Morning Report: NYC revenues fall $1.2 billion

Posted on December 18, 2020 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

 

  Last Change
S&P futures 3718 5.3
Oil (WTI) 48.77 0.34
10 year government bond yield   0.93%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.78%

Stocks are flattish as investors hope for some sort of stimulus package. Bonds and MBS are down.

 

Congress is working on stimulus bill and also a stopgap measure to keep the government funded. There is a tiny possibility that funding could run out over the weekend, but nothing prolonged is envisioned.

 

Despite the increase in the 10 year bond yield, mortgage rates are at record lows. “Mortgage rate dynamics over the past several months have been less dependent on economic data and more on policy-related matters — both fiscal and monetary — as well as epidemiological developments,” said Matthew Speakman, a Zillow economist. “A new spending package may place some upward pressure on mortgage rates, particularly if the package contains more than has been reportedly debated. Investors have expected the spending package for a while now, meaning it’s likely that most of their reaction has already been priced in. Overall, mortgage rates remain very low and are unlikely to shift unless a blockbuster spending package is passed before the end of the year.”

 

Falling real estate prices have dented NYC revenues by 1.2 billion. Sales of commercial and resi properties have fallen 49% compared to last year. This has translated into a 42% decrease in tax revenue for the City. The next shoe to drop should be office vacancies as big financial firms like JP Morgan and Goldman have talked about moving more jobs out of the City. Manhattan apartment prices are at 10 year lows, apparently. I have to imaging the apartments in more marginal areas of Brooklyn and Queens are getting absolutely hammered.

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |

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45 Responses

  1. markinaustin, on December 18, 2020 at 9:23 am said:

    I understand that process as you describe it in NYC. Meanwhile, Austin property tax revenue is up.

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  2. Kevin S. Willis, on December 18, 2020 at 1:03 pm said:

    Article on all the great new taxes that will fix NYCs problems:

    https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2020/12/15/5-ways-taxes-could-go-up-in-new-york-

    They don’t seem to be figuring in the economic incentives they are providing to these people to just leave. Start taxing second homes, I expect people would stop parking money in second homes, further lowering the amount of revenue from home purchases.

    Texas has oil, New York has Wall Street, and you tax what you have. Taxes on stock transfers, as envisioned by supporters in the Legislature, would result in $13 billion that could be used for infrastructure. Another tax on stock buybacks would result in $3.2 billion in taxes on companies that repurchase their shares.

    And how does that work? Stock transfers for local corporations or are they literally planning on taxing all stock transfers and buybacks? How would that work?

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  3. jnc4p, on December 18, 2020 at 2:25 pm said:

    Worth noting:

    “The Establishment Strikes Back

    Henry Cuellar and centrist Democrats mutiny against progressives in a key committee fight.

    by Alexander Sammon
    December 18, 2020”

    https://prospect.org/politics/establishment-strikes-back-aoc-versus-centrist-democrats/

    “McConnell getting much of what he wants in emerging relief deal
    By Alexander Bolton and Scott Wong
    12/17/20 06:00 AM EST ”

    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/530594-mcconnell-getting-much-of-what-he-wants-in-emerging-relief-deal

    I’d be interested in NoVA’s take.

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  4. jnc4p, on December 19, 2020 at 9:55 am said:

    Mandalorian season finale exceeded expectations.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  6. markinaustin, on December 19, 2020 at 10:59 am said:

    SpaceX launch SKIP TO 5 MIN MARK – Avoid long music intro without video.

    https://www.spacex.com/launches/

    Shows current launch – from this morning.

    I never get tired of this stuff and hope at least one of you will enjoy it.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  7. jnc4p, on December 19, 2020 at 12:40 pm said:

    FYI Mark

    “Russian Hackers Have Been Inside Austin City Network for Months

    Russia appears to have used Austin’s network as infrastructure to stage additional cyberattacks.

    Mara Hvistendahl, Micah Lee, Jordan Smith”

    Russian Hackers Have Been Inside Austin City Network for Months

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    • markinaustin, on December 19, 2020 at 4:28 pm said:

      Thanks for this, even though it is bad news. Maybe they have hacked my City electric utility bills and I should protest.

      I don’t get Business Insider. So I could not open this.

      https://www.businessinsider.com/jared-kushner-trump-campaign-shell-company-family-ammc-lara-2020-12?r=rr

      It has been quoted or referenced by others but I wanted to read the original story. So if you have it, I would like to hear what it actually reports.

      Kev, I think you had a workaround for blocked sites but I have lost track of it.

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      • Kevin S. Willis, on December 20, 2020 at 9:44 am said:

        Doesn’t work for everything but seemed to work for this:

        https://outline.com/RKWASr

        Outline.com

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        • Let the mutherfuker burn!, on December 20, 2020 at 11:55 am said:

          I sincerely love this and encourage for all of these progressive schools.

          If I’m a progressive parent, what’s not to like?

          Like

        • Kevin S. Willis, on December 21, 2020 at 10:29 am said:

          Yeah, 50% of donations going to public schools? That seems highly unlikely. Courses on black liberation and only teaching diversity narratives sounds perfectly acceptable . . . but letting go of 50% of donations in a time when I’m going to just assume donations would be dropping, with COVID and lockdown? Only is Soros steps in or something.

          Fortunately I work for a largely not-insane if not terribly competent school district. By the time this stuff filters down here, I’m either going to be retired or dead.

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        • markinaustin, on December 20, 2020 at 3:28 pm said:

          Thanx

          Like

    • lmsinca, on December 19, 2020 at 6:55 pm said:

      Is it definitely Russia? Trump seems to think it might be China………

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      • Kevin S. Willis, on December 20, 2020 at 9:48 am said:

        Yes. My theory is Russian organized crime with the blessing of or support of at least elements of the Russian government. Doesn’t mean China isn’t involved but if they are they are contracting with Russia. Or working them—the primary motive being financial, IMO. A lot of these attacks at least involve Ransomware but that isn’t discussed (because bad PR). But it is possible even after getting Ransomware taken care there’s still spyware on the networks—again, as another vector for extorting cash.

        If this were strictly military we still wouldn’t know about it, IMO.

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      • jnc4p, on December 20, 2020 at 1:51 pm said:

        That’s what all the people leaking info anonymously to the press say, but no actual evidence has been presented publicly.

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  8. lmsinca, on December 19, 2020 at 7:02 pm said:

    This was interesting I thought and for some reason I can’t help but be grateful that we no longer have a rental and have a house to live in that’s paid off!

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-bargain-with-the-devilbill-comes-due-for-overextended-airbnb-hosts-11588083336?st=603wddrbab5cq2i&mod=ffgua

    Things in CA are very dicey right now regarding the virus. All of So Cal has zero ICU capacity…..we can add the beds but we can’t staff them. Looks like my hip replacement may have failed and I probably need a revision surgery (if I agree to it) but I’ll wait until I get the vaccine at this point. Riverside county, where I live, is in the middle of the other 4 counties that are in dire straits. We know more and more people who either have Covid or had Covid and one of my best friends here was rushed to the hospital this morning. We watched our neighbor be taken by ambulance a few weeks ago……….he’s only 50 and in good health. Luckily he survived and is recovering along with his wife.

    Hope you all enjoy a nice Christmas/Hanukkah holiday!

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  11. jnc4p, on December 20, 2020 at 5:32 pm said:

    I’m sure using vaccine distribution as a way to “level the playing field” will end well.

    “Harald Schmidt, an expert in ethics and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania, said that it is reasonable to put essential workers ahead of older adults, given their risks, and that they are disproportionately minorities. “Older populations are whiter, ” Dr. Schmidt said. “Society is structured in a way that enables them to live longer. Instead of giving additional health benefits to those who already had more of them, we can start to level the playing field a bit.””

    See also:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/12/16/942452184/california-may-consider-historical-injustice-when-allocating-coronavirus-vaccine

    I can’t think of a better argument for why government shouldn’t be involved in this than the ones being made above under the guise of “equity”.

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    • Let the mutherfuker burn!, on December 20, 2020 at 6:09 pm said:

      It’s what the people want because it’s a reflection of the voters. We’re going to be getting it good and hard.

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        • Kevin S. Willis, on December 21, 2020 at 10:25 am said:

          I assume when you say “weird”, you meant that the Daily Beast was actually calling her out for it. Probably because they consider her a Trumpista more than the vaguely left-leaning apolitical globalist she much more likely is.

          I did find an example of the Beast calling out Gavin Newsome, once, in an opinion piece, but can’t find any other examples of prominent lefties flouting their own COVID orders and I know there have been dozens. But I might not be searching right.

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        • ScottC, on December 21, 2020 at 11:44 am said:

          KW:

          I assume when you say “weird”, you meant that the Daily Beast was actually calling her out for it.

          I took the “weird” to be a sarcastic comment on a health official doing precisely what she is telling everyone else not to do.

          Hypocrisy among the covid cognescenti? Weird!

          Like

        • Kevin S. Willis, on December 21, 2020 at 9:21 pm said:

          Me too. I was being sarcastic in return but my humor may have been too dry. 😉

          Like

        • ScottC, on December 22, 2020 at 12:04 am said:

          KW:

          Me too.

          Ah sorry. Went right over my head.

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      • ScottC, on December 21, 2020 at 12:31 am said:

        McWing:

        It’s what the people want because it’s a reflection of the voters.

        I don’t know if it is what they want, but if you vote for Democrats, it is what you deserve.

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        • Kevin S. Willis, on December 21, 2020 at 10:22 am said:

          It’s not what they want. They want the sales pitch, not the actual deliverables.

          We exist in a bubble in places like this–and in most places where political discussion is hot and heavy. Most voters are low information voters the same way most people who buy something don’t know what it’s made of or how it’s made or even if it’s effective or counterproductive. IMO.

          Folks in the Plum Line leftist bubble are, IMO, “wrong information” voters, which is very different. They are often very high information, just with the wrong information. I think center-right tends to be very high in “right information” and probably the center-left is much higher (though, like actual center, not the kind of “not actually a full blown Communist” that has come to characterize the “center” left.

          But I think high-information wrong and right information voters are a tiny minority compared to “low information” voters–who may have wrong information or right information, but it doesn’t really matter because it’s so incomplete. They buy based on a few talking points or just vague impressions “this guy doesn’t tweet stupid things, he must be good!”

          Ah, for the days when senators and congress people, irrespective of party, had to commit to doing things to help their actual constituents!

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        • Brent Nyitray, on December 21, 2020 at 10:43 am said:

          Folks in the Plum Line leftist bubble are, IMO, “wrong information” voters, which is very different. They are often very high information, just with the wrong information.

          “Well, the trouble with our liberal friends is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.”

          Like

    • Brent Nyitray, on December 20, 2020 at 6:16 pm said:

      If we ever see genocide again in our lifetimes, it will come from the left, and it will be under the guise of social justice and environmentalism.

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      • ScottC, on December 21, 2020 at 12:37 am said:

        Brent:

        If we ever see genocide again in our lifetimes, it will come from the left, and it will be under the guise of social justice and environmentalism.

        But Trump won’t be in office, and that is the important thing. Get your priorities straight!

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        • Kevin S. Willis, on December 21, 2020 at 10:15 am said:

          Genocides tend to be at least tangenetially related to some progressive project or other of the time. The Third Reich has been characterized as “right wing”–but was, in fact, a very progressive project, just from uber-nationalist progressives who were a huge bloc of the progressive movement in the early 20th century, though apparently entirely absent today. So the logic is that nationalism is and always was a strictly right-wing thing, because it pretty much is now. Leaving out the part where centralized government control, suppression of freedom of individual movement and self-management, and ethnocentric government was “progressive” then and is “progressive” now.

          While the right may be becomign more tribal in the modern era than it was for the past few decades, there’s no chance of any true right-wing tribal group of ever getting anything like the kind of power required to pull of a genocide. Maybe in some Islamic states, which will be characterized as “far right”, but even there it’s the left that excuses or downplays (or perhaps even looks at envy or emulation) at their tactics.

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        • Brent Nyitray, on December 21, 2020 at 10:41 am said:

          The Third Reich has been characterized as “right wing”–but was, in fact, a very progressive project

          The Third Reich was very Wilsonian.

          Like

    • Kevin S. Willis, on December 21, 2020 at 7:59 am said:

      Good luck. A: I’m fine with it, I’d be fine with never having the vaccine. The idea that the virus itself represents this overwhelming mortal threat is media-fueled hysteria. And tanstaafl.
      B: Most structural healthcare challenges in minority groups are about diet, exercise, and healthcare choices within the group. One of those choices might be to resist getting the vaccine. They may want to distribute by some racist, far-left progressive logic but the oppressed are likely not to cooperate with their vision.

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