Morning Report: Protests in Iran

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3277 12.25
Oil (WTI) 59.13 0.04
10 year government bond yield 1.85%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.88%

 

Stocks are higher this morning as we anticipate a phase 1 trade deal with China this week. Bonds and MBS are flat.

 

Earnings season kicks off this week with the major banks all reporting. JP Morgan, Wells, and Citi all report tomorrow. We will get inflation data, retail sales and housing starts this week as well. With the Fed on hold for the moment (and probably through the election), economic data will become less of a market-mover unless it is way out the expected range. Neel Kashkari thinks the next move for the Fed could be a rate cut. “If I were to guess the next rate move, my guess (on) the balance of risks, is that it will be down and not up.” The Fed funds futures agree, handicapping a better-than-50% chance that rates will get cut this year.

 

fed funds futures

 

Iran admitted shooting down an airliner by mistake over the weekend, which has shifted the focus from the US killing a military leader. It looks like there are major protests in Tehran right now. So far, we are not seeing any big effects in the oil market, although North America uses a different benchmark than the rest of the world.

 

HousingWire lays out some predictions for 2020. One big one refers to recruiting. As of 11/24, originators could officially move from a bank to a non-bank or another state and keep originating mortgages while they wait for the new license. This will almost certainly make recruiting for non-banks easier.

 

Mortgage credit availability decreased in December by 3.5%, according to the MBA. “Credit availability fell in December after three months of expansion, driven by drops in both conventional and government supply,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Perhaps most noteworthy was a 6 percent drop in government credit supply because of changes to the Veterans Administration loan program, which eliminated loan limits for certain borrowers as of Jan 1, 2020. This likely prompted many investors to remove VA programs in high cost counties from their offerings. There was also a reduction in streamline refinance programs, as slightly higher rates slowed the refinance market at the end of 2019.”

20 Responses

  1. You knew it was coming:

    “Why Soleimani’s killing is a gift to Vladimir Putin
    The Iran crisis puts Russia’s president in the catbird seat.

    By Dennis Ross”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/01/11/why-soleimanis-killing-is-gift-vladimir-putin/

    Killing terrorists means that Putin wins.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. New Fargo Season looks good:

    Liked by 1 person

  3. It’s the audiences enthusiastic applause to this pandering that really fascinates me.

    I mean, what percentage of the audience even knows a tranny?

    Liked by 1 person

    • no way that would get gamed…

      but i cannot imagine a political group that punches above its population weight the way the trans lobby does.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Yes, let’s put biological men who are typically stronger and more powerful than their female fellow inmates into close quarters with a bunch of women. That’s sure to go well.

      They are basically applauding what will statistically amount to putting a potential male rapist in with a bunch of women, so that man can rape some of those women. However often, who knows? But the answer will be: more than zero times.

      Clearly, the only answer is dedicated trans-prisons.

      Like

  4. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/trump-tweet-in-farsi-the-most-liked-persian-tweet-in-history-of-twitter

    Can’t say I feel like Donald Trump is doing anything wrong in his handling of the Iranian situation at present.

    364k likes. Most liked Persian-language tweet in the history of twitter.

    Like

    • The replies are amazing. Iranians and other middle-easterners are praising Trump and all these Americans are calling him a war criminal.

      They better be glad the average Iranian can’t vote in American elections. That’s all I gotta say.

      Like

      • That Putin is an evil genius

        Liked by 1 person

      • And they really do continue to blame Trump for the downing of that passenger jet. I mean, our American talking heads. Not the Iranians. They know who shot it down. But as far as the American left is concerned it was Trump, and Trump is a war criminal. I mean, he wasn’t my first or fourth choice for president either . . . but come on.

        Like

    • I imagine NeverTrumpers and #Impeach-ers are very sympathetic with the press here–and I would do, if the press was anything like what it pretends to be. But it’s not.

      That being said, I’m sure I could pick a handful of reporters that I think would be good in a Whitehouse press pool. Matt Taibbi, for example. Maybe Glen Greenwald. I’m sure a good scouring could find a few dozen reporters who actually report news rather than craft narrative, and actually ask informational questions rather than play gotcha “journalism”.

      But given the overall state of the press as a loosely affiliated collective of world-changers desperate to craft a narrative so the rest of us less-elevated in the general populace can be told what to think . . . I think Trump is doing the right thing here. It’s not just that they are hyper-Critical of Trump, but they are arrogant, live in a bubble, and are mostly pathological narcissist with grandiose opinions of themselves and very, very low opinions of the public they should be serving. The treat their status as “the fourth estate” as if it is a religious calling where their are the popes and priests and bishops and the rest of us are the peasants coming to be told what God thinks and to beg forgiveness.

      I get what Trump is doing here. I liked that Obama went on Fox–I get reaching out to critics and hostile journalists. I fully support that. If Trump did that, I would get that, too. But frankly Obama had a lot more sympathy at Fox than Trump has with the rest of the mainstream media.

      I’ve mentioned it before, but will never forget the journalist–I think it was NPR, may have been one of the big three–complaining about how President Elect went out to dinner without informing the press he was doing it. There whole contention seemed to be that the president existed to serve them and their holy duty and that he would dare to go out to dinner without telling the press where and when was tantamount to treason.

      The press has earned their current status.

      Like

  5. Seriously, why should we care is the Ruskies hacked Burisma.

    https://hotair.com/archives/ed-morrissey/2020/01/14/hmmm-russian-hackers-breach-burisma-reason/

    Genuinely interested in why this is Bad.

    Like

  6. As political stunts go, this was a pretty good one.

    Like

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