Morning Report: Fed minutes this afternoon 7/5/17

Posted on July 5, 2017 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2421.5 1.5
Eurostoxx Index 379.4 -1.3
Oil (WTI) 46.3 1.4
US dollar index 87.7 0.1
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.30%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 102.88
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 103.75
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4

Stocks are up small after the long weekend. Bonds and MBS are down.

At 2:00 pm we will get the minutes from the June FOMC meeting. There is the always the possibility of market movement from these things, so just be aware. Here are the things the markets will be looking for.

Construction spending was flat MOM in May and up 4.5% YOY. Private residential construction was up 11% YOY.

Manufacturing continues to accelerate, according the ISM PMI report, which hit a 3 year high. The index level would historically correspond with a 4.6% increase in GDP. The average for the first half of the year would correspond to a 4.1% increase in GDP. Of course manufacturing doesn’t have the share of GDP it used to, but it is a good indication that things are getting better.

Bond yields have been backing up, largely on overseas events. Bonds in Europe are selling off and dragging US yields higher on the relative value trade. The current projections for the upcoming FOMC meetings have become slightly more in favor of rate hikes, but we are still looking at no change at the July meeting, and only a 18% chance of a hike in September. The markets are also looking to the September meeting for more clarity regarding balance sheet reduction.

Home Price appreciation continues to accelerate, as the CoreLogic home price index rose 1.2% MOM and is up 6.6% YOY. Rental inflation rose 3.1%, so the increase in home prices is a bit of a double-edged sword. Those who already own homes are getting the benefit of home price appreciation while the first time homebuyer is squeezed.

Upcoming changes that will affect mortgage credit. Tax liens and civil judgements will be expunged from credit reports, which could amount to a 20 point increase in FICOs for some people. Second, Fannie Mae is increasing the DTI ratio from 45 to 50 in order to take into account high levels of student loan debt.

HUD is recommending that Fannie Mae tweak upward its affordable housing goals for 2018-2020. Most goals are unchanged, but a couple were pushed up slightly.

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |

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19 Responses

  1. Brent Nyitray, on July 5, 2017 at 10:44 am said:

    More proof that we are watching separate movies. The left is all abuzz this morning about how NPR got some conservatives to object to the Declaration of Independence…

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    • Kevin S. Willis, on July 5, 2017 at 1:01 pm said:

      Sheesh. I love how the smartest people in the room routinely demonstrate they have no understanding of how the brain works, or how people work, or how incentives work. You can get people on either side to object to the declaration of independence, or the constitution, or some speech by Abraham Lincoln . . . it’s easy to do. People are selective in their religion and their patriotism.

      Lazy tribalism from NPR. Who woulda thunk it?

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    • jnc4p, on July 5, 2017 at 4:18 pm said:

      Whilst the right is on about CNN doxing threats.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
  2. Brent Nyitray, on July 5, 2017 at 8:07 pm said:

    These signs are all over my neighborhood:

    https://www.etsy.com/listing/508924247/in-this-house-we-believekindness-is?utm_campaign=shopping_us_CityGirlTotes_sfc_osa&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=google&utm_custom1=0&utm_content=13551616&gclid=Cj0KEQjwnPLKBRC-j7nt1b7OlZwBEiQAv8lMLM3aTV7dVdEZWsfsaxbB94x0NFa7YKz7ytsc0lfSXKcaAqSf8P8HAQ

    Basically says: In this house we believe:
    Black Lives Matter
    Women’s rights are human rights
    No human is illegal
    Science is real
    Love is Love
    Kindness is everything.

    I want to create one that says: In this house we believe
    The Constitution exists to restrain government
    Capitalism works
    Taxation is Theft
    Second amendment rights are human rights
    Discrimination is largely a myth
    Local laws should trump Federal ones

    Liked by 1 person

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    • Let the mutherfuker burn!, on July 5, 2017 at 9:06 pm said:

      The sign screams “steal from me, I won’t defend myself.”

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    • Kevin S. Willis, on July 5, 2017 at 10:06 pm said:

      While I don’t quite understand the compulsion to share all the beloved talking points of your favored ideology, and there’s something so pious and holier-than-thou about someone actually putting out a sign like that, I like yours because it says interesting things that indicates it reflects a real individual’s opinion, not corporate-tribal boilerplate.

      With the exception of “Taxation is Theft”. That’s become a cliche. 😉

      “Science is Real”. Who the F doesn’t effing think science is real? “No human is illegal” . . . but some don’t deserve any legal protections, but let’s not go there . . . but illegal immigrants are totally effing illegal, just list someone trespassing on their property would be a trespasser. Why don’t they put up a sign that says they don’t believe it’s possible for somebody to trespass?

      Eh. A way to make some money off the “I’m more liberal than you” competition.

      Kindness is everything? F*ck that. I’m a nice guy. I believe in being civil to everybody, avoiding conflict, resolving things rationally, yada yada. But give me a competent assh*le any day of the week if I need to get something done.

      I’ll take competence over kindness every time. If you’re such a huge douchebag that your douchbaggery interferes with your competence, then you become less competent, so that’s a problem . . . but it’s a competence problem, not a “kindness” problem.

      “Love is love” . . . a hormone-based delusion that we trick ourselves into thinking is something super-special and magic? I thought these folks believed in science and sh*t.

      “Women’s rights are human rights” . . . because if you disagree with me on abortion, that means you think women are subhuman, and you’re a monster. Which is bad, but also kind of good because it makes me soooooo much better than you. But I lack the self-awareness to know that’s what I’m doing. Because I believe in facts and science!

      I personally want a sign for my house that says: “Go Away”. Brief, to the point, easy to read. That’s what a sign is supposed to be. Not a laundry list of things I think I’m morally superior to you on.

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      • markinaustin, on July 6, 2017 at 9:48 am said:

        The liberal mantra boilerplate signs are all over my neighborhood too. So they are not local to the NE.

        I have a problem with Brent’s sign, too. One cannot be for the Constitution and also for local law trumping federal law, as it does not, except where it does!

        I could be OK with “Science is real” as a rebuke to the Jehovah’s Witnesses who come to my door to pooh-pooh evolution.

        Respect is what the bible meant by “love” so I would go with “Respect others as you want to be respected”.

        I like “capitalism” and “constitution” from Brent’s sign. I like closing with “No solicitors” in the spirit KW offered, probably in much bigger and bolder typeset than the rest of the sign. Or perhaps having it at the top.

        NO SOLICITORS

        Respect others as you would want respect
        Science is real
        US Constitution is good
        Capitalism works

        Trespassers will be violated

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    • Kevin S. Willis, on July 5, 2017 at 10:11 pm said:

      I’m okay with the “A Woman’s Place is In The Resistance” thing. I know there is an anti-Trump, possible antifa vibe to that stuff, but it’s Prince Leia . . . so I’m okay with it.

      I really like the “When they GO LOW we GO HIGH” thing. Unless they’re referring to drug use, they’re delusional. “When they GO LOW, we GO LOW DIFFERENTLY” is about as flattering as they should be risking if they want to be honest. I see ’em on the Facebooks and the PlumLines.

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    • jnc4p, on July 6, 2017 at 9:44 am said:

      “I want to create one that says: In this house we believe”

      That would cut into your day trading, drinking, or music playing time.

      Instead of making signs, you actually go vote. Hence why you don’t have to make signs.

      There’s also the ones in Arabic and Spanish declaring that all neighbors are welcome.

      This is nothing more than the usual virtue signaling by the left. It’s not about persuading anyone.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
  3. Brent Nyitray, on July 5, 2017 at 8:12 pm said:

    I also noticed it has become hip among the left to refer to the 4th as “interdependence day” WTF is that?

    Liked by 1 person

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    • Kevin S. Willis, on July 5, 2017 at 9:48 pm said:

      I hadn’t heard that yet. I suppose it’s a gambit to make anybody right of them on the ideological spectrum throw up in their mouth a little.

      They get no points for accuracy. Even America remained interdependent with Britain after the revolution, so theres an argument that “independence” is a misnomer. Extrapolate that and you could argue we’re all dependent on oxygen and rain and the food chain or whatever, I can see the puke-worthy argument for “interdependence day”.

      But I think it’s primarily about deconstructing everything remotely traditional in American culture, soaking it with gasoline, and lighting a match to it.

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    • jnc4p, on July 6, 2017 at 9:46 am said:

      I always liked this piece for it’s honesty:

      “3 reasons the American Revolution was a mistake
      Updated by Dylan Matthews
      Jul 1, 2016, 1:52pm EDT”

      https://www.vox.com/2015/7/2/8884885/american-revolution-mistake

      Liked by 1 person

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      • Kevin S. Willis, on July 6, 2017 at 3:23 pm said:

        Jeeze. That’s an amazing piece. He certainly is woke.

        Generally speaking, when a cause is opposed by the two most vulnerable groups in a society, it’s probably a bad idea. So it is with the cause of American independence.

        But it’s wrong to say they don’t like America or they’re unpatriotic or something.

        Then he makes an argument that we’d be a parliamentary democracy like Canada and the UK, and that would be much better. I understand why, in theory, but I see little evidence of it in practice. As an example of why they are awesome, he gives an example of why I think they suck:

        In the US, activists wanting to put a price on carbon emissions spent years trying to put together a coalition to make it happen, mobilizing sympathetic businesses and philanthropists and attempting to make bipartisan coalition — and they still failed to pass cap and trade, after millions of dollars and man hours. In the UK, the Conservative government decided it wanted a carbon tax. So there was a carbon tax. Just like that. Passing big, necessary legislation — in this case, legislation that’s literally necessary to save the planet — is a whole lot easier with parliaments than with presidential systems.

        … Which is why our system is superior. The current occupant not withstanding. The whole idea––and, in my opinion, the right one––is that the president can’t decide something is super important and just make it happen, and damn the consequences. I’m glad we don’t have cap and trade.

        Government spending in parliamentary countries is about 5 percent of GDP higher, after controlling for other factors, than in presidential countries. If you believe in redistribution, that’s very good news indeed.

        Again, I’m feeling gladder we had a revolution with every point.

        Finally, we’d still likely be a monarchy, under the rule of Elizabeth II, and constitutional monarchy is the best system of government known to man.

        Well, you’re right. He’s honest.

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    • jnc4p, on July 6, 2017 at 4:06 pm said:

      ““interdependence day” WTF is that?”

      More reaction against the very idea of individualism.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
      • markinaustin, on July 6, 2017 at 5:17 pm said:

        What does “woke” mean?

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        • Kevin S. Willis, on July 6, 2017 at 5:25 pm said:

          Means you’re a millennial, or too old to be one but aspire to be, and you agree with mainstream and perhaps even more fringe liberals and leftists about anything (thus, you are “woke to the truth”).

          https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/reliable-source/wp/2017/05/04/rep-maxine-waters-at-emilys-list-gala-stay-woke/?utm_term=.919f4c4f9eaa

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        • markinaustin, on July 6, 2017 at 10:23 pm said:

          I don’t know anyone who ever used the word “woke” in that way. But thanks.

          “Interdependence Day” substituted for Independence Day is annoying because it turns all our history on its head, as if it never happened.

          Were the single word “interdependence” used correctly it could refer to that part of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations that dealt with specialization of nations in world trade.

          It could have referred to social work stuff I heard in marriage counseling many years ago about how people want to communicate with other people. Sort of an acute insight into the obvious, after which I had to memorize over 200 words that described feelings from “amused” to “zany”. I had entered counseling apparently bereft of words for my feelings although I had named seven when I was first asked: happy, sad, angry, scared, sleepy, hungry, and horny. Thought a bit and because the session felt like chalk scratching on a blackboard, I blurted out “nervous”. Eight feelings.

          I guess “Interdependence Day” sounds to me like chalk scratching on a blackboard.

          Liked by 1 person

        • jnc4p, on July 7, 2017 at 11:34 am said:

          “because it turns all our history on its head, as if it never happened.”

          That’s the goal.

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      • Kevin S. Willis, on July 6, 2017 at 5:29 pm said:

        “More reaction against the very idea of individualism.”

        Which equates to: “I want you to do things for me, I don’t want to have to work for stuff, and I want everything to be the way I want it, because everything I want from the world is an objective good and if you don’t agree, you’re part of the problem.”

        The reaction against the idea of individualism is just a flip-side selfishness, one far more global in reach than individualism, which generally is “I got mine, you get your own”. It’s more of a: “I don’t want you to have anything I don’t feel people should have.”

        What is the practical distinction between interdependence and envy? Discuss. 😉

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Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.