Morning Report: Strong jobs data

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2928 9
Eurostoxx index 390.26 -0.72
Oil (WTI) 61.85 0.04
10 year government bond yield 2.56%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.20%

 

Stocks are higher after the strong payroll number. Bonds and MBS are up small.

 

Jobs report data dump:

  • Nonfarm payrolls up 263,000
  • Unemployment rate 3.6%
  • Labor Force participation rate 62.8%
  • Average hourly earnings up 0.2% MOM / 3.2% YOY
  • Employment – Population ratio 60.8%

Overall it was a Goldilocks report for the markets. Stocks are happy about the payroll number while bonds like the wage data. Note the unemployment rate is at the lowest level since Jimi Hendrix did the Star Spangled Banner at Woodstock. We saw an uptick in construction workers as well as health care.

 

unemployment rate

 

The Washington Post noted how difficult finding truck drivers has become: McClane Company is a large trucking and warehouse firm that specializes in moving food and grocery items around the country. They are advertising truck driving jobs for $70,000 a year and a $6,000 sign on bonus in Jessup, Pennsylvania, but even at that level of pay it’s been tough to get enough people in the door.

 

Steve Moore withdrew his name from consideration to join the Fed after it appeared the he wouldn’t have the votes to get confirmed. Establishment Republicans are not ready for non-traditional types to join the Fed, though it might be a good thing, if only to break the group-think that goes on there.

 

Ginnie Mae is taking a look at 90%+ LTV cash out refinancings. They put out a request for input. Initially, they were looking at the prepay speeds for VA IRRRL loans, and how it was affecting GNMA MBS investors, but it looks like they are now broadening their focus as VA loans still have higher prepay speeds than comparable FHA or Fannie / Freddie loans. Specifically, VA refis occur earlier than FHA refis, and high LTV VA cashouts have higher prepay speeds than comparable FHA cash-outs. FHA cash outs are limited to 85% LTV, while VAs can go up to 97.5%, and the funding fee can be financed. It looks like GNMA is not looking at tightening the restrictions for VA refis, but it is more interested in perhaps creating new GII pools for shorter duration loans (i.e. fast prepays).

 

VA versus FHA speeds

9 Responses

  1. Won’t anybody think about the IRS?

    Like

    • Trump really does have a fascinating effect on people.

      …the most important national security investigation in a generation.

      More important that the investigation into 9/11? More important than the investigation into Iraq’s WMDs? Seriously?

      The report’s details add to an existing body of information already in the public domain documenting the President’s violations of his oath, including but not limited to his denigration of the free press, verbal attacks on members of the judiciary, encouragement of law enforcement officers to violate the law, and incessant lying to the American people.

      These guys are interpreting the president’s oath of office the same way a progressive interprets the Constitution. Who knew that “faithfully execut[ing] the office of the President”‘ and preserv[ing], protect[ing], and defend[ing] the Constitution” gave journalists and judges immunity from presidential criticism?

      As for the “incessant lying to the American people”, just how unfamiliar with DC politics are these naifs?

      Like

      • As for the “incessant lying to the American people”, just how unfamiliar with DC politics are these naifs?

        If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor.

        Liked by 1 person

      • More important that the investigation into 9/11? More important than the investigation into Iraq’s WMDs? Seriously?

        More important than the Church commission! More important than Watergate! I’m not sure why they confined it generation. It’s the most important investigation ever in the history of humanity.

        The report’s details add to an existing body of information already in the public domain documenting the President’s violations of his oath

        Has there been a president where their behavior and decisions couldn’t be spun in the same manner? Washington owned slaves! Trump is clearly better on that moral dimension than Washington or Jefferson.

        This sort of rhetorical reconstruction can be done with any president–or anybody, really. The oath the president makes is to protect and uphold the constitution. Is Trump worse than Obama in that regard? Worse that George W. Bush? Clinton? There are certainly just as valid arguments to be made that Obama and Bush were worse on that score than Trump.

        his denigration of the free press, verbal attacks on members of the judiciary, encouragement of law enforcement officers to violate the law, and incessant lying to the American people

        None of those things are covered by the president’s oath of office. As you note. So these people are lying to us. By their own definition. So are they better than Trump?

        just how unfamiliar with DC politics are these naifs?

        Progressives don’t lie. They nuance. They put things in terms that the less-brilliant can understand. They omit unnecessary or confusing details that would cloud the issue. That’s not lying. Sheesh. It’s totally different.

        Like

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