Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P futures | 2890.5 | 8 |
Eurostoxx index | 386.66 | 0.98 |
Oil (WTI) | 64.39 | 0.06 |
10 year government bond yield | 2.50% | |
30 year fixed rate mortgage | 4.16% |
Stocks are higher this morning on overseas strength after the ECB maintained interest rates. Bonds and MBS are up.
The Fed will release the minutes from its March meeting this afternoon at 2:00 pm. Given the magnitude of the shift in their Fed Funds forecasts, it should make interesting reading. There is a chance that it could be market-moving, especially since rates have moved back up.
Inflation at the consumer level rose 0.4% MOM in March, and increased 1.9% YOY. Ex-food and energy, it rose 0.1% MOM and increased 2.0% YOY. Energy prices are increasing again, so expect to see more upward pressure on prices. The 0.4% increase was the biggest in 14 months.
Job openings fell in February by about 500,000. Job openings had a big growth spurt in 2018 and now appear to be pulling back a little. Job openings fell in most sectors, with hotels and accomodation leading. Hiring fell in several sectors as well, including construction. The most important number – the quits rate – was stuck again at 2.3%. The quits rate is a leading indicator for wage growth, and is a number the Fed watches closely. Between the latest payroll numbers and this report, we can see evidence that the labor market is cooling a bit. That said, the number of job openings (7.1MM) are still larger than the number of unemployed (6.2MM).
The IMF cut its forecast for 2019 global growth from 3.5% to 3.3%, with the risks solidly to the downside. “The balance of risks remains skewed to the downside,” the IMF said. “Failure to resolve differences and a resulting increase in tariff barriers above and beyond what is incorporated into the forecast would lead to higher costs of imported intermediate and capital goods and higher final goods prices for consumers.”
Mortgage Applications decreased 5.6% last week as purchases rose 1% and refis fell 11%. “Mortgage rates inched back up last week, but remain substantially lower than they were in the second half of last year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. “As quickly as refinance activity increased in recent weeks, it backed down again in response to the rise in rates. However, this spring’s lower borrowing costs, coupled with the strong job market, continue to push purchase application volume much higher. Purchase applications are now up more than 13 percent compared to last year at this time.” Government loans (FHA / VA) increased their share of the market, and the average contract interest rate rose 4 basis points to 4.4%.
The CEOs of major banks head to the House for what promised to be a tongue-lashing from Democrats. Bank of America attempted to head off criticism by raising the minimum wage for its employees. There will almost certainly be kvetching about CEO pay, and the financial system will almost certainly be Enemy #1 for the Democrats running in 2020.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
NoVA – Thanks for the heads up on the slow processing of IRS refunds this year. I’m in the same boat as you, massively over withheld in the estimated quarterly payments but rather than have to cut a check for my 2019 Q1 while still waiting for my 2018 refund, I just applied most of my 2018 refund to it so it was a wash. As a side note, paying off my mortgage last year meant that for the first time since my 20’s the standard deduction was a better choice for me.
PL ignorance never ceases to amaze me though.
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it’s really something.
I typically do the same and apply the refund the next year, but wanted to clear out some debt.
i’ve got 13 years left on the mortgage but want to finish that off in 10.
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If this starts a trend on entry level workers, Democrats are going to have a real problem beating Trump.
https://www.vox.com/2019/4/10/18301931/bank-of-america-starting-salary-pay-raise
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Give then takeover by the McGovern wing of the party—only updated to be more insane for 2019–they are going to have a hard time unseating Trump no matter what.
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He keeps giving me reasons to support him:
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I’ll be in my bunk!
On a side note, the Chinese will now have to hack individual cabinets to get personnel information in the future. Poor bastards.
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That is never gonna happen.
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Still, it shows his heart is in the right place.
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but how will we know when there is a snow day?
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This will be interesting, especially if it turns out that the FBI lied on the FISA application:
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How to handle a couple of flaming douches
https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=TM78_1554848436
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I could cut diamonds right now!
https://news.yahoo.com/flight-shame-swedes-rethinking-air-travel-032414475.html
Climate change, ridding this country of filthy scandies, one Celsius degree at a time!
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Good religionists must sacrifice for their god, and make choices that align with their faith.
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KosKidz no longer love Julian Assange (though,in fairness they stopped loving him after Bradeley Manning leak because it hurt Hillary).
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/4/11/1849446/-Julian-Assange-arrested-in-London?utm_campaign=trending
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