Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P Futures | 2173.8 | 1.0 |
Eurostoxx Index | 338.3 | -0.2 |
Oil (WTI) | 46.1 | 0.5 |
US dollar index | 90.8 | 0.2 |
10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.25% | |
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103 | |
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 104 | |
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 4 |
Stocks are flattish on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down small.
Janet Yellen is speaking on Capitol Hill this morning. Her prepared statement is here. She said that job growth has been lower than last year but still above forecasts. They believe the labor market has further room to run. She pointed out that economic growth has improved from its sluggish start of the year and inflation remains tame. Nothing in the statement would change the forecast for a 25 basis point hike next month.
Speaking of inflation, the consumer price index rose 0.4% in October, in line with forecasts. Ex-food and energy, it rose 0.1% and is up 2.1% YOY.
The NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, a measure of homebuilder sentiment was flat at 63, and is still well above neutral.
Housing starts rose to 1.323 million. This is an increase of 23% YOY, which shows the housing market may finally be getting some traction at long last. This is a 9-year high. Remember, “normalcy” is closer to 1.5 million units, so we still have a lot of room for growth. Building Permits were up 4.6% YOY to 1.23 million.
Initial Jobless Claims fell to 235k last week, which is the lowest level since early 1973, just after the Vietnam War draft ended. Employers continue to hang onto their workers.
House prices increased 7% in October, according to RedFin. Inventory dropped by 8.6% YOY, which is the 13th consecutive monthly drop. Homes stayed on the market an average of 49 days, a drop of 5 days from a year earlier. 21% of all homes were under contract within two weeks, and 20% sold for more than their asking price.
Average FICOs for closed loans dropped somewhat in October to 730 from 731, according to Ellie Mae. Purchases accounted for 53% and refis accounted for 47%.Time to close was steady at 48 days. ARMS slipped to 4% of all loans, however as rates increase they will undoubtedly become more popular at some point.
Consumer comfort increased last week, according to Bloomberg.
Democrats named Chuck Schumer Senate Minority Leader yesterday. As a practical matter, he comes from NY so he should be at least somewhat sympathetic to the financial sector, which could go a long way in helping fix some of the issues with Dodd-Frank.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
Frist!
Lots of people on the left unhappy with the Chuck Schumer appointment. It should have been Bernie! Or someone they liked better, instead of someone who was so instrumental in raising money for Democrats. Because filthy lucre!
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God bless America and the Old Gray Lady.
This is a must read from the NYT.
I have been searching for the article on what Nixon could teach the Democrats about losing and I can’t find it anywhere.
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Interesting piece.
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This guy is dropping so many truth bombs it’s scary.
This is what I’m saying:
The huge number of links he has to people calling Trump “openly racist” with no documentation is impressive, too. Worth the read for that.
Mainstream press? Anything? Bueller?
Boom! That truth bomb destroyed 100 city blocks!
I think I’m in love. And this:
This whole piece is a barrage of logic completely missed by what seems to be a majority of people on the left, amongst the Democrats, and in the media who reportedly love facts and logic (so much so that “facts have a liberal bias”) yet can’t put two-and-two together as quickly and simply as this guy, who thinks Trump is awful and did not support him, managed to do.
Did I say I was in love? Because I totally am. He’s wielding Occam’s razor like a broadsword. I love this dude.
And . . . all you need to know about Politifact:
Truth grenade:
I think I’ve literally found my soul-mate. He cited furniture-related deaths!
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Not “interesting”. Brilliant. This is a must read and spread.
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Scott Adams picked it up:
http://blog.dilbert.com/post/153301874416/reprogram-an-anti-trumper-with-this-article
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I hope Kelly Ann Conway stays on in the administration. She is a useful voice of reason:
Trump is going to cause the establishment fits:
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“Trump is going to cause the establishment fits:”
And the media and pundit-class will not be able to fathom why a majority of the American people either think it’s great, or at least non-objectionable. Just doing things, off the cuff? What the heck?
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The “Trump is unacceptable” performance art on the part of Democrats and progressives is going to start to die once he comes out with foreign leaders and they both give the usual praising of each other.
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I think they are going to make a heroic effort to extend it far beyond it’s normal shelf-life. How successful they will be . . . that, I think, remains to be seen. I suspect: “Not very.”
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Nope, only inclement weather will stop it.
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I think the media will start to get bored of it and it will become background noise.
Sort of like OWS.
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Also from McWing’s brilliant link, there’s this:
I am not the only one, I take it, that thinks the press is giving the KKK and Stormfront much more ink than they deserve. Much, much more ink. In their noble quest to delegitimize Trump, they are elevating White Nationalism, Stormfront, and the KKK. Giving them more attention than they have had in years. They are potentially allowing the credit that almost half the country apparently gives Trump to rub off on these largely abhorrent collections of mentally ill people just capable enough to organize, pull on white sheets, and type out angry screeds on the Internet.
I don’t see that a positive. Given the apparent results of giving Trump constant coverage in the primaries and general election, do they really believe paying this much attention to the KKK, Stormfront, and David Duke is a good idea?
Apparently they do. I can promise them, it’s not. I hope Trump moves to quickly make some decisions that will anger the KKK and white nationalists and so on, as when they start saying negative things about Trump the press will immediately stop giving them any attention.
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Instructions for Democrats on how to keep losing:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/the_democrats_are_already_screwing_up_the_trump_resistance.html
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You guys can’t play identity politics. Only WE can play identity politics..
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Gentlemen! You cant fight in here, this is the War Room!
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I love Cons Frapped reply that you were trying to suggest that the article was saying it was wrong to call out Trump as racist. Not sure where he got that.
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He just lies about everything when he’s not spamming the board from his sock puppets.
The piece couldn’t be more clear as to it’s premise:
“The Democrats Are Screwing Up the Resistance to Donald Trump”
I’m his nemesis, hence why he has to follow me around and top post about all of my comments like a little yipping dog since I won’t bother to engage him at all anymore.
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jnc:
I read this piece the other day on this recess appointment possibility. It says that:
Under the Constitution and Supreme Court precedent, a president may make a recess appointment – including one to the Supreme Court – but only if the Senate is in a recess that lasts at least ten days.
Is that not correct?
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/11/obama_still_might_be_able_to_put_merrick_garland_on_the_supreme_court.html
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I notice he never mentions how he wanted people to vote for Trump in the primaries and how he couldn’t wait for Trump to be the Republican nominee because he’d lose in a landslide. He was super excited about Trump winning the Republican nomination. He agitated for it.
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That’s for recesses while Congress is in session. Once it adjourns, that’s not operative.
So basically assuming that they maintain perpetual pro-forma sessions, there’s one brief period in the year when Congress adjourns that recess appointments can be made.
The ten days thing is just something Breyer made up as a guideline.
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He hasn’t even taken office and they are bound and determined to make sure he gets 4 more years!
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Scott asked me to see if I really thought there was equivalence between the liberal media’s blanket characterizations of those who don’t vote Democrat and conservative blanket characterizations of Democrats/liberals/progressives.
Well, based on Scott’s definitions, there apparently are a lot more accusations of “racism”, etc., then there are of “tree hugger”, or “takers”, or “international conspiracists” who “hate America”. However, there is a lot of “baby killers” talk floated by the single issue folks,
Conservative mainstream, especially: Weekly Standard and NRO and WSJ are much more circumspect than NYT and WaPo.
My criticism of DJT remains that he is a con artist with a checkered career of broken promises and contracts, with no business being POTUS. Nevertheless, he will become our and my POTUS, so I damned well hope he is a quick study and keeps some smart folks around him who aren’t trying to manipulate him at every turn. Also, in remembrance of Lawrence Welk as presented by Stan Freberg, “Somebody turn off the Twitter Machine.”
The Freberg spoof is apparently still copyright protected.
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Mark:
However, there is a lot of “baby killers” talk floated by the single issue folks,
It is probably true that some pro-life organizations promote that characterization. But is it really at all comparable to the “war on women” narrative that is so prevalent among the pro-choice left?
National Right to Life is the biggest and most prominent right to life organization in the nation. Are there many (or any?) examples of it or its officials demonizing pro-choice advocates as “baby killers”?
Planned Parenthood, on the other hand, one of the biggest advocates for legal abortion, routinely demonizes the pro-life movement as a “war on women”. Google “planned parenthood war on women” and the very first return is an art show being promoted by Planned Parenthood called, you guessed it, War on Women.
Or how about NARAL, the other high profile pro-choice organization in the US. Their website is saturated with references to a “war on women”.
The “war on women” is one of former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s favorite talking points. How many times has the phrase “baby killer” been uttered by current Speaker of the House Paul Ryan? Or, really, any other high profile R politician? Even Trump, who is just the sort of person I would expect to use that kind of rhetoric?
My point is not that there are no examples of this kind of thing on the right, but rather that the left has basically made an institutional practice of it, on issue after issue, from top to bottom. It seems to me that the left spends far more time trying to write its political opposition out of the realm of acceptable and respectable opinion (narrowing the Overton window, as Milo mentioned) than does the right, and it doesn’t strike me as a close enough call to even be debatable.
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This is a case where who says what gets mixed up. Have any pro-life politicians referred to the pro-choice side as “baby killers”? Knowing politicians, probably a few, but very few. More likely “infanticide” but likely not many of them. Individuals can say and do anything, but there’s no messaging on the pro-life side that says “go call them baby-killers”, but there’s no sign they believe that’s effective messaging.
wnd.com use the term, as do a lot of (for lack of a better term) “alt right” sites, presumably because they preach to the choir. It’s not effective messaging.
I googled National Right to Life and “baby killers” and could only find references condemning abortion clinic shootings, or any murder done in the name of anti-abortion. Googling politicians and “baby killers” could probably accomplish the same.
There are plenty of individual advocates and “conservative voices” that seem to use the term, or the direct concept, calling abortion doctors murderers or referring to abortion as infanticide. It may be accurate from their point of view, but easily as inflammatory as the “war on women” rhetoric.
That clearly doesn’t work, given the numbers of women that voted for Trump.
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Found one politicians who has used the term “baby killer” in a public way, and he had to admit to it and apologize.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/03/22/stupak-called-baby-killer-house-floor.html
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Anyone think Obama will recess appoint Merrick Garland to SCOTUS?
https://newrepublic.com/article/138787/obama-can-put-merrick-garland-supreme-court
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it would make the peanut gallery’s day, that’s for sure..
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Once again, I’d give a lot to see him do it.
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If I were him, I’d totally do it. He may be more cautious than I.
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jnc:
Anyone think Obama will recess appoint Merrick Garland to SCOTUS?
if McConnell gives him the chance, yes.
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It’s not on McConnell. Obama can do it when the outgoing Congress adjourns. There’s no way to do pro forma sessions.
It’s actually a perfect tempering of the recess appointment fight. Once a year, the President gets to make recess appointments if the Congress really has been mindlessly obstructing him.
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jnc:
It’s not on McConnell. Obama can do it when the outgoing Congress adjourns.
But don’t they have to be adjourned for a certain number of days? I thought McConnell can just make sure the adjournment occurs with X-1 days between it and the next session. Is that not correct?
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This is the end of the Congress so there’s going to be an actual adjournment for some period of time, not just a break where they can keep it in session via pro forma sessions.
That whole ten days thing is just a guideline that Breyer made up.
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jnc:
That whole ten days thing is just a guideline that Breyer made up.
The opportunity for snark here is almost too much to pass up!
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I don’t think an adjournment will be scheduled. Seriously. I think there will be a holiday recess, only, and a swearing in of the 115th on Monday January 3. To avoid calling it an adjournment all the leadership has to do is show up with a quorum of the 114th on January 3 before the swearing in of the 115th and that should be easy-peezy. What am I missing?
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So they are going to try and time it to the second to have a seamless transition?
I don’t see that happening.
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There will be an adjournment sine die. That’s the end of the 114th. The gap lasts until the new congress begins in January
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When? Get a quorum Monday morning, and adjourn sine die for the swearing in?
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Right now the adjournment is scheduled for December.
https://democrats.senate.gov/2016-senate-calendar-114th-second-session/#.WC4zaMmk3wg
http://www.senate.gov/pagelayout/legislative/one_item_and_teasers/2016_schedule.htm
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That to me is the tell about whether or not Democrats really believe in opposing Trump by any means necessary.
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Why the progressive left won’t be able to organize an effective opposition to Trump.
They are too busy arguing over the proper form of virtue signaling amongst themselves.
“The backlash over safety pins and allies, explained
The latest fight in the battle of wokeness: safety pins.
Updated by Alex Abad-Santos
Nov 17, 2016, 10:00am EST ”
http://www.vox.com/culture/2016/11/17/13636156/safety-pins-backlash-trump-brexit
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Nailed it.
You think the right is fractious? Think there is and will be a lot of infighting amongst Republicans? Too true.
But look left if you want to see the real battles.
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Another way to put it: they are going to be too busy signaling their virtue to vote.
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Moving on to the Depression phase…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/17/american-neoliberalism-cornel-west-2016-election?CMP=fb_gu
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Nevermind.
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Turnover in Trump’s transition team leads to multiple people referring to the people coming and going as “Stalinesque Purges” (among other ongoing critiques).
http://adam.curry.com/enc/1479416253.077_trumpstalinrundownonnbc.mp3
And Morning Joe:
http://adam.curry.com/enc/1479416361.607_morningjoes-trumptransition-1-mikerogersout.mp3
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Steve Bannon’s worldview in his own words:
https://www.buzzfeed.com/lesterfeder/this-is-how-steve-bannon-sees-the-entire-world
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I’m trying to figure out where his ties to the Ku Klux Klan are, and all his White Nationalism. I’m not seeing it.
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Cause reasons that’s why.
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I laughed.
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“I might support [Merkel]” . . . hah! I might! That’s a commitment.
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Great line from Ace, in a piece on the politicization of ESPN.
If you’re a business selling a non-political good, you should talk to me about your political preferences to the same extent my parents talk to me about their favorite sexual positions: not at all.
I laughed.
(McWing…I laughed at “ich bin ein narcissist” too.)
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I will never quite understand where sports news (I’m not a sports person) gets into politics, or entertainers (actors and musicians) feel like they have to share all their political insights like they are the first person to have them . . . it’s a weird kind of exhibitionism.
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Fuck these colluders.
http://hotair.com/archives/2016/11/18/obamacare-expansion-flood-threatens-state-budgets/
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