Morning Report: New Home Sales drop

Posted on November 29, 2018 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2932.25 -9
Eurostoxx index 357.94 0.56
Oil (WTI) 50.06 -0.15
10 year government bond yield 3.02%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.85%

 

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

 

Jerome Powell spoke yesterday and said that rates are “just below” the neutral range. These comments pushed up bond prices (rates fell) and contributed to a rally in the stock market. He may have been walking back an earlier unscripted statement which said that the Fed had a “ways to go” before hitting neutral. He also said that there were no financial bubbles in the US and that the stock market was near its long term valuation average. This put a bid under stocks and other risk assets.

 

The Fed Funds futures didn’t really react all that much, however a consensus seems to be building that we are looking at a hike in December, and probably one more in 2019.

 

TBAs have spent the last couple of days catching up with the move lower in the bond market. MBS were up a good 6 ticks or so in a flat Treasury market. Note we will get the minutes from the November FOMC meeting at 2:00 pm EST. It probably should be a nonevent, but just be aware.

 

GDP came in at 3.5% for the third quarter. This was the second revision out of BEA and there were few changes. This is a deceleration from Q2’s torrid 4.2% growth rate. The PCE price index rose 1.5%, which is slower than the second quarter’s 2.0% pace, and below the Fed’s target or 2%.

 

GDP

 

Mortgage applications increased 5.5% last week as purchases rose 9% and refis rose 1%. Last week contained the Thanksgiving day holiday, so there were all sorts of adjustments to these numbers. Still it is encouraging.

 

New Home sales came in much weaker than expected, and we saw major, major declines in the Midwest and Northeast (which dropped around 20%). New Home Sales is a notoriously volatile number, and is often subject to major revisions. That said, there is no way to put a positive spin on that number – it was simply lousy.

 

new home sales

 

 

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |

« »

12 Responses

  1. Brent Nyitray, on November 29, 2018 at 8:49 am said:

    Rudolf the Red Nosed Reindeer is apparently problematic

    Like

    Reply
    • Let the mutherfuker burn!, on November 29, 2018 at 8:56 am said:

      It’s obviously an erect phallus.

      Like

      Reply
      • markinaustin, on November 29, 2018 at 8:59 am said:

        Everything is obviously an erect phallus.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply
      • Brent Nyitray, on November 29, 2018 at 9:03 am said:

        maybe it would be ok if they made his nose rainbow colored and tattooed “coexist” on his ass.

        Liked by 1 person

        Reply
        • novahockey, on November 29, 2018 at 10:36 am said:

          you know the tune —

          Rudolph, the non-conforming reindeer
          had a nose that wasn’t sure
          what color it would be tomorrow
          and that makes you a haaater

          Like

      • Kevin S. Willis, on November 29, 2018 at 11:37 am said:

        It’s obviously clickbait. I don’t think anything has advanced cultural leftism as much as the need for “outrageous” and “controversial” clickbait.

        And what’s more clickbaity than attacking beloved classics? “Look how the things you grew up with and loved are awful and you’re a bad person for having liked it” is a great clickbait strategy. People horrified that HuffPo is seriously attacking a beloved Christmas classic will circulate the link, and around and around it goes.

        It’s a marketing strategy for web publication who otherwise could not hope to stay in business.

        Like

        Reply
      • Kevin S. Willis, on November 29, 2018 at 11:50 am said:

        All the replies for the tweet promoting the video are calling them idiots for the stupidity of the story. Which goes to prove my point: it’s outrage trolling. At least one tweeter called them out on it:

        @Slate and @HuffPost excel at lazy trolling, but especially when it comes to the “This cultural institution that is in no way controversial, is ACTUALLY hateful bigotry” genre
        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes

        Like

        Reply
    • Kevin S. Willis, on November 29, 2018 at 12:35 pm said:

      I’m not sure the government has an obligation to secure immediate, easy 5G access to poor and rural communities.

      I feel like this mostly a self-solving problem. If it’s cell towers, they will be upgraded in time, wherever they are. Telecoms want to be able to tout their coverage.

      If it’s devices, eventually 5G will filter down to the cheapest devices. It’ll just take a while. You’ve got 4G and LTE in burners you can buy at Dollar General now. 5G will come, no matter what the FCC does.

      What do you think?

      Like

      Reply
      • markinaustin, on November 29, 2018 at 1:40 pm said:

        I think not having broadband in a community is not as bad as having it in the community but not for everyone. And I think it is the School District’s issue more than anyone else’s, unless the town or city has great and widespread library facilities with fast internet. I really think that a kid who did not have internet at home in my school district would be dead in the water and might as well be consigned to hell.

        I have used 5G in Europe and frankly, big deal so what? It is NO ACCESS that concerns me, especially for kids in schools that assign website resources.

        Like

        Reply

Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.