Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P Futures | 2583.0 | 10.0 |
Eurostoxx Index | 397.8 | 2.5 |
Oil (WTI) | 55.0 | 0.6 |
US dollar index | 87.8 | 0.1 |
10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.39% | |
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 102.68 | |
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 103.75 | |
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.99 |
Green on the screen this morning as markets rally worldwide. Bonds and MBS are down.
The Fed decision is due at 2:00 pm EST today. No changes in interest rates are expected, but there is always the risk that something in the statement could move rates. Be careful locking around then. Separately, Donald Trump is scheduled to announce Yellen’s replacement tomorrow.
Mortgage applications continue to fall (six times in the last seven weeks), according to the MBA. Applications decreased by 2.6% as purchases fell 1% and refis fell 5%. Mortgage rates hit a low for 2017 in September, but have risen about 20 basis points since then. The average contract interest rate was 4.22%, an increase of 4 basis points from last week.
ADP saw an uptick in payrolls for October, increasing to 235k. September was revised downward to 110k due to the hurricanes. Many were expecting to see a bigger rebound for October, but it hasn’t happened, at least according to ADP. The BLS is announcing payrolls on Friday, with the Street looking for 325k.
Construction spending rose 0.3% in September, according to the Census Bureau. On a YOY basis, it is up 2%. Residential construction was flat on a month-over-month basis but is up 9.6% YOY.
Manufacturing is still strong, according to the ISM index. It slipped slightly in October to 58.7 from 59.5. Hurricane effects are probably having some effect here.
House Republicans moved back their tax reform reveal by a day, which shows there is some disagreement in whether this can pass. With uniform opposition from Democrats, it will only take a few Republicans to kill it. The state and local tax deduction will probably prove to be the deal killer, and while many Republicans have big philosophical objections to the estate tax, it probably isn’t a hill worth dying on. While people have historically considered senior citizens to be the third rail of politics, in all reality, it is the upper middle class (especially the HENRY’s, which stands for high earnings, not rich yet). They are the ones most affected by changes in 401k contributions, state and local tax deductions, and the mortgage interest deduction. The top 20% pays 95% of the income taxes in this country, according to OMB.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
holy shit
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damn. if only we didn’t have incompetents in charge who could capitalize on this.
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shows what a boot on the neck of the private sector obama was…
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Trump effect causes lefties to jettison Ken Burns.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/10/did-john-kelly-learn-civil-war-nonsense-from-ken-burns.html
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i can’t wait to see a documentary on the Trump Effect that has liberal use of the Kens Burns Effect.
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Well, if we are talking socialism, you would take 80% of her candy, burn 70%, and hand out the rest to your comrades in the party…
Still, fun to see the left get all triggered over this…
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she’s going to enter that into evidence, right. and not keep it.
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Hawt blue on blue action.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-democratic-civil-war-is-getting-nasty-even-if-no-one-is-paying-attention
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/01/trump-impeachment-talk-pelosi-244336
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This one made me laugh. The earnestness is the most amusing part.
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/31/business/russia-presidential-election-media.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&referer=android-app://com.google.android.gm
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Only committed liberals buy our partisan spin anymore..
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It’s hard for me to give a shit about this for a couple of reasons, first, their officers. Second, the defendant did and does deserve a bullet in the back of the head after he was “tortured”.
Churchill was right about Nuremberg and we should have followed his advice then and now.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/guantanamo/article182031196.html
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McWing…..congrats to Houston on the World Series win!
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Great Series. I fell asleep when the Dodgers tied the fifth game at ten. Most exciting game in forever and I fell asleep right before it ended. Old age sometimes sux. I was really happy last night that the game ended before I lost consciousness, and that the ‘stros won.
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Indeed–I was rooting for Houston. Congrats, George!
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There is a lot to laugh at in the piece about Moar Hawt Blue on Blue action.
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/11/02/clinton-brazile-hacks-2016-215774
I had tried to search out any other evidence of internal corruption that would show that the DNC was rigging the system to throw the primary to Hillary, but I could not find any in party affairs or among the staff.
Other than herself, of course.
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The thrust of that article is that HRC took control of DNC money for her campaign before she was the nominee, which was outside Party rules, but arranged by the ever popular curly haired lightweight Debbie Wasserman Shultz. Brazile had to admit all that to Sanders when she looked into what had gone on. So when she wrote any other evidence it was in reference to aside from the DNC in the tank for HRC, there was no other evidence.
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Brazile herself gave debate questions to the HRC campaign during the primary.
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Right. Forgot that. She didn’t mention that one to Sanders, did she.
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