Morning Report: Fed week

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3218 14.6
Oil (WTI) 41.54 0.22
10 year government bond yield 0.58%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 2.98%

 

Stocks are higher this morning in anticipation of further stimulus out of DC. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

The FOMC will meet this week. There should be no changes to monetary policy, but perhaps there will be discussions about further measures the Fed could take to support the economy.

 

Aside from the Fed, we will get the first pass at second quarter GDP on Thursday. The consensus is a decline of 35%. Friday will have personal income and outlays. We will also get consumer confidence numbers this week.

 

Black Knight is acquiring Optimal Blue from Cannae Holdings. “Optimal Blue is a business that we have respected for many years. By bringing Optimal Blue into the Black Knight family, we will be adding industry-leading product, pricing and eligibility (PPE) capabilities to our already robust set of solutions and enhancing our already comprehensive data and analytics capabilities,” said Anthony Jabbour, CEO of Black Knight. “In addition to Optimal Blue’s high-quality and passionate management team, we are pleased and honored to be partnering with two experienced and successful investors in Cannae and THL, both of which we have known and respected for a long time and are confident will provide meaningful value-add.” Cannae is trying to acquire CoreLogic, which just reported earnings this morning.

 

1 in 3 homeowners could save $300 a month on their mortgage payment by refinancing. This works out to be 15.6 million homeowners. That said, many are unable to refi due to tighter credit these days. “Mortgage lenders are being exceptionally cautious about who they lend to, in part due to a fear of borrowers who immediately request forbearance on the loan, before the loan can be sold on by the issuer,” said Jeff Tucker, economist at Zillow.com. “This is putting pressure on lenders to effectively narrow their credit box, especially reducing access for borrowers with FICO scores below 700.”

 

Jumbo mortgages are no longer the cheapest mortgages around. In mid-July, the average rate on a jumbo was 3.77%, about 40 basis points higher than the typical conforming rate. This reversed a trend that had been in place since 2015. Blame COVID and the resulting stress in the financial markets. Jumbo and non-QM securitizations dried up in March and have yet to return. Forbearance is an issue as well, with 10% of jumbos in forbearance versus 8% for all mortgages.

 

The Trump Administration reversed a particularly aggressive reading of the Affirmatively Furthering Fair Housing rule implemented by the Obama Administration which attempted to Federalize local zoning restrictions. Despite all the howling in the media, we are just going back to the standard that existed from 1968 through 2015.

32 Responses

  1. This pretty much sums up my own thoughts.

    http://ace.mu.nu/archives/389255.php

    I’m not a “Covid denier.” It has clearly killed an awful lot of people, especially in nursing homes where it was introduced and allowed to run rampant. But I’ve also learned that I cannot believe a single thing being told to me by the journalists, politicians, and epidemiologists constituting Team Covid.

    Like

    • Trump Law'n Order ad

      Panel on right is actually from Ukraine in 2014.

      Like

    • “Weeks of raucous demonstrations had nearly wound down in Portland at the beginning of July. Then President Donald Trump sent in federal forces,” notes The Oregonian. “The protests against police violence and systemic racism quickly grew bigger and louder.”

      I have no direct knowledge, but color me skeptical that this is true.

      The federal government’s minions have successfully provoked a nasty reaction in Seattle, Austin, and elsewhere.

      Yeah, everything was so peaceful before the feds got involved.

      Like

      • Not necessarily peaceful, but fed involvement has made it worse is the point.

        Both Trump and the protesters/rioters want an escalation for their own purposes. They are symbiotic.

        Like

        • jnc:

          Not necessarily peaceful, but fed involvement has made it worse is the point.

          The title on the article wasn’t “Feds and Rioters are Both Jackbooted Thugs”. I took the point to be that what is going on in Seattle and Austin and elsewhere was “provoked” by the feds. I call complete bullshit on that.

          Both Trump and the protesters/rioters want an escalation for their own purposes.

          So do the Dems and all the Trump critics. But the fact that all the political players see an escalation as beneficial to themselves doesn’t change how it all got started. Seems to me the feds are responding to violence, not provoking it.

          Like

      • Pretty sure the Fed response in Portland was due to damage, rioting at and around Federal courthouse in the once lovely city of Portland.

        I had a blast at a downtown titty bar during the Portland Rose Festival in the summer of ’86 when I was in The Crotch.

        Like

        • “Pretty sure the Fed response in Portland was due to damage, rioting at and around Federal courthouse in the once lovely city of Portland. ”

          And Trump’s political needs.

          But I stand by my point that it hasn’t improved the situation, it’s made it worse.

          Like

        • jnc:

          And Trump’s political needs.

          And the Dems’ political needs. And the protestors political needs. So why is it on Trump but not them?

          Like

        • I don’t imagine standing down and letting the protesters destroy/burn down federal property would make the situation better. If there was another option, I’m not sure what it was.

          Like

        • jnc:

          But I stand by my point that it hasn’t improved the situation, it’s made it worse.

          So if I am throwing rocks at my neighbor’s house, and when the police show up to stop me, I decide to show them by burning it down altogether, would you say that the police have “made things worse”?

          Like

        • Decent of the Austin police to release him before the jury sentences him to death. It allows him to get his affairs in order. If he was smart he’d flee the country, it’s his last chance.

          https://www.foxnews.com/us/austin-police-release-man-who-says-he-shot-armed-protester

          Like

        • Do any of us doubt they’ll pull some sort of VW/diesel emissions scam?

          https://www.breitbart.com/news/bmw-vows-to-tie-executive-pay-to-climate-goals/

          I’ll be honest, I still admire VW’s balls on that one.

          Like

        • McWing:

          The chief wouldn’t say why the vehicle turned into the protesters, saying it was part of the investigation.

          I’m thinking this is the key piece of information.

          Like

        • I am not sure why Trump feels the need to get involved. The oh-so progressive cities made their beds. they can lie in them.

          Like

        • I think the DC riot suppression was appropriate, particularly given Lafayette park’s proximity to the Whitehouse.

          The other cities? I think it’s his base wanting to see some heads cracked.

          I say let them burn but I am enjoying the head cracking.

          Like

        • This is how you troll for ESG funds…

          Electric trucks. Made out of hemp. With hemp batteries

          https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/alyi-confirms-electric-delivery-truck-for-sub-saharan-africa-301100256.html

          Yes, it is a real company and yes it trades for a penny a share.

          Oh, and funding its development with a new coin.

          Day trader special.

          Like

        • If the electricity generated to charge the batteries has a link to hemp I’ll nut.

          Like

        • “So why is it on Trump but not them?”

          Because he ordered the federal response.

          Like

        • jnc:

          Because he ordered the federal response.

          The operative word being…response. Responses are what get provoked.

          Like

        • ” If there was another option, I’m not sure what it was.”

          Limit the response to actually defending federal property and not go grab people off the street in unmarked cars.

          And not shoot protesters with rubber bullets and tear gas just for entertainment value.

          McWing’s take is more on point:

          “The other cities? I think it’s his base wanting to see some heads cracked.

          I say let them burn but I am enjoying the head cracking.”

          Like

        • “The operative word being…response. Responses are what get provoked.”

          I could be proceeding from a false premise.

          Did you think the federal responses to Ruby Ridge and Waco, etc were excessive?

          That’s the point of the article, that you can’t condemn those and also support what Trump is doing.

          Like

        • jnc:

          That’s the point of the article, that you can’t condemn those and also support what Trump is doing.

          But I can recognize that the rioting and violence pre-existed what Trump is doing, and therefore cannot be said to have been “provoked” by it.

          It is fine to argue that the Feds should be using different tactics, but not on the grounds that their tactics are causing the violence and rioting. That would be reversing cause and effect. As far as I know, Trump has not sent the troops into cities where there had as yet not been any rioting or attacks on buildings. If he has, I am happy to be corrected.

          Like

  2. NoVA you around?

    Like

  3. Worth noting. Woke layoffs are now a thing:

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-race-chevron-idUSKCN24P1Y7

    Like

    • ESG funds are behind these sorts of things.

      They don’t care about shareholder returns, they care about moving the leftist ball down the field.

      Like

  4. Good read:

    “Two months since the riots, and still no “National Conversation”

    Michael Tracey
    Jul 27”

    View at Medium.com

    Like

Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: