Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P Futures | 2344.5 | 4.5 |
Eurostoxx Index | 376.0 | -1.3 |
Oil (WTI) | 47.5 | -0.7 |
US dollar index | 90.0 | |
10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.41% | |
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 102.06 | |
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 103.32 | |
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.17 |
Stocks are higher this morning after durable goods orders came in strong. Bonds and MBS are flat
We have a lot of Fed-speak today with 5 speakers, mainly in the morning.
Durable Goods orders rose 1.7% last month versus a 1.5% expectation. Aircraft orders drove the increase. Ex-transportation they rose 0.4%. The only disappointing part was capital goods orders, which fell 0.1% versus expectations of a 0.1% gain. Capital Goods orders is a proxy for business capital investment, and this number shows that while business may be more optimistic for the future, they aren’t putting their money where their mouth is quite yet.
Donald Trump challenged the GOP to either pass health care reform today or to forget it. Health care reform is being fought by both Democrats (who oppose any cuts whatsoever) and the GOP Freedom caucus (who oppose the program on general principles). Here are some of the proposed amendments and negotiation points. Health care reform is a critical piece of his planned infrastructure spending plan, so if that goes, then it will be much smaller than advertised and tax reform will probably have to be revenue-neutral. Note that revenue-neutral tax reform could still do a lot for the economy just by getting rid of the distortions caused by the tax code. At the margin, the failure to pass health care reform should make the Fed slightly less hawkish.
Regardless of the state of health care reform, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin says tax reform will get done by the August recess.
Investor optimism is at a 16 year high, according to Wells Fargo. Interestingly, this is not based on taxes, as more people expect their taxes to increase (39%) than decrease (29%). Investors are also sanguine about the Fed’s proposed interest rate hikes, with equal percentages thinking they will be good, bad, or have no effect. 60% say now is a good time to invest, which is the highest number since 2011, when Wells started tracking that number. Note that extremely high investor sentiment can be a contrary indicator, however betting on that is usually a losing trade.
Suburbs and exurbs are again out-growing cities and their near suburbs, according to new Census data. This trend was upended during the post-bubble years as young Millennials stayed in the city.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
Even more from the you-can’t-parody-feminists files: “Why Guys Get Turned on When You Orgasm—and Why That’s a Bad Thing.”
http://www.cosmopolitan.com/sex-love/a9169991/why-guys-love-female-orgasms/
It’s not enough that men are already having more orgasms than women. To make matters worse, a new study published in the Journal of Sex Research found — aside from deriving pleasure from their own orgasms, obviously — men also derive a specific sort of masculine pleasure from making female partners orgasm. The researchers in the study, Sara Chadwick and Sari van Anders, refer to this incredibly predictable phenomenon as a “masculinity achievement.”…
In a separate statement from Chadwick and van Anders, they explained why it’s a bad thing for men to gain masculinity points for bringing female partners to orgasm. “One reason is that it might pressure some heterosexual men to feel like they have to ‘give’ women orgasms, as if orgasm is something men pulled out of a hat and presented to women,” they wrote. “This ties into cultural ideas of women as passive recipients of whatever men give them.”
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I know one like that who literally resents her own heterosexuality. She refers to dating as “sleeping with the enemy” and wishes she was attracted to women instead.
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jnc:
She refers to dating as “sleeping with the enemy”…
I’ll bet the angry sex is just awesome.
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I’d still hit it.
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It is amusing too that you are a Cosmo reader.
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lol…Actually I got the link from the Federalist.
http://thefederalist.com/2017/03/24/cosmopolitan-hates-women-orgasm-men-enjoy/
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This joke was considered very sexist at the time, I guess it’s kosher now,
Question to a guy: How do you bring a woman to orgasm during sex?
Guy’s response: Who cares?
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I remember it well.
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It’s a phase…
http://www.theonion.com/article/lesbian-identity-ends-abruptly-mid-junior-year-1505
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No, she’s in her thirties and a librarian.
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“the big Menstruation Day rally.”
That really should be a thing.
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That was funny.
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Ace just wrote the longest post I have seen him write in a very long time….on the stupid Cosmo orgasm story. And gives us WAY too much information.
http://ace.mu.nu/archives/369002.php
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You guys have too much time on your hands
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Good piece:
“How Paul Ryan played Donald Trump
Sometimes the swamp drains you.
Updated by Ezra Klein
Mar 24, 2017, 8:10am EDT”
http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/3/24/15039664/paul-ryan-donald-trump-ahca
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Because everything is about identity politics for the left:
http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/3/24/15028396/march-for-science-diversity
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I wonder what they consider a minority? Asians and Indians are highly represented in science. Or are they the wrong kind of minority?
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“If we exclude most of the minorities that are represented in the sciences, minorities are hugely under-represented.”
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“Or are they the wrong kind of minority?”
Clearly.
Congrats. They are honorary white people now. I.e. non-victims.
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NoVA, did you think that Wyden-Bennett was a better idea than ACA? It was certainly simpler and (I think) cheaper.
I get that you might, in libertarian principle, want at least the federal government out of health care. But as a professional lobbyist, you must have analyzed W-B. And as a choice between two, I want to know your professional assessment of it against the ACA.
I could only tell that it was a 15-20 times shorter bill, easier to read, and not full of contradictions. But would it have worked better/cheaper than what Baucus gave us?
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I think we both were in favor of it at the time, but NoVA can speak for himself.
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Thanks, Joe.
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I’d like them to bring it back, but they can’t do it through reconciliation, even if they wanted to.
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Hi mark. Been on the road this week.
Yes. Personally I like that model more than the ACA. I’ll write more later.
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Thanks, NoVA. I really look forward to it.
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Good take I think:
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Trump: Democrats own Obamacare 100%.
Damn straight.
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Destroying insurance markets. Driving costs ever higher. Raising taxes. Violating religious liberty. Empowering unelected bureaucrats. Encouraging yet more government dependency.
No wonder the Dems are so proud!
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I think we can all agree that that other all Democratic legislation, the Fugitive Slave Act, was worse.
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He’s not giving up
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Would it be productive for the players [insurance, health care professions, hospitals, drug companies] to get on one page and back W-B as a more cost effective and delivery system effective approach, and to my recollection less federally dominated approach, and sell the leadership [of both parties] on it?
It was a short enough bill [60-70 pp. in the iterations I recall reading] that Congresspersons could actually read it.
They could call it TrumpCare or RyanCare. I couldn’t care less. Then Rs could honestly say they repealed and replaced ObamaCare, and even get some bipartisan support for it.
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My two favorite titled bills in the now closed hopper of the TX Lege:
1] Relating to the taking of certain feral hogs and coyotes using a hot air balloon
2] Relating to the regulation of men’s health and safety; creating a civil penalty for unregulated masturbatory emissions
George, does #2 suggest to you that someone in the Lege thinks we now have regulated masturbatory emissions?
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#2 is supposed to be snark, but i guess only feminists get whatever point she is trying to make.
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Silly you
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I think at this point the relevant players are more focused on figuring out how to maximize their returns out of the current system than worried about reform.
There probably won’t be another opportunity to actually reform health insurance/care for 10 plus years.
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What happens when it dawns on Trump that the job of being President isn’t fun?
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He quits.
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The blind spots in this article are so funny. And how come people treat Norm Ornstein as some sort of sage non-political expert? The dude is just another left wing hack.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-great-divide-politics-in-the-age-of-trump/?ftag=CNM-00-10aab8c&linkId=35861188
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This is basically the same argument Scott Adams makes about watching two different movies:
“Increasingly, we Americans occupy alternate universes.
President Trump: “To be honest, I inherited a mess! It’s a mess!”
Stephen Colbert: “No, you inherited a fortune; we elected a mess.”
There is very little common ground left … only battling perceptions of reality.”
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Speaking of Ornstein:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/03/rewriting-the-rules-of-presidential-succession/520860/
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