Morning Report: KB Home misses

Posted on June 25, 2020 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3039 -13.1
Oil (WTI) 37.84 -0.49
10 year government bond yield 0.66%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.16%

 

Stocks are lower this morning on an increase in COVID cases in states like AZ and TX. Bonds and MBS are up.

 

Initial Jobless Claims were more or less flat at 1.5 million last week.

 

The third estimate for first quarter GDP came in at -5%, more or less in line with estimates. The price index (inflation) came in at 1.4%, which is lower than the Fed’s target.

 

The MBA is urging FHFA to expand access to the Federal Home Loan Banking network, by allowing REITs and independent mortgage banks to borrow from the FHLB. The FHLB provides longer-term financing at competitive rates. The collapse in the jumbo and non-QM market was directly related to mortgage REITs which funded their balance sheets with repurchase agreements and had to sell paper / stop buying when the margin calls came in March and April. It isn’t a panacea (some REITs with FHLB loans still were forced to deleverage) however it would have mitigated the collapse at least somewhat. Giving the independent mortgage banks access would make them more stable as well.

 

Homebuilder KB Home reported earnings yesterday. Earnings per share beat the Street, but revenues and orders disappointed the Street and sent the stock down 13% on the open. “The prolonged stay-at-home public health orders, resulting economic shutdown and our conservative approach to navigating the uncertain environment significantly impacted our orders during the quarter. However, following a low point in April, we are very encouraged by the resilience of housing market demand. We experienced steady and significant improvement in our order trends beginning in May, which was further fueled by welcoming walk-in traffic to our communities. This improvement has accelerated dramatically in the first three weeks of June during which time we have achieved a modestly positive year-over-year comparison, as orders have returned to more normalized levels,” concluded [KB Home CEO] Jeffrey Mezger. Orders fell 4% in March, 59% in April, and 42% in May. For the first 3 weeks of June, orders were up 4%. Still demand for housing remains robust.

 

Treasury is considering delaying Tax Day past July 15. “As of now, we’re not intending on doing that, but it is something that we may consider,” Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said in a June 23 interview at the Bloomberg Invest Global 2020 virtual summit. He said he was considering another delay to Sept. 15.

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |

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24 Responses

    • jnc4p, on June 25, 2020 at 12:45 pm said:

      Good piece. This is something progressives never seem to get:

      “I’d much rather you just tell me to my face that we’re not friends. That’s Trump. I respect that.”

      Reminds me a bit of this piece:

      Also, check out the authors Twitter responses to feedback:

      That’s the one thing Twitter is good for.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
      • Kevin S. Willis, on June 25, 2020 at 1:05 pm said:

        Why the Republican’s can’t get a solid black conservative to either run for president or run for senate or in certain districts, I don’t know. But it’s too late because now black people can be white supremacists if they disagree with white leftists, so . . . no more opportunity.

        Will be interesting to see how things play out in November.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply
      • Kevin S. Willis, on June 25, 2020 at 2:18 pm said:

        A lot of the replies are positive but then some are just weirdly partisan: “How dare you post this right-wing propaganda for Republicans” kind of things. My favorite:

        This doesn’t align with recent Washington Post polling showing black Americans are mostly “optimistic” about change

        “This isn’t what Pravda says about the 5 Year Plan!”

        Like

        Reply
    • jnc4p, on June 25, 2020 at 1:23 pm said:

      NoVA, that’s the best piece I’ve read all year, if not the last couple of years.

      It’s also the perfect rebuttal to those “journalists” who think that they should be opining more instead of straight reporting.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
    • ScottC, on June 25, 2020 at 2:55 pm said:

      Interesting article. But I would have asked a question that it apparently didn’t occur to the author to ask: What exactly is their objection to Trump?

      Like

      Reply
      • jnc4p, on June 25, 2020 at 3:55 pm said:

        They actually answered that:

        “I asked Thomas for his thoughts on politics. “The whole Republican agenda is just codespeak for racism. It lacks knowledge. These Republicans go around talking ‘law and order’ without having conversations about how Black people end up in these circumstances in the first place,” he said.”

        Like

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        • ScottC, on June 26, 2020 at 3:40 am said:

          jnc:

          They actually answered that:

          Well that seems more just a generic indictment of Republicans in general than of Trump himself. But I suppose that might be the answer…they object to Trump for no other reason than that he is a Republican.

          As an aside, I think that Republicans have a lot of conversations about how black people end up in these circumstances. They just aren’t focused on blaming racism.

          Like

  3. jnc4p, on June 25, 2020 at 12:19 pm said:

    Yep:

    “They’ll Come for Us Next

    By Branko Marcetic”

    https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/06/anti-corbyn-blair-censorship-google-labour-uk

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  4. novahockey, on June 25, 2020 at 1:27 pm said:

    this reads like what a RW nutjob would write if one were to make up a story about a woker-than-thou progressive neighborhood.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  5. Kevin S. Willis, on June 25, 2020 at 2:58 pm said:

    Tim Pool argues that conservatives and Republicans aren’t doing enough and are going to lose, and that conservatives need to show up and do some MLK style peaceful protesting. The problem being of course that most conservatives have jobs.

    But also touches on project Veritas exposing the bias on Facebook. Including a “hate speech” exception that, as Facebook policy, explicitly allows hate speech towards straight white males, but no one else. Time stamped from a year ago, as it turned out.

    One of the FB mods goes through and deletes any post of someone in a MAGA hat as terrorism.

    World’s gone a little whacky. The Trump Syndrome, apparently.

    Like

    Reply
    • novahockey, on June 25, 2020 at 3:55 pm said:

      “The problem being of course that most conservatives have jobs.”
      that, and an aversion to being beaten by a mob.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
      • Brent Nyitray, on June 25, 2020 at 7:30 pm said:

        Not long after Andy and I met, we were driving down Pennsylvania Avenue and encountered some or another noisy pinko demonstration. “How come,” I asked Andy, “whenever something upsets the Left, you see immediate marches and parades and rallies with signs already printed and rhyming slogans already composed, whereas whenever something upsets the Right, you see two members of the Young Americans for Freedom waving a six-inch American flag?”

        “We have jobs,” said Andy.

        Like

        Reply

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