Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P Futures | 2447.5 | 6.8 |
Eurostoxx Index | 375.7 | 1.2 |
Oil (WTI) | 47.7 | 0.3 |
US dollar index | 86.1 | -0.1 |
10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.20% | |
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103.09 | |
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 103.97 | |
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.89 |
Stocks are up this morning as we await Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi speeches in Jackson Hole. Bonds and MBS are flat.
Janet Yellen will be speaking at 10:00 am EST at Jackson Hole. The markets aren’t expecting much in the way of new policy guidance, however given the general illiquidity of the markets, and the fact that it is a Friday during summer, anything that spooks the herd could have outsized effects.
Durable goods orders slipped 6.8% in July largely due to a drop in aircraft orders. Ex-transportation they were up 0.5% MOM and 5.6% YOY. Capital Goods orders rose 0.4% and are up 3.5% YOY. Capital Goods orders are a good proxy for business capital expenditures, and indicates manufacturing confidence in the future.
Credit scoring is something we take for granted, however there is competition to the standard Fair Issac model (FICO). VantageScore (created by Fair Issac competitors Transunion, Equifax and Experian) is attempting to become an alternate scoring methodology for Fannie / Fred and FHFA loans. FHFA is worried that allowing new credit scoring methods would create a race to the bottom, where the agencies end up using the one that shines the most favorable light on borrowers. Some feel the FICO methodology, which doesn’t distinguish between types of debt, is outdated. Vantagescore uses things like utility and rent payment history, which is useful for people who don’t borrow much in the first place and don’t have a FICO score.
The post-election sell-off in bonds is unwinding, and mortgage rates have hit the lows of 2017, matching levels seen just after the election, according to Freddie Mac. The 30 year fixed rate mortgage averaged 3.86% for the week ending August 24, which is the lowest level since November 10, 2016.
The homeownership rate may have bottomed, and perhaps we are seeing a turnaround for the younger buyers. Below is a chart of the homeownership rate by age cohort, going back to 1994. The youngest age brackets definitely have the most volatility, and they are the most affected by the dearth of starter homes for sale.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
It will be interesting to see if anything comes out of this. The local police, state police, mayor of Charlottesville, and the governor are all starting to point fingers at each other over the (lack of) police response.
http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/charlottesville-mayor-got-advice-from-governor-on-white-nationalist-rally/article_66ddff07-55e6-5bd0-9c87-3a2d13055663.html
LikeLiked by 2 people
my theory —
the locals pols are thinking — oh shit, we can’t have our cops roughing up BLM types.
the cops are thinking — oh shit, whatever i do, i’m going to be on youtube and my career is over.
“Charlottesville Mayor Mike Signer on Thursday said that he did not have access to security details before the deadly white nationalist rally earlier this month, claiming that his city’s police chief at one point told the mayor to “stay out of my way.”
and this just doesn’t pass the laugh test. please. the mayor’s office is involved in where i put an ambulance for street festival. but here’s a huge event and the mayor isn’t briefed on security? BS
LikeLiked by 1 person
Slate dips into housing commentary.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2017/08/25/the_housing_industry_still_hasn_t_realized_it_s_building_too_many_homes.html
LikeLike
Sure, cause Slate has a better idea of what will sell than those stooges that build real estate for a living…
LikeLiked by 1 person
Without reading it, I’m guressing its more philosophical than market-based. Lefties thing we should all be packed into giant apartment complexes and bike everywhere.
LikeLike
This is a great line:
LikeLiked by 1 person
The interviewer completely proves his point about the democrats being completely hung up on race and identity politics.
LikeLike
Yes, it’s truly impressive to see it play out like that.
However, Lilla totally glosses over how the New Deal consensus collapsed in the late 1960’s and 1970’s. As with most progressives, he makes the break at 1980. It was earlier than that. Reagan’s election merely ratified it.
This is also spot on:
“The word we is the most important word in the Democratic lexicon. If you cannot appeal to that, you cannot rally people.”
But again he needs to broaden his investigation of how things ceased being about “we”. It wasn’t all identity politics. Making income redistribution the primary focus of progressive politics played a big role too.
LikeLike
Also, the left went too far in trying to social engineer the suburbs after white flight in the 60s.
LikeLike
On a purely tactical level, this is obviously true. Even they don’t change a single core belief, if they want votes they’ve got to stop narrowing the bubble they exist in.
LikeLike
The interviewer does indeed prove the point. That he can see lunacy on the right, but can’t see the lunacy on the left, is a big part of the problem. In no small part because Trump demonstrated that right-wing lunacy remains way more popular with the electorate. Or is less of a turn-off to swing-voters, at the very least.
The interviewee is serious about the facts on the ground. He’s got to be a very lonely progressive.
Who knew that calling voters deplorable was not a way to win votes?
I wonder what that majority number is when you subtract California. I know what it was for the electorate overall.
There are a lot of PLers that considered Obama center-right. For whom Obama was too conservative.
Those people are who the interviewee is talking about. Those are the folks that make progressives, collectively, seem crazy and radical and contemptuous of average Americans.
Interviewer just wants to miss the point.
I think interviewee misses an important point that Democrats routinely miss: they don’t offer appealing tangibles to their voters, or their efforts to do so (eh, some kind of free college, maybe, from Hillary) is a weakness when attractive voters.
I think he’s probably right about that. Making Trump the issue is a real weakness for progressives and Democrats. They’ll be bitching about Trump as the number of Republican governors and legislatures increase.
LikeLike
Some things can’t be parodied:
““Game on,” said Mayor Joe McComb at a news conference. “We’re looking forward to having a very good positive result from this storm. We’ll get through this, we’ll be better for it because the community has been pulling together.””
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/hurricane-harvey-grows-stronger-as-texas-braces-for-historic-storm-to-make-landfall-friday-evening/2017/08/25/b63c8f3c-8992-11e7-a94f-3139abce39f5_story.html
LikeLike
FOX News is now alt-right.
http://thefederalist.com/2017/08/25/cbs-radio-anchor-says-fox-news-alt-right-website/#disqus_thread
LikeLike
If anything Fox is moving left as Rupert’s kids are not as conservative as he was…
LikeLiked by 1 person
Hell, Rupert’s not Conservative, he held a fundraiser for HRC in ’08.
LikeLike
The MSM is moving from liberal to leftist. Bannon was got a great opportunity to develop a right wing network. Which will likely be referred to as a Nazi Network by the MSM.
LikeLike
It is an echo chamber at this point. Conservatives aren’t even watching anymore. So why not give the peanut gallery what they want?
If there was one good thing about Trump is that his war with the media vividly demonstrated their bias and Lippman’s myth of objectivity is officially dead.
LikeLiked by 1 person
This pretty much tracks my view of the AntiFa
https://www.vox.com/2017/8/25/16189064/antifa-charlottesville-activism-mark-bray-interview
LikeLike
I wonder how true that is.
LikeLike
Bray says:
One of the arguments I make in the book is that while analytically that’s (what is a fascist?) a conversation worth having, I don’t know of any empirical examples of anti-fascists successfully stopping a neo-Nazi group and then moving on to other groups that are not racist but merely to the right.
That’s because, the population of neo-nazi groups being so miniscule, they usually simply start with people “merely to the right”. Ask Charles Murray.
EDIT: I should have read further before commenting. Bray essentially contradicts himself and reinforces my point later on.
I can’t speak for the individuals who committed these political actions, but the general defense is that the rationale for shutting down someone like Milo has to do with the fact that his kind of commentary emboldens actual fascists.
There you go. He admits that they are on the slippery slope already.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Walter Duranty has some competition.
LikeLike
Resisting white supremacy my ass… These are the same people who rioted in DC when the World Bank was in town. They are just the far left.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Exactly.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Pretty much. And they aren’t like the old-fashioned lefties. They would have been out protesting the military, with Afghanistan and whatnot. But it’s not dramatic enough. They have to fight Nazis now.
LikeLike
Selma envy… No mountains out there so you gotta build some molehills…
LikeLike
Brent:
Selma envy
I don’t know who coined that, but I think it is a great phrase.
LikeLike
@Scott… Jonah Goldberg..
LikeLike
They said Trump ought to be impeached if he pardoned Arpaio. So he pardons Arpaio.
Heh. They should say he should be impeached if he taxes the rich and institutes a universal basic income, and see what he does. 😜
LikeLike
I haven’t followed the Arpaio case all that closely. IIRC, wasn’t he just enforcing immigration law that obama refused to enforce? And some pinko judge ruled against him on ideological grounds?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Nope, that isn’t what he was doing that got him in repeated trouble. He was rounding up Chicanos whether they were legal or not – a dragnet by skin tone. Most at risk were American citizens born here. We don’t carry our birth certificates with us, have no green card, etc. God forbid you got caught being brown in his County without a driver’s license.
LikeLike
Brent:
This seems like a pretty good summation of the Arpaio situation:
http://thefederalist.com/2017/08/28/joe-arpaio-pardon-trump-level-political-theater-way/
LikeLiked by 1 person
I guarantee that UC Berkeley is a seething cauldren of racial tension. It’s my understanding that half of all enrollee’s have to either be nazis or klan affiliated.
Cohen, worried that the “Alt-right invasion” will aggravate racial tensions at the school,
Berkeley is notorious for its White Pride.
In another tweet, she states that “A valuable education would involve administrators modeling to us how to combat bigotry on campus” even going as far as to call the speakers “hateful no body’s [sic]” and “proponents of ethnic cleansing.”
I know Coulter and Milo have both talked about their love of nazi Germany.
https://www.campusreform.org/?ID=9640
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dfKtq6W5s2s
LikeLiked by 1 person
But you understand. There talk about free speech and tax cuts and what not might embolden real Nazis. And you can’t be too careful.
LikeLike
I’m still trying to figure out what the problem was for these people. The two examples provided consist of having to answer questions about their ethnicity (horrors of horror) and feeling uncomfortable because of all the whiteys.
http://www.portlandmercury.com/feature/2017/08/23/19263182/how-portland-is-driving-away-new-residents-of-color
I suppose if I were in Nigeria, it would feel weird that I was a minority, I get that, but would I expect Nigerians to import white people so I’d feel less conspicuous?
Plus, when I think of Portland, obviously I think of Klan HQ, or of Berlin in the late ’30’s. AmIRight?
Bottom line, it’s a stupid article about people who are exercising their minority butt hurt privilege.
LikeLike
Mark Zuckerberg is the most powerful editor in the world
http://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-damaged-democracy-silicon-valley-will-finish-it-off
Surprised to see the left worried about this..
LikeLike
Imma get right on this.
https://www.leoweekly.com/2017/08/white-people/#.WZyPOFiyClE.twitter
LikeLike
This article is part of a package covering Louisville’s reaction to Charlottesville.
WTF does Louisville need to have a “reaction” to Charlottesville?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Dude is smoking crack. If I’m gonna get property I’m going to sell, it’s going straight to paying debts.
LikeLike
“Make The Money back in some other white privileged way”. I’m convinced a lot of African Americans believe Eddie Murphy’s famous whiteface sketch is a real thing.
http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/white-like-me/n9308?snl=1
LikeLike
McWing:
Bad times in Houston. Give us a heads up and let us know that you are OK.
LikeLike
We’re ok. I live in a ‘burb in NE Houston and we’re on relatively high ground. The only negative thing is we lost power last night and it’s still out.
Unbelievable rain though, really hard to imagine. We have a couple of more days of it so it’s not over yet.
LikeLike
Glad to hear you haven’t been flooded. Being without power sucks, though. We were out for over a week after Sandy. Not fun. I hope you get it back soon and the rain stops.
LikeLike
Glad to hear it. You have a generator?
LikeLike
Yes, I fired it up this morning. I have AC (window hit), a fridge and can charge our phones. My stove is gas so we’re good with food and cooking.
LikeLike
The left these days…
https://twitter.com/ScotsFyre/status/901937238929485827
LikeLiked by 1 person
My boss’s son is a Marine Reservist (E-3) in Dallas, he was activated at 5:30 AM this morning and is headed to Houston.
Kind of shocked.
LikeLike