Morning Report: Big jump in housing starts

Posted on August 18, 2020 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3384 6.6
Oil (WTI) 42.24 0.52
10 year government bond yield 0.68%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 2.93%

 

Stocks are higher this morning on strong numbers out of WalMart and the Home Despot. Bonds and MBS are up small.

 

It looks like we are getting bipartisan push-back against the 50 basis point adverse market fee. Trump criticized the fee, and we have a chorus of Democrats opposed to it as well. It seems like no one is actually supporting this move. This is as just about every industry group lines up against it as well.

 

Housing starts increased to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 1.5 million in July, which is a 23% increase from a year ago. Building permits came in at 1.5 million as well, which is a 9% increase from last year. Certainly the COVID-related pause is over, and we are approaching the highs of earlier this year.

housing starts

 

Mortgage delinquencies increased to 8.2% in the second quarter, compared to 4.4% in the first quarter and 4.5% a year ago.

The COVID-19 pandemic’s effects on some homeowners’ ability to make their mortgage payments could not be more apparent,” said Marina Walsh, MBA Vice President of Industry Analysis. “The nearly 4 percentage point jump in the delinquency rate was the biggest quarterly rise in the history of MBA’s survey. The second quarter results also mark the highest overall delinquency rate in nine years, and a survey-high delinquency rate for FHA loans.

The conventional delinquency rate rose to 6.7% while the FHA delinquency rate rose to 15.7%, the highest rate since the survey began in the late 70s. DQs spiked in NY, NJ, FL, NV, and HI.

 

The number of loans in forbearance decreased to 7.2% last week, according to the MBA. Interesting data point on non-QM: big NQM investor MFA Financial said that roughly a third of its non-QM portfolio was in forbearance (though many were still paying). Ginnie remains a rough spot, with 9.5% in forbearance, and that doesn’t include the Ginnie loans which have been bought out of pools.

 

 

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |

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18 Responses

  1. markinaustin, on August 18, 2020 at 11:11 am said:

    I thought D Convention was more watchable scripted than live, and assume R Convention will be as well.

    This might be the end of party conventions as we knew them.

    Liked by 2 people

    Reply
  2. Let the mutherfuker burn!, on August 18, 2020 at 11:40 am said:

    will Bill Clinton brag about all the broads he’s banged over the years during his speech tonight?

    Like

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  3. jnc4p, on August 18, 2020 at 12:04 pm said:

    Matt Taibbi is hosting a drinking game for it on Twitter:

    Like

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  4. Kevin S. Willis, on August 18, 2020 at 1:01 pm said:

    Hadn’t paid much attention to the mailbox thing, because busy. But now I’ve looked at it, it all seems crazy. Seems like Trump is actually trying to reform the Post Office and make it fiscally whole (which involves reducing mailboxes and services, amongst other things), that that started pre-COVID, and that Democratic politicians are literally going to Twitter and saying Trump is having random mailboxes locked–in mid-August–to “steal the vote”, that mailboxes have been picked up not because something reasonable, like to reduce the routes (and thus time, money, and greenhouse gasses spent on collecting mail) but to STEAL THE ELECTION!!

    Nothing is as good as Jamie Lee Curtis taking a picture of a wrecker taking a busted mail truck away (probably for repair) and accusing Trump of stealing mail trucks.

    Which is just stupid and so ignorant of how things operate in the real world . . . but, eh, Hollywood, I guess.

    But this sounds like another area where perhaps a handful of real things that are really happening have been completely inverted and is now a parade of spectral evidence of postal witchcraft.

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  5. ScottC, on August 18, 2020 at 3:23 pm said:

    Classic case of Trump Derangement Syndrome.

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/18/lt-gov-of-new-york-wants-trumps-pardon-for-susan-b-anthony-rescinded/

    Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul, is calling for President Trump to “rescind his pardon” for women’s rights activist Susan B. Anthony.

    “As highest ranking woman elected official in New York and on behalf of Susan B. Anthony’s legacy we demand Trump rescind his pardon. She was proud of her arrest to draw attention to the cause for women’s rights, and never paid her fine. Let her Rest In Peace, @realDonaldTrump,” Hochul tweeted Tuesday.

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  6. ScottC, on August 19, 2020 at 1:05 am said:

    This is pretty funny. Elizabeth Warren is still pretending to be a Native American.

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/08/18/democratic-national-convention-puts-elizabeth-warren-on-native-american-panel/

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  7. jnc4p, on August 19, 2020 at 5:58 pm said:

    Taibbi on the Post Office:

    “The Press Cries Wolf

    The post office is at the center of the latest moral panic, but how can readers tell what’s worth a real freakout anymore?

    Matt Taibbi”

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-press-that-cried-wolf

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