Morning Report: Originations hit a record in the second quarter

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 3367 30.6
Oil (WTI) 37.50 0.77
10 year government bond yield   0.68%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.93%

Stocks are rebounding today after a tech sell-off. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Mortgage applications increased 3% last week as purchases and refis rose by the same amount. Purchase applications were up 40% year-over-year, however there was some noise due to the Labor Day holiday last year.

Black Knight Financial reported that $1.1 trillion worth of mortgages were originated in the second quarter

“Despite the nation being under pandemic-related lockdowns for much of the quarter, a record-breaking surge in mortgage originations occurred in Q2 2020, driven by the record-low interest rate environment,” said Graboske. “Nearly $1.1 trillion in first lien mortgages were originated in Q2 2020, which is the largest quarterly origination volume we’ve seen since first reporting on the metric in January 2000. Refinance lending grew more than 60% from the previous quarter and more than 200% from the same time last year, accounting for nearly 70% of all Q2 originations by dollar value. At the same time, purchase lending declined 8% year-over-year as the traditional spring homebuying season was impacted by COVID-19-related restrictions. However, mortgage loan rate lock data – a leading indicator of lending activity – suggests that the homebuying season was simply pushed forward into the third quarter.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is origination-activity.jpg

More than half of Redfin offers faced bidding wars in August, according to the company. Competition was most pronounced in San Diego and San Francisco, as well as Phoenix, Austin and Salt Lake City.

“The market is on fire. There just isn’t enough on the market to supply the huge demand for homes,” said San Diego Redfin agent Lisa Padilla. “A lot of military buyers are trying to take advantage of the low interest rates for VA loans. Anything on sale for less than $600,000 has multiple offers, and sometimes they’re getting more than 20 offers. Only condos are a little slow, as most buyers want a home with a yard.”

Forbearance numbers fell to 7.16% from 7.2% last week, which was the lowest level in nearly 5 months. 4.8% of Fan and Fred loans were in forbearance while FHA loans in forbearance rose slightly to 9.62%.

25 Responses

  1. Taibbi on the Atlantic story:

    And this is a perfect take on the pro-riot wing of the left:

    Like

  2. CNN, or Pravda?

    https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-biden-washington-redskins-logo-removed-hat

    Actually I see this as an indictment of the entire mainstream media, because the only reason CNN finds this acceptable is because it knows the rest of its leftist brethren in the media are just as corrupt, and won’t call CNN out for it.

    Like

    • There’s only one person who could pull off this kind of “Deep Fake” and we all know who it is.

      CNN has clearly been hacked by Putin.

      On a more serious note, if in the service of electing Biden they are willing to alter something this trivial, what else can we presume that they are willing to do?

      Like

      • jnc:

        On a more serious note, if in the service of electing Biden they are willing to alter something this trivial, what else can we presume that they are willing to do?

        Indeed.

        Like

        • I’m pretty sure they are willing to alter anything, because the major news organizations have been on a looooong slide from being news to being activist organizations (with certain funding interests, thus why you can never expect serious reporting on big pharma, for example).

          CNN, MSNBC, Fox News–all of them are not anything like I would consider news organizations, but rather activist infomercials that will “sell” coverage to certain corporate interests where they can convince themselves that doesn’t conflict with their activism. Also, I’m convinced all the major news organizations sell undisclosed native ads (where “news reports” focus overmuch on a single brand, business, or push a particular category that leads to purchases in that category (vaccines or meatless burgers or whatever).

          Treating them as objective purveyors of facts with some interesting and thoughtful opinion discussion is just . . . well, it’s not possible. The quality of opinion (whether you agree or not) is extraordinarily low, IMO. From The Five to Brian Stelter to Chris Cuomo–these tend to be advocates woefully under-informed on even their own positions without any philosophical underpinnings of their ideology, or people who might be well-informed but have no time or incentive to communicate that in any way to their audiences.

          Meh. All the major news organs are mostly worthless. Journalism Dies in Advocacy.

          Like

        • KW:

          Journalism Dies in Advocacy.

          Hah…I like that one.

          Like

    • Seriously, they couldn’t find another photo of Biden and son??

      Like

      • KW:

        Seriously, they couldn’t find another photo of Biden and son?

        I’m guessing that it never even occurred to them that this might be questionable activity. They’ve hardly been a paragon of journalistic standards even before this.

        Like

      • it’s all in how you define truth

        Like

    • CNN has been in the propaganda business for years now. I take it no more seriously than left wing Twitter

      Like

  3. Good write up on why Trump is likely to win the Carroll case.

    https://popehat.substack.com/p/trump-the-carroll-case-and-the-problem

    Like

    • Hey Mark, thanks for this article. Hopefully with flu season coming as well, if more people would adhere to mask wearing to protect others and themselves, we’ll make some headway stopping the spread of Covid and the flu. Then maybe you and I, and others our age, will be able to venture out a little. Wishful thinking?

      Also, I went ahead and paid for one more year here but after this I’ll transfer it off to someone else. It’s become too much of it’s own echo chamber for me to really enjoy it at all. After the election I’ll probably leave here for good but will switch the domain to someone else.

      One more note of interest to you maybe is that Walter’s defibrillator went off on Sunday. He was working in the yard about 7 am because it was going to be the hottest day of the decade or something, even though I begged him not to, and at about 7:25 his HR climbed up to 300 (V Tac) and then his heart stopped. The ICD restored normal rhythm and saved him. It’s called Sudden Death Syndrome. Brought him home from the hospital yesterday with 12 prescriptions, 4 of them new and he’s doing okay for now. Scary stuff though!

      Like

      • lms:

        Also, I went ahead and paid for one more year here but after this I’ll transfer it off to someone else.

        I’m am happy to take it on. Just let me know what to do. If you no longer have my email, let me know and I will give it to you.

        Like

        • Thanks Scott, I don’t have your email. It’s only about $15 a year but a bit complicated to switch ownership I found out when I took it over from Sue. I’ll contact them and figure out the process. Mark was going to do it but since he’s at least as old as I am (hi Mark ;-)) we might as well have someone a bit younger take it over.

          Like

        • You can use sccinuk@yahoo.co.uk

          Liked by 1 person

      • Yikes…that is scary indeed. Glad he is doing ok.

        Like

      • So glad Walt’s home! Prayers for him, you and your family. How scary!

        Like

      • Lulu, tell Walter not to work outside in the heat ever again. I never had a heat related incident until I was 73, but now I have been told I cannot work outside if the heat index [not just the temperature] is above 89F. Once you have had heat exhaustion it apparently goes downhill.
        Avoid Sudden Death Syndrome and live long and prosper. I am glad Water made it safely through and is at home with you again.

        Having decided that DJT remains the con artist I thought he was I have written him off. I see the 24/7 media keep him at the center of attention and that alone may let him squeak by. There is virtually no bad pub for a guy like him. He keeps throwing out his laser light and the kittens all jump.

        I understand your frustration with ATiM seeming like an echo chamber. I think it is less so than you do, but I get it. My oldest daughter, in Santa Fe, has pointed out to me the most ridiculous far left sites that draw many in that City. It pains her that so many people are closed to discussion and will resort to labeling and name calling if you do not share their preconception of HOW THE UNIVERSE SHOULD BE. That is never a problem here. I am not going to convince Kevin that he shouldn’t vote for DJT, but he and I agree about a lot of stuff and that difference will not keep us from sharing ideas. Same really goes for Scott and George, and Brent is a fountain of good solid info unfiltered through a partisan lens. I used to be Joe and NoVa so the fact that I am more inclined to see government as instrument that might do something good and efficient now than when I was 40 just moves my needle from cynical to skeptical. Which is where I think you are, as well.

        So stick around. If Trump wins. we can bitch about it together.

        Like

        • “I used to be Joe and NoVa so the fact that I am more inclined to see government as instrument that might do something good and efficient now than when I was 40 just moves my needle from cynical to skeptical.”

          For myself, voting for Obama was the last time I thought government could actually be made to work better.

          What I’ve concluded is that no one is interested in fixing what’s existing and broken because there’s no glamour and accolades in that. Instead it’s about adding on to it.

          This is always my test for an administration. If this can’t be fixed, why should government be trusted with anything else more complicated than mailing out checks to people?

          https://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/national/2014/03/22/sinkhole-of-bureaucracy/

          Like

        • Most political forums become echo chambers because one side “gives up” and then one side dominates. During the “settling”, you’ll see folks from both sides slide away (like QB) but eventually one side all but abandons the forum. This seems to be human nature. It’s the very rare Mark who sticks it out.

          The other thing is, while we do have disagreements, most of them are disagreements about things pretty much on the right side of the ledger, so again–that sounds more like and echo chamber to someone on the left than someone on the right.

          I’m actually more liberals than I sound here on a lot of things, but it doesn’t typically come up because either the topics aren’t du jour or there’s no one to interject them.

          And I liked Obama as a president. There are a couple of his executive orders than I liked (although, like most on the right, I’m not a big supporter of that much executive power, or the bureaucracy used to enforce it, but if you’re going to have it . . . .).

          I’m pro-choice, support gay marriage (or, I’m opposed to all marriage of any kind, depends on what day you ask me), support serious prison reform and the decriminalization of non-violent (especially drug use) offenses, support drug legalization, support a much more progressive tax structure, support ending our endless wars and much of the projection of our military power.

          Echo chambers are often the product of what a certain set of people find interesting to talk about.

          I’m not trying to convince anybody to vote for anybody. Someone on another forum I’m in was talking about how he wasn’t planning on voting but the way things were going he thought he might just have to go vote for DJT. I told him: “Follow your heart. Vote if you want to, don’t vote if you don’t want to, and vote for who you want to. One of the great things about this country is that that’s how that works.”

          And it doesn’t matter who I vote for for president–Tennessee goes to Trump, end of story. But my straight Republican ticket down-ticket vote (done while holding my nose, admittedly) might have some relevance. Although how different it is from my “vote against the incumbent” policy for down-ticket races, I don’t know.

          Anyhoo, lmsinca should at least pop in occasionally and introduce a topic or something. Or we can pick various center-left things were at least some of us align to talk about. Always an option, too!

          Like

      • I’m glad Walter is OK. That’s crazy but I agree with Mark about not working outside like that. If I understand the situation out there, even at 7:00 AM it’s still in the 90’s?

        “It’s become too much of it’s own echo chamber for me to really enjoy it at all.”

        Unfortunately, I think all political forums tend to go to this eventually. Sorry if I contributed to it here.

        Like

      • Sheesh. I’m 51 and I avoid working in the heat!

        They have people you can hire for yardwork now, but if that’s not an option . . . nice to have a clean lawn, but better to have your health!

        Glad he’s doing okay.

        Like

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