Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P Futures | 2762.3 | 17.0 |
Eurostoxx Index | 376.8 | 0.2 |
Oil (WTI) | 60.6 | 0.4 |
US dollar index | 83.9 | 0.0 |
10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.9% | |
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 102.25 | |
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 102.5 | |
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.4 |
Stocks are higher after the strong jobs report. Bonds and MBS are down.
Jobs report data dump:
- Nonfarm payrolls up 313,000 vs expectations of 205,000
- Unemployment rate 4.1% vs expectations of 4.0%
- Labor Force Participation rate 63% vs expectations of 62.7%
- Average Hourly Earnings up .1% / 2.6% vs expectations of .2% / 2.9%
Overall a great report for the stock market. Strong growth in payrolls, without a massive increase in wage growth. The civilian employment to population ratio increased from 60.1% to 60.4%, which matched the post-crisis record set in September. The labor force increased by 800k, while the population increased by 150k. The civilian employment to population ratio peaked in 2000 at 64.7% and bottomed in 2009 at 58.3%, and we are much closer to the low than we are to the high. Some of that is demographics, however there is undoubtedly still slack in the labor market that number bears it out. Which is why we still have the wage inflation typically associated with 6% unemployment and not 4% unemployment.
The Fed funds futures didn’t do much on the report – as we approach the March meeting, the probabilities of a hike continue to increase and are sitting at 89%, and the December futures are still coalescing around a prediction of 3 hikes this year. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans says he would argue against a March hike.
Home Depot is donating $50 million to train 20,000 construction workers over the next decade. “It’s important that we support the trades,” Home Depot CEO Craig Menear said in an interview. “Not only do we sell product to professionals like plumbers and electricians,” but the company also partners with service providers that install kitchen flooring, hot water heaters and other equipment in consumers’ homes. There are still 158,000 job openings in the construction sector that need to be filled.
Donald Trump announced tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum yesterday, with temporary relief for Canada and Mexico while we renegotiate NAFTA. Senator Jeff Flake introduced legislation to overturn these tariffs. I would bet there are enough votes in both chambers to pass the bill, and there might be enough to override a veto.
File under “Only Nixon could go to China:” Donald Trump will meet North Korean President Kim Jong Un in May, to discuss the country abandoning its nuclear weapons program.
Mortgage credit decreased in February, according to the MBA’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index. Apparently the decrease was due to a single large investor in the conventional space. While we are close to post-crisis levels in the index, we are a long way from the go-go days of the bubble.
Soaring stock and real estate prices have sent net worth as a percent of disposable income to record levels. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this number fall as the Fed pulls back support for the asset markets and we finally start seeing wage inflation.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
Only Trump could go to North Korea.
If he pulls this off, the meltdown on the left will be crazy.
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For Mark,
Kossack has now linked you’re preferred POTUS candidate, Lindsey Graham, to Russian collusion.
Navy Vet Terp
Mar 09 · 10:25:58 AM
I have no evidence to prove this, but given Paul Manafort used to employ Graham’s campaign manager, and given Graham’s endless bellicosity, I would not be surprised that he’s somehow implicated in all this, hence his otherwise insane attempts to meddle / shut down the investigation. Here he just seems to be bleating in unison to Trump. I think HE is the one who’s scared. Short leash on him now for sure with whatever kompromat there is. Not unlike Ryan and McConnell, who KNEW where the money was coming fro
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/3/9/1747705/-Lindsey-Graham-issues-bizarre-warning-to-Kim-Jong-Un-Don-t-try-to-play-Donald-Trump#comments
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HAH!
This is what LG gets for trying to cajole DJT on comprehensive immigration reform. I think DJT is the worst POTUS of my lifetime but I want him to succeed with NK anyway. I think he is the worst President of my lifetime but I want him to sign a freaking comprehensive immigration bill.
I also know that if LG had been the R nominee and HRC the D, they would have competed in bellicosity just to prove who was more manly.
So what else is new?
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If this is what it’s like during the worst Presidency of your lifetime, I’ll take it. Since Trump’s election I got w new job with a 30% raise, my quarterly bonuses are the highest iv ever had. I’m making more money than I ever have before, my retirement funds aa doing great and I just received s $1,500 Trump bonus!
More worst Presidency please!
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It’s all about you! 🙂
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Why shouldn’t it?
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Nothing’s gotten better for me, but also nothing has gotten worse. I’ll take it!
That being said Carter (who is perhaps the best Democratic analog for Trump, minus public bellicosity) was not a great president. Nixon is still the worst in my lifetime from my point of view. DJT has the most divisive public persona of any president ever as far as I can tell.
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Wilson and Jackson come to mind as divisive personas. I’d also include FDR. Unsurprisingly I found Obama very antagonistic.
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MarK;
I think DJT is the worst POTUS of my lifetime
I’d be interested in what your metric is.
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The Ministry of Propaganda has taken over duties as the thought police
https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/08/politics/kfile-john-gibbs-hud/index.html
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What are the Democrats going to do with the Farakkhan issue? I think they have a victimhood totem pole problem… Does the Cultural Ministry permit lower medalists in the Victimhood Olympics to criticize those who medaled?
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I think they’ll just ignore it. It’s really about the Women’s March organizers, not Democrats per se.
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Interesting piece on it, along with the linked piece about a picture the media buried of Obama and Farrakhan.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/03/nation-of-islam/555332/
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This is actually pretty good:
“Kim Jong Un Reveals He Is Just Using Trump to Meet Stormy Daniels
By Andy Borowitz
11:54 A.M.”
https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/kim-jong-un-reveals-he-is-just-using-trump-to-meet-stormy-daniels
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The NYT knows its audience.
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2018/03/09/opinion/sunday/smug-liberals-conservative-trolls.html?referer=https://hotair.com/headlines/archives/2018/03/smug-liberals-met-conservative-trolls/
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Liberals and conservatives don’t agree on the definition of “racism.” I think it all stems from that. Liberals buy into the intersectionality stuff that has broadened the definition from what it used to be. Conservatives think liberals are just playing dirty rhetorical pool to make conservative ideas beyond the pale of polite company.
When conservatives think “racism” they think of the KKK and Jim Crow. Liberals see it in SAT scores…
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Ex editor Jill Abramson keeps an obama doll in her purse.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/07/primaries-democratic-wave-2020
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For Kev:
https://www.technologyreview.com/the-download/610463/mit-researchers-say-nuclear-fusion-will-feed-the-grid-in-15-years/
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I hope so!
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Gaia weeps!
https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2018/03/08/the-us-navy-is-cancelling-a-program-to-turn-gas-guzzling-destroyers-into-hybrids/
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That has “Obama military” written all over it, but I do remember during the Gulf War maximizing mileage like a mofo with fuel conservation…
Pre / Post fracking….
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Do it!
http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-bullet-train-cost-increase-20180309-story.html
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I have never gotten the Euro envy with choo choo trains… CA needs commuter trains paralleling every major expressway… Not a HSR train from LA to SF when you can fly there for 25% of the cost of a train ticket in less time….
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pretty funny
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Most Important News Story of All Time
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/the-military-keeps-encountering-ufos-why-doesnt-the-pentagon-care/2018/03/09/242c125c-22ee-11e8-94da-ebf9d112159c_story.html?utm_term=.010f659519eb
I saw one once and so did everyone on my side of the plane. The pilot asked over the intercom if everyone on the right side saw it. He went on to say he had been told it was a mirage every time he had seen it.
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It seems to me that the most obvious explanation for the Pentagon’s apparent lack of interest in investigating these events is that it already actually knows what they are because it is responsible for them. I would rate it more likely that the Pentagon has top secret technology that even most people in the military are unaware of than that someone else has it and the Pentagon just doesn’t care.
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