Morning Report: Loan Depot lists

Vital Statistics:

 

  Last Change
S&P futures 3901 -10.3
Oil (WTI) 58.24 -0.04
10 year government bond yield   1.18%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.85%

Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.

 

Loan Depot is now public, trading under the ticker LDI. They will announce fourth quarter earnings next week. The past year has been a bonanza for mortgage IPOs.

 

Democrats are still working on a stimulus bill. They plan on inserting a $15 minimum wage increase which guarantees there will be almost no Republican support. They will push it through the Senate via reconciliation which sidesteps the filibuster. Note that the CBO says the 2021 deficit will hit $2.3 trillion, before the new $1.9 trillion stimulus is taken into account.

 

The housing market’s strength has broadened, according to homebuilder Taylor Morrison. “It’s a phenomenal dynamic we’re seeing out in the marketplace,” Palmer said in an interview on “Closing Bell,” one day after the nation’s fifth largest homebuilder reported fourth-quarter revenue of $1.6 billion, up 6% year over year. Net sales orders were up 46% compared with the same period a year earlier. We’re seeing strength across pretty much all geographies as well as all consumer groups. That’s a shift from a few months ago,” said Palmer, who has led Scottsdale, Arizona-based Taylor Morrison since 2007.

 

Note that lumber prices are up 113% YOY.

 

Zillow said that average days on market in December was 17 days, which was 25 days faster than December of 2019. “Homes are flying off the shelves. It’s a really high velocity market and that’s what has resulted in the highest home volume sales we’ve seen in 15 years” said Zillow CEO Rich Barton.

 

While the official unemployment rate is 6.3%, it is really closer to 10%. The reason is the way the US calculates unemployment. The labor force participation rate has collapsed (the decline is the largest since 1948). Actual employment in January was 10 million fewer than it was in February of 2020.

 

 

45 Responses

  1. “The only thing holding him back from national office is that he didn’t kill enough old people.“
    –Mr. Troll McWingnut, on Gavin Newsome

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  2. Taibbi’s latest:

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-bombhole-era-0cb

    Good observation:

    “Moreover, if after publication another shoe dropped in the form of mitigating information, audiences were disinterested, even angry. Those updates were betrayals of the entertainment contract, like continuity errors.”

    betrayals of the entertainment contract – perfect.

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  3. Because of course 17 year old high school students should be correcting adults:

    “I’m very used to people — my grandparents or people’s parents — saying things they don’t mean that are insensitive,” another student, who was then 17 and is now attending an Ivy League college, told me. “You correct them, you tell them, ‘You’re not supposed to talk like that,’ and usually people are pretty apologetic and responsive to being corrected. And he was not.”

    Yes, the Cultural Revolution is the best analogy.

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    • It’s a mess. This whole “I get to correct you and you are forbidden from correcting me” paradigm, instead of, you know, having an actual dialog.

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    • jnc:

      Yes, the Cultural Revolution is the best analogy.

      I agree. And that is precisely why, as I said the other day, I think the left is so dangerous, and certainly more dangerous than Trump ever was.

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      • I had hoped that since they were so anti-Biden in the primary that his nomination would have marginalized them. But I may well have been wrong.

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  4. Interesting bit of ATiM trivia:

    When McWing linked to that crazed article by the woman fretting over what to do about her “Trumpite” neighbor who took it upon himself to kindly plow snow out of her driveway, I thought there was something familiar about the author’s name, Virginia Heffernan, but I couldn’t quite place it. Turns out this was not her first appearance at ATiM.

    Back in 2016 she penned a remarkable homage to Hillary Clinton in the wake of Clinton’s defeat in the 2016 election, an article that was so over-the-top that Mich thought it must be a parody when I quoted from it.

    I look forward to whatever embarrassing things Heffernan has in store for us in 2024.

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  5. Great…United Health Care, the nation’s largest insurer, wants to use race as a matching factor between doctors and patients. Because, it seems, a Dr’s knowledge base is apparently a function of his/her race/ethnicity. Seriously, that is what they say.

    https://thefederalist.com/2021/02/15/nations-largest-health-insurer-wants-to-match-doctors-with-patients-based-on-race/

    I wonder what President Biden thinks about this?

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    • I expect he’s all for it. The whole rationale for the new American-apartheid is that you are primarily defined by your race–which is apparently no longer a social construct, but a fundamental law of physics all of a sudden–and a white doctor is incapable of treating a black patient, a white person is incapable of parenting minority children, and soon enough I’m expecting that white people should not be allowed to colonize minorities by getting into relationships with them or marrying them. Certainly, white people shouldn’t be allowed to teach minorities or mentor them, or speak to them, really, unless it’s to ask for forgiveness.

      That doesn’t work in reverse, obviously, because of white privilege or something.

      Like so many negative human attributes, racism is an instinctual and hardwired phenomenon. Culture and education and training is required to discipline the darker aspects of human nature. When you don’t do that–and at no point in the culture or education to any minorities learn that racism is bad when they do it–you’re going to end up with a whole lot of racists and bigots.

      And we’ve basically established that only one specific kind of bigotry is bad, and that only one kind of racism or racial supremacy is bad (and it is, but so are all of them) so it’s okay when they do it.

      And what do humans do when the power-structure allows them to be virulent racists? They do virulent racism. Long term, results will be similarly bad.

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    • “culturally competent care” is the industry jargon for that.
      I’ve got mixed views. If people aren’t going to see a doctor unless there’s a comfort level, sure, that makes sense.

      and there’s loads of data about how race factors into decision making.
      kind of, anyway. amputations for diabetics come to mind. blacks are much more likely to have a leg amputated. but what’s causing that decision? much more complicated.

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      • nova:

        If people aren’t going to see a doctor unless there’s a comfort level, sure, that makes sense.

        I suppose, then, that they should just ask patients the question straight up…”Do you prefer to see a Doctor of a particular race?” But if this is the path we are going to go down, we should make sure our eyes are wide open about just what is going on. And I wonder how this might go over in other contexts…”Thanks, ma’am, but I am more comfortable having a man work on my car.”

        blacks are much more likely to have a leg amputated. but what’s causing that decision? much more complicated.

        That is interesting, but what is causing it is the key piece of information, isn’t it? I would have a few other questions:

        Is the likelihood of having a leg amputated correlated to income level?

        Are black doctors less/more likely than white doctors to recommend amputation?

        What is the correlation between the race of the doctor and the race of the patient with regard to amputations? Same race, fewer amputations?

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      • Some of that is government care versus private health care in the form of commercial health insurance. For example, for years the VA and Medicaid solution for diabetic foot ulcers was amputation. With private health insurance they would prescribe a topical drug like Bactroban.

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      • Thanks NoVA.

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    • I wonder when the government is going to mandate that all OB-GYNs perform prostate cancer screenings free of charge…

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  6. Once the impeachment managers were done trumpeting it as fact, the NYT quietly retracted its reporting that a Capitol police officer was killed by Trump supporters.

    Also worth noting, the original sourcing has been changed from “law enforcement officials” to “officials close to the Capitol Police”.

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    • At some point you’d think people would understand the modern news pipeline is:

      A. Claim is Made By Someone (who knows who?) ->

      B. News Organ Does No Confirmation or Investigation, Repeats as Known Truth ->

      C. Report is Challenged for Lack of Evidence or Contradictory Evidence ->

      D. Challenge is Resisted/Ignored or “Fact-Checked” as False ->

      E. Some Outside Force, Legal Challenge, or Threatened Lawsuit is Received ->

      F. Original Bullshit Story Quietly Retracted Just Enough To Make Potential Lawsuit Go Away

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      • G. Original source who lied to news organ is used repeatedly for future stories, rather than blacklisted, because they “report” the right narrative. The fact the original information given was false changes nothing for future stories.

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    • Taibbi’s term for this is “bombholing”. Memory holing the previous headlines with a new bombshell.

      “As George Orwell understood when he created the “memory hole” concept in 1984, an institution that can obliterate memory can control history. In the Trump era, news audiences volunteered to stop the disobedient act of remembering.

      They brought a pure, virginal belief to watching news, and agreed to unquestioningly accept any new versions of the past put forward. This was Hate Inc. brought to its logical conclusion. Fox and MSNBC already knew how to monetize anger by setting audiences against one another. The innovation of the Trump era was companies learned they could operate on a sort of editorial margin, borrowing credibility for unproven stories from audiences themselves, who gave permission to play loose with facts by gobbling up anonymously-sourced exposes that tickled their outrage centers.

      Mistakes became irrelevant. In a way, they were no longer understood as mistakes.”

      https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-bombhole-era-0cb

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  7. Worth reading:

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  8. I can’t wait to be disconnected from this place…………sending Scott the info soon to transfer the domain name.

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    • Nice to see you though! Hope all is well.

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    • My goodness! I thought you’d rejoice with a Biden win and would feel that the Sword of Damocles would be removed.

      Take care and we miss you!

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      • McWing, I voted for Biden out of necessity, not out of enthusiasm……….none of you really know me at all and honestly I think a couple of you here don’t just hate liberals but you might actually hate women! I’ve been a bit shocked lately to be honest! Anywhoo, once I turn it over to Scott………I’ll be done!

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        • I certainly do not hold women in general in high esteem and have never tried to hide it.

          In fairness I don’t hold men in high esteem either but they are at least usually predictable.

          But, OMB is gone, I thought you’d be,’if not happier, at least relieved. go figure.

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        • If I were a doctor making less than $100k per year I’d be unhappy too.

          https://mobile.twitter.com/OrwellNGoode/status/1361028179520061440

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        • Actually I don’t hate any group. I don’t like identity politics and don’t subscribe to it. People are people. Group identity is a social construct. And not a healthy one in the modern world, IMO.

          I don’t believe in the perfectibility of humanity and don’t subscribe to traditionally progressive notions of human perfectibility and am more concerned with the potential destruction of human arrogance in the pursuit of grand encompassing projects …

          I like individual freedoms and individual autonomy. I like free speech. As I have noted before—if engaged in actual conversation—I’m fairly liberal. I support a much more progressive tax structure. I’m pro-choice. I think unions are a good idea, but dislike corruption in union leadership. I would like to see more trust-busting and I’m actually coming around to the view that wealth inequality is a problem.

          I also voted for Sarah Palin for president. I love women! 😉

          I would have voted for Tulsi Gabbard had she been running. Alas, she didn’t make it to the finale. Ah well!

          Still, always happy when you stop by and sorry you think we’re awful! I try not to be but … ah well! I am prone to the failings of all humans.

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        • lms:

          I’ve been a bit shocked lately to be honest!

          Just so I have some sense of your metric, what in particular did you find shocking?

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  9. Scott, every time I try to email you I get an error message but I did respond to your last email regarding transferring the domain name so hopefully you’ll see it. I’m anxious to put this place behind me.

    Like

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