Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P futures | 2858 | 70.1 |
Oil (WTI) | 17.83 | -2.29 |
10 year government bond yield | 0.63% | |
30 year fixed rate mortgage | 3.38% |
Stocks are higher this morning after positive news out of Gilead regarding a treatment for COVID-19. Bonds and MBS are down small.
Investors are bullish after the government released its plan to re-start the economy. It will involve a staggered, 3 stage process which will be left up largely to state governors. Under the first phase, movie theaters, restaurants, sports venues, places of worship, gyms and other venues could re-open with some restrictions. Schools would remain closed, and workplaces could re-open although companies will be encouraged to telecommute. Under the second phase, non-essential travel could resume, bars and schools could re-open. Under the final phase, visits to hospitals and nursing homes could resume. The Trump Administration believes some states could be ready to open quickly, by May 1. Others will take some time. Separately, NY extended the lockdown to May 15.
Politicians are beginning to become more vocal regarding the need to help servicers. Senators Maxine Waters and Sherrod Brown both called on the Fed and Treasury to provide liquidity to servicers struggling with advances. “Mortgage servicers are expected to face increased strain as millions of homeowners and renters lose jobs, are furloughed, or see reduced hours, all of which will keep them from making mortgage and rent payments, as a result of this public health crisis. We must not allow the pandemic to destabilize critical markets, including our housing market,” the lawmakers wrote in their letter.
China’s first quarter GDP dropped for the first time on record. China went into this crisis with a real estate bubble and a shaky banking system to begin with. Their economy will bear watching going forward, especially if the real estate bubble bursts and China begins exporting deflation. If it does, plan on 0% rates in the US for longer.
Chase has stopped accepting HELOC applications for the time being. This is just after instituting a 700 FICO floor and 20% down on loans. Chase wasn’t really in the FHA space after getting socked with a deluge of false claims act penalties in the aftermath of the 2008 crisis. I have to wonder if the COVID-19 Crisis restricts the FHA market even further overall going forward. This is the last thing the left wants to see, and is perhaps why we are seeing Democrats like Maxine Waters and Sherrod Brown suddenly care about servicers.
Last week, I participated on Louis Amaya’s Capital Markets Today podcast and discussed the issues affecting the origination market. You can get the replay here.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
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Did I link this before? Probably. But I still love it.
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Amusing:
“Democrats and Mainstream Media Were the Real Kremlin Assets
By Branko Marcetic
Go ahead and laugh: newly declassified sections of a Justice Department report suggest that the Russiagate conspiracy theory may itself have been part of a Kremlin disinformation campaign.”
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2020/04/russiagate-christopher-steele-dossier-trump-election
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Go ahead and laugh: newly declassified sections of a Justice Department report suggest that the Russiagate conspiracy theory may itself have been part of a Kremlin disinformation campaign.
Isn’t it strange that over the course of a 3yr investigation ostensibly into Russian interference into US elections, this never came up. Perhaps the investigation wasn’t actually about Russian activity at all.
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I always suspected Russiagate was just a smokescreen to cover for Saint Barack’s spying on the Trump Campaign.
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Politico worries about the libertarian backlash from social distancing
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/16/the-shutdown-backlash-is-coming-soonwith-a-vengeance-189809?fbclid=IwAR0OTb_J-kAx-3gPGNnLvbwQCCLh2FxZANiD6w9WhbdmuygUL2-t-YT-ySk
That isn’t a caricature. It is an accurate description of liberalism. And the scolding sanctimonious character is not “supposedly” progressive. It is an accurate description.
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I guess the want to dissolve the electorate and get a new one.
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Brent:
That isn’t a caricature. It is an accurate description of liberalism. And the scolding sanctimonious character is not “supposedly” progressive. It is an accurate description.
Exactly!
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Totally normal, I’m sure.
Priestap was asked during an interview with the IG why the negative Steele information was not included in his file, or disclosed to the FISA Court.
He said that he “may have made a commitment” to Steele’s former employer, “not to document the former employer’s views on Steele as a condition for obtaining the information” on the retired spy.
https://dailycaller.com/2020/04/17/christopher-steele-bill-priestap-dossier-mi6/
All crazy conspiracy theories and can be completely disregarded.
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Helluva “what if?”.
As unemployment approaches 20%, each 1% rise can result in 3.3% spike in drug OD/ 1% increase in suicides (National Bureau of Economic Research.) If unemployment hits 32%, ~77,000 Americans may die as a result. Will economic fallout mortality be greater than the virus itself?
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“The dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States and yet lands only in Europe.”
― Tom Wolfe
In fairness, Democrats are always saying we should be more like Europe.
https://pjmedia.com/trending/new-jersey-woman-charged-with-plotting-to-violate-governors-stay-at-home-order/
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As Jonah Goldberg has quipped, aside from the genocide and the war-mongering, exactly what problem does the left have with fascism?
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Well, when Wilson and FDR were President, they didn’t have a problem with either
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https://pjmedia.com/instapundit/366809/#respond
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I agree with Maher:
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Was talking to my mom this morning. She is pretty much a leftie, and even she can’t stand CNN any more.
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I think this is happening a fair amount–when either side goes too far in one direction, you start leaving people behind. And CNN has abandoned all pretense at objectivity or interest in facts.
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jnc:
I agree with Maher
Ignore the first and last 30 seconds, and I do too. The fact that he feels the need to frame it as problematic simply because it might benefit Trump detracts significantly from his point. The guy is seriously infected with TDS.
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As an analysis, he’s not wrong. This could well play to Trump’s benefit.
And I’ve seen a lot worse cases of TDS.
But I was mostly talking about his media critique. He also had a good interview with Fareed Zakaria that made the same points.
Although, two journalists shooting the shit over a remote video connection with no actual expertise in the field probably isn’t technically an “interview”.
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jnc:
As an analysis, he’s not wrong. This could well play to Trump’s benefit.
Sure, but the fact that it could benefit Trump isn’t what makes it objectionable, yet that is how Maher frames his critique. The critique is solid without any reference to Trump at all, but for Maher its all Trump, all the time. I cant help but think that if he believed the media’s current posture was going to hurt rather than help Trump, his view of it would be considerably different.
And I’ve seen a lot worse cases of TDS.
Maher has been a huge buyer of the whole Russia collusion hoax for 4 years. He actually thinks Trump is a Russian asset. He’s got a bad case.
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Maher has been a huge buyer of the whole Russia collusion hoax for 4 years. He actually thinks Trump is a Russian asset. He’s got a bad case.
He does. Because he’s smart enough to know how stupid that all was from the outset–but was willing to buy into it, because Orange Man Bad.
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This one was good too:
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This one is really good too.
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bronsonstocking/2020/04/19/crenshaw-schools-maher-after-comedian-accuses-trump-of-poorly-handling-the-corona-n2567205
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jnc:
This one was good too:
The one topic that I think Maher has always been very good on is political correctness.
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That’s despicably racist rant, according to the Daily Beast.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/bill-maher-goes-on-despicably-racist-rant-against-china-over-coronavirus
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