Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P Futures | 2338.5 | -7.0 |
Eurostoxx Index | 368.5 | -1.6 |
Oil (WTI) | 53.1 | -0.3 |
US dollar index | 910.9 | 0.1 |
10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.41% | |
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 102.1 | |
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 103.2 | |
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4.11 |
Stocks are lower this morning on overseas weakness. Bonds and MBS are up.
The index of leading economic indicators rose 0.6%, stronger than expected.
Household debt increased in the fourth quarter, as growth in non-mortgage debt outpaced growth in mortgage debt. The 4th quarter saw $617 billion in newly originated mortgages, the highest level since Q32007. Auto loans and student loans saw an uptick in 90 day delinquencies, while credit cards and mortgages saw an improvement. Remember, this is only the debt side of the equation – both incomes and asset prices (especially housing) are higher than they were in 2007.
Housing affordability remains about in line with pre-crisis levels, according to the NAHB. As of the end of the year, approximately 59.9% of all homes were affordable to a borrower with the median income. You can see the big swing in affordability between the boom and bust years. Tight inventory is being offset by (still) low mortgage rates. California remains the biggest issue regarding affordability. In the San Francisco MSA, just 7.8% of the homes sold were affordable to people earning the median income of $104,700.
The median home price increased 7% in January to $261,100, according to Redfin. Home sales were up 5.6% compared to January 2016, which shows that the uptick in rates hasn’t affected the purchase market. Inventory is down 12% YOY, and listings have dropped 5.1%. 18% of homes sold above list price, and the average sales to list ratio was 93.7%. Days on market fell 7 days YOY to 59.
Despite all the missteps of the initial days of the Trump administration, stocks are partying like it is 1999. This certainly has the political class (and the business press) scratching their heads. First, while the first 100 days of the Official U.S. Airing of The Grievances may seem dramatic, it doesn’t mean much for business (except for some consumer product companies and retailers who suffer from ideologically-driven boycotts). Second, for all the talk in the business press of “uncertainty,” investors are sensing (correctly, I think) that gridlock is going to rule the day in DC. Nothing is more “certain” than gridlock, and if regulations get eased a bit, that is good for business. Gridlock also means the Fed has some room to go slower. At the end of the day, earnings drive the stock market, not the histrionics in Washington and the media.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
Good quote from Andrew Sullivan. I need to resist this temptation:
“After a while, you’re not so much arguing for conservatism as against leftism, and eventually the issues fade and only the hate remains.”
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/02/andrew-sullivan-the-white-house-mole.html
I think it does encapsulate the difference between the Republican party and conservative movement of today vs the 1970’s and 1980’s.
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He thinks the annoying, smug insufferable left only exists on campus. I cannot think of a place it doesn’t exist…
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I’d say it reaches it’s most insufferable form on campus.
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” I need to resist this temptation:”
My plan is to get a better hobby
i’ve been neglecting my homebrewing. so that’s going to be a bigger priority.
and my son and I are going to attempt to make a lego stop-motion animation movie. and if nothing else, that’s time consuming.
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Good piece for those who haven’t seen it already.
“Why Donald Trump Really Is a Populist
Feb 16, 2017 10:45 AM EST
By Francis Wilkinson”
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-16/why-donald-trump-really-is-a-populist
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Good piece on the cost of hysteria:
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/01/flint-we-are-laying-tragedy-top-tragedy-top-tragedy
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This comment from the article made me laugh,
“tpx
22 days ago
Some older middle aged white guy in California, not to mention all his peers who are engineers, university professors, writers, etc. were all exposed to lead most of their childhoods if they were raised in America. All the white American heroes of the latter half of the 20th century were exposed to lead. That might partly explain their abuse of national power, and immoral use of military power, but it did not prevent them from exercising an intellect to learn, think, and solve other complex problems. The children of Flint need a New Black Panther Party to teach them whatever defects they may have encountered environmentally will not prevent them from attaining the same level of achievements of the upper classes that have oppressed them.
The child in the article who recognizes his exposure to lead does have consequences already demonstrates his cognitive abilities; ones the white elites in his state cannot recognize, and whose inability to accept moral responsibility for failing Flint’s children is a result of their own mental disabilities, possibly caused by lead exposure as children, when lead was being exhausted into the atmosphere at a very high rate. The failure to teach the children of Flint they will not be any less debilitated from lead than the elites who exposed them to it, should be added to the list of American tragedies they will have to face.”
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https://twitter.com/TPCarney/status/832764191362605057
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Good read.
https://bc.marfeel.com/amp/www.nationalreview.com/article/445045/general-michael-flynn-national-security-adviser-fbi-investigation-phone-call-russian-ambassador?utm_source=PANTHEON_STRIPPED&utm_medium=PANTHEON_STRIPPED
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Fun read:
https://mises.org/blog/great-gatsby-and-fed
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“Unfortunately, Mr. McCain, like Mr. Bush, sees the world as divided into friends (like Georgia) and adversaries (like Russia). He proposed kicking Russia out of the Group of 8 industrialized nations even before the invasion of Georgia. We have no sympathy for Moscow’s bullying, but we also have no desire to replay the cold war. The United States must find a way to constrain the Russians’ worst impulses, while preserving the ability to work with them on arms control and other vital initiatives.”
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2008/10/24/opinion/24fri1.html?referer=
“The severity of this issue, the gravity of it, is so consequential because if you succeed in corrupting an election, then you’ve destroyed the foundation of democracy,” he told me later. “So I view it with the utmost seriousness. I view it more seriously than a physical attack. I view it more seriously than Orlando, or San Bernardino. As tragic as that was, the far-reaching consequences of an election hack are certainly far in excess of a single terrorist attack.”
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/02/john-mccain-takes-on-donald-trump.html?mid=nymag_press
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https://twitter.com/FoolishReporter/status/833194794306334720
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It is kind of surreal watching the left wring their hands over the Russians and their influence our politics…
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That the rubes believe that there was vote hacking is the funny part.
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I don’t think Rand Paul is over McCain’s insults during his filibuster.
“He would bankrupt the nation. We’re very lucky John McCain’s not in charge, because I think we’d be in perpetual war,” Paul added.
http://thehill.com/policy/international/320290-rand-paul-were-very-lucky-john-mccains-not-in-charge
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He’s not wrong though.
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No he’s not. The media gloss over a lot of what he and Lyndsey Graham believe, namely frequent US invasions of countries.
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Apparently Gates and Panetta are in lockstep that these leaks are worthy of investigation. They are, IIRC, the only two men who have served both as CIA director and SecDef, and both are considered to be able to deal outside partisan politics as professional intelligence officers.
Panetta says that professional intelligence agents don’t leak, but they are duty bound to report to the WH and to their oversight committees in the legislature. Leaks historically proceed from there. The other interesting thing he offered on MTP without any hesitation was that he could not imagine intelligence being withheld from DJT or any POTUS. When Tapper[?][my wife says I have the wrong guy there] asked him if intelligence was incriminating of the POTUS did the agencies have to tell him, he answered “yes”. It is not for intelligence agencies to make decisions on policy, he said, but to gather intelligence and discern its potential. If it is potentially important, it must be shared with the WH and the Congressional oversight committees.
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Not buying the theory that rank-and-file obama loyalist bureaucrats are in open revolt against Trump and are doing anything possible to take him down?
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Both can be true. They aren’t mutually exclusive.
If the Trump/Russia thing really does go to an outside investigation, Gates and Panetta would probably be the two people I would like to see chair it.
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Gates and Panetta would probably be the two people I would like to see chair it.
The best we could do. Agreed.
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You agree with Trump then? That no itelligence is being withheld?
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George, I am guessing that no intelligence is being withheld. However, DJT has dispensed with daily briefings, so the contact point probably is through Kelly [I would not be surprised if Bannon is NOT the contact point]. It probably WAS through Flynn.
Brent, if you mean that what was conveyed by intelligence officers to the BHO WH got leaked by that WH that would not be inconsistent with Panetta’s hunch. Both Panetta and Gates have decried the use of unvetted contractors, of course, as a separate issue.
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mark:
Brent, if you mean that what was conveyed by intelligence officers to the BHO WH got leaked by that WH that would not be inconsistent with Panetta’s hunch.
Most of the news stories I have seen strongly imply that the leaks are coming from inside the intelligence agencies, not from BHO political operatives.
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There are still Obama political appointees in the government as Trump continues to staff up.
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Obama dispensed with them as well.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/opinions/obamas-hypocrisy-on-intelligence-briefings/2016/12/19/8b1fbed0-c5f4-11e6-bf4b-2c064d32a4bf_story.html?client=safari
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Heh.
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This is probably about as good of a pick for National Security Advisor as Trump could have made:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H._R._McMaster
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This is probably about as good of a pick for National Security Advisor as Trump could have made
I think a good pick for anyone. I have read after the SEAL turned him down that the NSA can now pick his own staff, and I hope that becomes operational for Rex, Mattis, and Kelly, as well. A core of pros can keep us out of big trouble. Not that it is a sure thing, but it beats the alternative.
Scott – Panetta was referring to those reports when he said that in his experience the leaks come after the intel reports to the political branches. In any case, he wants the leaks hunted down.
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So. No more love for Milo, eh?
Next time maybe you’ll believe me when I tell you someone’s an asshole.
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Whether he is or is not an asshole doesn’t change the merits of his arguments.
But it does look like that there’s still one subject that’s sufficiently beyond the pale to get him shunned.
Still, live by outrage, die by outrage. Playing the victim card here really doesn’t suit him.
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What’s going on with Milo?
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/02/20/cpac-sticks-with-yiannopoulos-as-critics-highlight-his-comments-about-underage-sex/
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Seems more surprising that CPAC would have invited him to speak in the first place than that they would have rescinded the invite. Were they completely clueless about what kind of a provocateur he is?
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No, but much like Republicans who decided to sign on with Trump, they thought that they could use it to their own ends without having to deal with the blow back.
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Sorry, but yes, his being an asshole DOES mean that his argument is crap. Being a pedophile, and one who uses the Catholic church’s pedophilia as an excuse, means that his opinion is worthless.
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Mich:
Being a pedophile, and one who uses the Catholic church’s pedophilia as an excuse, means that his opinion is worthless.
Are you saying Milo is a pedophile? I have not seen that info. Where are you getting that?
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Do I have to do all your research today?
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2017/feb/21/milo-yiannopoulos-book-deal-cancelled-outrage-child-abuse-comments
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He said in a Facebook posting that “boy” referred to younger men that I took to mean 16-17 years old in sexual relationships with older men of means as a way to help gay “boys” gain some measure of independence due to (often?) being cut from their families due to being homo.
Sounded like rationalization to me though, and I think you agree.
We both know how those gays can be, amIright?
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Mich:
Do I have to do all your research today?
And Milo is the asshole? Jeez.
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The man is an asshole and a pedophile.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-02-21/milo-yiannopoulos-book-deal-cancelled/8289142
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Edit: corked by J!
Ok, saw the “13 year old” reference in this one. I didn’t listen to the podcast and I wouldn’t trust second hand reporting on it.
In his Facebook posting he also distinguishes between pre and post pubescence as the pedophilia dividing line (I’m paraphrasing). As I said before, and I’m sensing you agree, that his distinctions are rationalization that homos make so they can enjoy homo sex with young men without the guilt or societal aprobation.
What should the age of sexual consent be, in your opinion?
I had sex with a 17 year old when I was eighteen and at nineteen I lusted after but was unsuccessful in bedding a different 17 year old. I happily would have though.
Is a 17 year old engaging in sex with a 13 year old molesting that 13 year old?
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Troll:
Yiannopoulos specifically referred to relationships between 13-year-old boys and older men.
Defend him? Really??
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I did not see that. I know he was molested by a priest (or claimed to be, and he jokes about it. I didn’t see the reference in the articles you linked. I’ll reread them.
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“Sorry, but yes, his being an asshole DOES mean that his argument is crap.”
That’s pretty much the definition of ad hominem, so there’s no point in going further with this.
“Defend him? Really??”
It’s not defending him to point out that the argument being used to condemn him is crap. But this is how everyone who doesn’t call Trump Hitler ends up being labeled a Trump supporter.
So be it. I’ll go with the truth any day over buying into BS just because it’s politically correct.
Milo isn’t a pedophile. But he’s trying to play the victim card to avoid having to take full responsibility for his position on the subject and it’s going to backfire because it basically undermines his entire raison d’être.
Based on the piece, Milo defines actual pedophilia more narrowly than his opponents and also conflates it with the age of consent issue which is related, but separate.
He did have an ironic quip in his Facebook posts that apparently calling him a white supremacist wasn’t enough to put him beyond the pale so the ante had to be upped.
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“Are you saying Milo is a pedophile? I have not seen that info. Where are you getting that?”
Scott, the more reasonable characterization is that Milo was defending pedophilia by arguing that 13 year olds were capable of giving consent in a relationship with a much older adult. He then argued over the definition of actual pedophilia as a psychiatric disorder.
He used himself as an example of the younger person and then played the victim card when challenged on it. I.e. his victimhood gave him special standing to make the argument.
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jnc:
Milo isn’t a pedophile….the more reasonable characterization is that Milo was defending pedophilia by arguing that 13 year olds were capable of giving consent in a relationship with a much older adult. He then argued over the definition of actual pedophilia as a psychiatric disorder.
Thanks…that was my understanding too, after reading a couple of articles last night. It seems to me that there is much greater evidence that Milo is an asshole than that he is a pedophile.
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“his being an asshole DOES mean that his argument is crap”
but that would mean all mine and, definitely, all of Scott’s arguments are crap.
in fact, I think only Mark would be left.
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nova:
but that would mean all mine and, definitely, all of Scott’s arguments are crap.
Genuine lol.
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I know for sure that I’m out under that standard.
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Nah. You guys can be annoying; Milo is certifiably an ass.
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You and Scott agree:
“It seems to me that there is much greater evidence that Milo is an asshole “
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jnc;
You and Scott agree:
Milo works miracles!
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yes — live boy, dead girl rule.
i’m sure about the first part. the second part is obviously a lie. but it’s there for tradition.
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I have always considered him to be more of a performance artist than a pundit.
Coming from the right is the only way to shock anymore. Art has been dominated by flabby leftism for 50 years now.
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Defend him as a “performance artist”. A pedophile. Really.
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who is defending him? not me.. BTW, Didn’t Salon just run some piece of click-bait defending pedophilia?
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I dunno–I never read Salon. 😃
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Supposedly the voice of the modern left…
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That’s what I get for not being “modern”.
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It’s this piece.
https://web.archive.org/web/20151219064006/http://www.salon.com/2015/09/21/im_a_pedophile_but_not_a_monster
Ironically, Milo called it out and condemned it back in September 2015.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/09/21/heres-why-the-progressive-left-keeps-sticking-up-for-pedophiles/
Salon actually purged all of it from their site last night after Milo brought it up.
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Also, just in case it isn’t obvious, I could never defend pedophilia.
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Hmm. Studying economics makes you selfish. Hmm.
I
Shall
Say
Nothing.
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Mich:
Studying economics makes you selfish.
Are you quoting someone?
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http://www.npr.org/2017/02/21/516375434/does-studying-economics-make-you-selfish
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://evonomics.com/more-evidence-that-learning-economics-makes-you-selfish/&ved=0ahUKEwin9O7LvKHSAhUEeSYKHRvOBtEQFggdMAE&usg=AFQjCNHmLN1cVecgaPLsBcnjBcxtzgpbsg
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I should hope so, rational self-interest is the only proper way to govern oneself.
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Correlation vs. causation…
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I’m not saying anything
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Certainly economics teaches you to put your hand on your wallet and run screaming whenever a progressive starts talking about “fairness.”
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Homer: So, Mr. Burns is gonna make us all go on a stupid corporate retreat up in the mountains to learn about teamwork. Which means we’ll have to cancel our plans to hang around here.
Bart: Teamwork is overrated.
Homer: Huh?
Bart: Think about it. I mean, what team was Babe Ruth on? Who knows.
Lisa and Marge: Yankees.
Bart: Sharing is a bunch of bull, too. And helping others. And what’s all this crap I’ve been hearing about tolerance?
Homer: Hmm. Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter. But I think we have to go to the retreat anyway.
S8E12
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“I
Shall
Say
Nothing.”
And yet you did. That’s fine. I don’t apologize for it at all.
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Nope. You guys all jumped in.
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I was a history major anyway. Did take some econ courses though. Presumably enough to corrupt me.
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I was an econ major.
Efficiency > Equality.
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I was an econ major too. My takeaway…
Hate > Love
What’s particularly interesting to me is that the economics being taught at most schools is of the soft left variety, not the hard-core, laissez faire economics most associated (by the left) with “unfairness”, “greed” and the political right.
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What’s particularly interesting to me is that the economics being taught at most schools is of the soft left variety, not the hard-core, laissez faire economics most associated (by the left) with “unfairness”, “greed” and the political right.
Which is why dudes like Krugman now believe the laws of supply and demand are suspended in the labor market.
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I was talking to an econ major from Tufts just a week or so ago. She’d never even heard of Hayek, von Mises, Bastiat, or the Austrian school. Milton Friedman had, at least, been mentioned at some point.
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In 1962 it was Marshall, Friedman, and Keynes, with attempted syntheses of the three by then contemporary economists. Hayek was well known but little taught, except as a counter-thinker. The Austrian school was seen as denying the centrality of the competitive mechanism as an efficient production and distribution machine that had to be kept in operation by ease of market entry and anti-trust mechanisms and free trade.
Everything got tested against Marshall’s seminal work in marginal utility and what we then called “price theory”, not “microeconomics”.
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If you can believe it, I went to journalism school.
but i did take macro and micro. from the only conservative within 100 miles of campus, i’m sure.
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noav:
If you can believe it, I went to journalism school.
Did they teach you how to best spread fake news?
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Do they worship Walter Lippman and his socialist objectivity?
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