Morning Report: Fed Day

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P futures 2805 -11
Eurostoxx index 367.48 1.08
Oil (WTI) 61.92 0.45
10 year government bond yield 3.22%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 4.96%

Stocks are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.

The FOMC announcement will come out at 2:00 pm EST today. No changes in rates are expected, and it should be a nonevent. Don’t expect to see any discussion of the recent sell-off in the stock market. About the only thing that could be interesting would be any discussion of how to quickly to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet, which is sitting at $4.1 trillion in assets, down from a peak of $4.5 trillion. That is still much lower than pre-crisis levels of below $1 trillion.

Fed assets

Donald Trump indicated that he would entertain an increase in the corporate tax rate if it was used for middle class tax relief. Democrats have complained that the middle class didn’t get a big enough tax cut, and the wealthy / corporations got too big of one. Don’t expect Democrats to bite, however. They want more healthcare entitlement spending and to raise taxes. Republicans aren’t going to vote to raise taxes, period.

UBS said it will fight an expected Justice Department civil suit over mortgage backed securities from 2007. They say they weren’t a “significant originator” of these mortgages.

The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index dipped in October. Affordability concerns are having an effect, as are higher mortgage rates. Despite the recent strong jobs numbers, more people are beginning to have job security worries. This is even more surprising when you consider that the number of respondents who said the economy is on the right track is at a record high.

31 Responses

  1. Yes, this is perfect:

    “A 69-year-old man asks to be declared 49, claiming age is as fluid as gender”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2018/11/08/year-old-man-asks-be-declared-claiming-age-is-fluid-gender/?utm_term=.8596e8325188

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Worth a read:

    As long as Trump is president, everyone is a Clarence Thomas citing strict construction originalist.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. There’s something seriously wrong with these people.

    Like

  4. Just curious, does the caravan still exist or did it disband with the election?

    Like

  5. This perfectly captures Trump v Acosta

    “STEWART: They are personally wounded and offended by this man. He baits them. And they dive in. And what he’s done well, I thought, is appeal to their own narcissism, to their own ego. Because what he says is these are the — and the journalists stand up and say, “We are noble. We are honorable. How dare you, sir?” And they take it personally and now he has changed the conversation to not that his policies are silly or not working or any of those other things, it’s all about the fight. He is able to tune out everything else and get people just focused on the fight. And he’s going to win that fight.”

    http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1810/30/ampr.01.html

    Liked by 1 person

    • Acosta’s narcissism and self-regard seem to mirror Trump’s very well. No wonder they can’t get along.

      Like

    • They fantasize they are the only thing standing between Literally. Hitler. and Kristallnacht II

      Liked by 1 person

      • Standing between? They are REPORTING ON IT!!

        When they get into their Hitler comparisons, they are so excited to be a part of history, to have their Woodward and Bernstien moment, to have their own Vietnam to “transform America” they can barely contain themselves.

        Like ghost hunters finding every sound or breath of wind to be evidence of the ghosts they so want to find, they are convinced Trump is Literally Hitler because they want it so bad.

        For them, only a 3rd term of Obama would have been better. Eh, maybe Hillary.

        But they are loving this.

        Like

    • Although am I missing something? It looks like Acosta doesn’t want the attention to move from him, so is holding on the the mic, but the whole “putting his hands on a young woman” seems like a huge stretch.

      I get it. Trump Whitehouse is all about crafting a narrative independent of facts. But I wish Trump would revoke his press credentials based on him being a hostile, self-aggrandizing weenie who takes himself far too seriously, than “putting his hands on a young woman”. He didn’t even seem to realize anything had happened, he didn’t even seem to be pushing her away, to me.

      … at the same time, fact-free accusations where there is clear contradictory evidence are exactly what the left engages in, all the time, so . . . I mean, eventually those chickens were always going to come home to roost, I’d think.

      Plus, Acosta was being a douche, but he wasn’t manhandling the intern.

      Like

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