • “But I’m 100% down with Teddy Roosevelt.”

        TR is now viewed as a white nationalist. They are tearing down the statues of him.

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      • KW:

        if I recall, Scott once suggested I was pretty much a liberal

        I don’t remember that, but if I did, I was wrong.

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        • If we get back into my discussions of my theoretical endorsement of big government you might.

          Also I would totally consider voting for Tulsi Gabbard.

          But like the argument for socialism, I do believe a well run big government could be a huge net positive and that some micromanaging regulations can also potentially be a net positive … in practice, though, governments tend to make the worst decisions in those sorts of things so … as a practical matter I will always fall on the right.

          Though I don’t see big government as inherently the problem and would be fine with a government that as large and spendy as is sustainable. But the government being made up of career politicians and academic experts with zero experience in 90% of the aspects of daily existence they attempt to govern is an insurmountable problem.

          The vast majority of the federal government is run by a new elite aristocracy far too distant from the consequences of their policies. Given a choice between that and a much smaller and weaker federal government-I’ll take that.

          If Jefferson’s vision of a government by gentlemen farmers where being a civil servant was treated like jury duty
          I’d be much more positive about big government.

          I also think a budget over $x should make leadership positions in federal bureaucracies elected offices. But that’s another conversation.

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    • jnc:

      Andrew Sullivan adopts the “successor ideology” critique.

      Yeah, but as an Obama sycophant he is still remarkably blind to Obama’s role in it.

      We are going through the greatest radicalization of the elites since the 1960s. This isn’t coming from the ground up. It’s being imposed ruthlessly from above, marshaled with a fusillade of constant MSM propaganda, and its victims are often the poor and the black and the brown.

      Yeah, dude…and you’ve been endorsing and voting for these radicalised elites for 15 fucking years. And even now you are still singing the praises of the most powerful one of them.

      [Kendi] is as dumb as Obama is smart; as crude as Obama is nuanced; as authoritarian as Obama is liberal.

      Sully needs to watch the movie The Sting. The best con around is one in which the victim has no idea he’s been conned. It is amazing to me that someone can properly diagnose what is happening and yet still be so utterly blind.

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      • Obama is far better than Kendi, and perhaps that’s Sully’s measuring stick. Irrespective of they fundamentally agree, Obama at least had some sense of what was appealing and palatable to the general population and what was not. We have a newer crop of intellectuals and elites (and older ones “enlightened” by social media) who are given such cover by the media and so insulated they have no idea that there are ideas and positions are unpopular, and that Biden win in the strength of being not-Trump, not on his potential as a conduit for the most progressive politics imaginable.

        Given all the grief Trump got (deservedly) for the chaos of his Whitehouse, I am impressed with the Whitehouse’s present power not to leak anything. Probably a testament as to how
        The bureaucratic state (and the pool from which functionaries are drawn) has been entirely co-opted by the left.

        … but anyway, I get it. Fanboys don’t want to see the flaws in their heroes. And Obama was much better at packaging his progressivism that the CRT folks.

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      • A nice response to Sullivan:

        And she has a Substack too.

        https://sashastone.substack.com/

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        • I don’t like the “Trump alone” thing. He’s been fighting that fight but I don’t think investing every hope for battling the new illiberalism should be invest solely in Trump—who remains not the best avatar.

          Ideally the cause would be taken up by others, and is to some degree.

          I think the TDS is a waste of time and energy in the battle against illiberalism and viewing Trump as a kind of proto-dictator on the “right”—as Sully seems to—is not particularly accurate or helpful. But Trump’s popularity represents a whole lot of people. Certainly there are other folks than Trump to promote classical liberalism. Desantis seems pretty solid.

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        • Trump absolutely owns the brand of “fighting back” against all of it.

          Yes, others are pushing back, but he was first and the clearest and the one that couldn’t be intimidated (Usually. I think he did back down over pardoning Assange,)

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        • He did back down on that and I think Afghanistan until the very end and also the Syria attacks.

          But I think he had a touch of the same problem I’m assuming good faith and patriotism from a military industrial establishment that has neither.

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  5. “Political And Media Class Solemnly Commemorates Six Months Of Overwrought Whining About January 6

    Michael Tracey

    This week, the political and media class emotionally marked the six-month anniversary of what they call the January 6 “insurrection.” The commemorations were reminiscent of an elementary school kid who insists on celebrating their “half birthday” — a juvenile self-indulgence, but understandable for a child. Less so for adults who are supposed to be governing the country.

    Members of Congress gathered for gauzy network TV interviews to gush about the meaningful and tight-knit “support groups” they have formed. They’re proudly donating articles of clothing worn on that day to the Smithsonian, so future generations can bear witness to the experience of wearing a suit while a Congressional workday was temporarily interrupted.”

    https://mtracey.substack.com/p/political-and-media-class-solemnly

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  6. Good read:

    “‘Fear on top of fear’: Why anti-gun Americans joined the wave of new gun owners

    Pandemic, police violence, calls to ‘defund the police’ fuel surge of first-time buyers

    By Marc Fisher, Miranda Green, Kelly Glass and Andrea Eger
    July 10, 2021

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/anti-gun-gun-owners/

    Like

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