Morning Report: Pending Home Sales soar

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 3347 23.6
Oil (WTI) 39.15 -1.19
10 year government bond yield   0.71%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.91%

Stocks are higher as we begin the fourth quarter of 2020. Bonds and MBS are down.

Initial Jobless claims remain elevated at 840,000. Smaller businesses like restaurants and retailers are struggling to remain open. Separately, 118,800 job cuts were announced in September. Aside from the airlines, the other notable one was Disney.

Personal incomes fell 2.7% in August, which was a touch below expectations. Personal spending rose 1%. Inflation remains below the Fed’s target of 2%, which means rates are going nowhere.

Pending Home Sales rose 8.8% in August, and the index hit a record. “Tremendously low mortgage rates – below 3% – have again helped pending home sales climb in August,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “Additionally, the Fed intends to hold short-term fed funds rates near 0% for the foreseeable future, which should in the absence of inflationary pressure keep mortgage rates low, and that will undoubtedly aid homebuyers continuing to enter the marketplace. While I did very much expect the housing sector to be stable during the pandemic-induced economic shutdowns, I am pleasantly surprised to see the industry bounce back so strongly and so quickly.” Take a look at the chart below, the rebound in sales has been nothing short of remarkable.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is pending-home-sales.jpg

13 Responses

  1. Another one from The New Yorker.

    Some of the Trump Apologists in my real life are beginning to listen and pay attention to who and what Trump really is. Finally! Most of them won’t vote for him. I live in a very conservative community of So Cal and have many friends here, we’ve been here for 41 years, so a lot of our friends are Republicans with Trump flags in their front yards. Some of those flags are disappearing and the neighborhood group I belong to is becoming alarmingly contentious rather than a one sided conversation I prefer not to be a part of. It looks like people are waking up to the danger that is Trump.

    It may be tempting to dismiss all this as Trumpian bluster. But take a look at the video posted by the Trump campaign on Facebook a week and a half ago. Speaking close to the camera, Donald Trump, Jr., a combative gun enthusiast who serves as an unofficial liaison to the alt-right, declares, “The radical left are laying the groundwork to steal this election from my father. . . . They are planting stories that President Trump will have a landslide lead on Election Night but will lose when they finish counting the mail-in ballots. Their plan is to add millions of fraudulent ballots that can cancel your vote and overturn the election. We cannot let that happen. We need every able-bodied man, woman to join Army for Trump’s Election-Security Operation. . . . President Trump is going to win. Don’t let them steal it.”

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-first-presidential-debate-was-an-alarm-call-for-american-democracy?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=tny&utm_mailing=TNY_Cassidy_09302020&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&bxid=5e625c4ecff06b3f6a385c07&user_id=60228433&hasha=a3fcbe9bf7fd03bfbef30ff4dbbfc853&hashb=0acfcedb23b26b12fc23697522a0d40b89366e79&hashc=42cbb700b4c94c455e205b1100f6742a77c925fa520302799fc071e73580eaa5&esrc=Cassidy_NL_page&utm_term=TNY_Cassidy

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    • My old guy view of neighborhood sign wars is that they were always fun and never actually caused any problems. Let you know when to not talk politics with a neighbor and it worked. The thing that I never liked was flags with names on them. I only liked the American flag, the Tx flag, and the UT banner. I could tolerate Aggie banners and HS banners, of course. But flags with names on them? I don’t like that.

      Probably just me.

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    • They are planting stories that President Trump will have a landslide lead on Election Night but will lose when they finish counting the mail-in ballots.

      This is largely true (I’m not sure if “planting” is the correct word: these stories are being written and distributed, in order to make sure that if there is a positive Trump result on election night, any victory claimed by Trump would be invalid, though if attitudes are shifting this should ultimately be unnecessary.

      As regards to what their plans are . . . little bit of mind reading there. Assumption of omniscience that is hard to justify. We shall see! I’ve really got no idea who is ultimately going to win this election. I expect it will at least be close–but maybe that even won’t be the case, and it will be a landslide one way or another. Though I doubt it.

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    • I have no doubt there will be a ton of fraudulent Biden votes, but they will be limited to states he is already going to win big time. NY and CA will probably have 110% of the voting population submitting ballots

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    • A friend of my mine from high school posted on Facebook that both of the yard signs on his lawn were taken.

      There was a Trump sign and Biden sign (he and his wife have differing political views) and both were taken.

      Like

  2. Interesting video with a counter-narrative to Tuesday’s debate. The participants are JD Baris, a private pollster and Robert Barnes, a lawyer and political gambler who’s made a lot of money betting on politics.

    Like

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