Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P Futures | 2651.8 | 0.8 |
Eurostoxx Index | 389.0 | -0.2 |
Oil (WTI) | 57.5 | 0.2 |
US dollar index | 87.2 | -0.1 |
10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.37% | |
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 102.625 | |
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 103.625 | |
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.92 |
Stocks are flat this morning after a bomb went off in New York City’s Penn Station. Bonds and MBS are up small.
This week will be dominated by the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The markets are forecasting a 25 basis point hike in the Fed Funds rate, but the economic forecasts will be the focus, as well as the dot plot. It will be interesting to see the 2018 GDP forecast. The Fed was consistently high in their GDP estimates during the Obama administration, however their 2.1% forecast for 2017 looks to have been way light, given that the NY Fed just upped its Q4 GDP estimate to 3.92%. That would put 2017 GDP growth just shy of 3% for the year.
Job openings were largely unchanged at 6 million in October, according to the JOLTS survey. The hires rate increased to 5.6 million. The quits rate was unchanged at 2.2%. The quits rate is the most important number in this release, as increases in the rate usually correspond to increases in wage growth.
So far, the Fed’s tightening has had almost no effect on the market. In the old days, a couple Fed Funds hikes and you would start to see a slowdown. If anything, the economy is accelerating, not decelerating. JP Morgan believes that we won’t see a meaningful effect on the economy until we get to a real 1% Fed Funds rate, where “real” means inflation-adjusted. Currently, the Fed Funds real rate is negative (inflation is higher than the Fed Funds rate). Once the Fed Funds rate is 1.5% higher (or around 2.5%, we should see an impact, which makes that a 2019 event, not a 2018 event.
35% of new home sales in October were for homes that hadn’t even begun construction, the highest number since 2005. Shortages of skilled labor, along with increasing commodity prices are preventing new home sales and housing starts from being high enough to meet demand. Housing will almost certainly be the engine to propel US economic growth over the next few years.
Last week, a news story suggested that the Trump CFPB would back off the banks, referring mainly to Wells Fargo. He then tweeted that the story is false, and if anything, he would increase penalties on the banks for bad behavior.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
Why I can’t stand the left, part 1,234,567
https://www.brookings.edu/research/measuring-the-loss-of-life-from-the-senates-tax-cuts-for-alcohol-producers/
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The death rate during prohibition was zero.
Just saying.
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“But first and foremost, we should acknowledge that nearly all empirical evidence suggests more Americans will lose their lives as a result of the Senate’s proposed change in tax policy. A reduction in excise taxes on alcohol will impose a higher cost than we should be willing to pay—the loss of human life.”
Presumably anything short of a full ban, fully enforced, imposes that cost.
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Correct, when all alcohol is banned, no one dies.
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Presumably the same logic applies to allowing any speed limit over 10 MPH.
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The debate on the floor over these taxes
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I’ll kill the myself if I have too.
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The woke checklist…
https://everydayfeminism.com/2017/12/intersectional-feminist-first-date/
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I don’t see how you can be against “the colonizers” and a few paragraphs latter decry borders.
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nova;
I don’t see how you can be against “the colonizers” and a few paragraphs latter decry borders.
Being progressive means never having to reconcile your arguments with one another.
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So, “Ass, grass or cash, no one rides for free” is no longer operative?
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Lol!
“A legal expert who regularly assists officials in filling out the form disagrees with the Justice Department’s explanation, suggesting that Sessions should have disclosed the meetings,” CNN asserted.
Hired legal expert does not Trump (SWIDT) FBI apparently.
http://dailycaller.com/2017/12/11/cnn-walks-back-jeff-sessions-russia-bombshell/
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Government, protecting you from capital gains since 1980…
https://twitter.com/ReformedBroker/status/940227999844233216
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I can’t ever see Carson having tried a stunt like this.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/arts-and-entertainment/wp/2017/12/01/how-jimmy-kimmels-operative-ruined-roy-moores-rally/
Another nail in the media’s credibility with half the country.
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Slam of EW from what I am guessing is a liberal source:
https://thinkprogress.org/elizabeth-warren-is-not-cherokee-c1ec6c91b696/
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Coming from the Clinton/Kamala Harris wing.
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Lulz
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/12/11/wife-demoted-doj-official-worked-for-firm-behind-anti-trump-dossier.html
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Lol!
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-new-yorker-severs-ties-with-star-reporter-ryan-lizza
Double lol! NPR makes FOXNews looks like a Romney convention. Why are taxpayers forced to pay for these inveterate perverts?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/longtime-npr-host-ashbrook-facing-misconduct-allegations
Why does NPR hate broads?
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Any politician that supports this deserves to have 10 pounds of tofu shoved up his ass…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/taxes-on-meat-seen-joining-carbon-sugar-to-help-limit-emissions?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social
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https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/11/people-are-taking-out-mortgages-to-buy-bitcoin-says-joseph-borg.html
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The key to any good bubble or pyramid scheme is new money coming in.
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