Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P Futures | 2167.5 | 7.0 |
| Eurostoxx Index | 340.7 | 0.9 |
| Oil (WTI) | 44.9 | -0.3 |
| US dollar index | 89.3 | 0.4 |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 2.09% | |
| Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA | 103 | |
| Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA | 104 | |
| 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage | 3.75 |
Stocks are higher this morning as the markets come to grips with a Trump presidency. Bonds and MBS are down.
Strangely, the 2 year bond is trading at 90 basis points, while the consensus is that we should be getting 2 more rate hikes by late 2018. This is even more surprising given the action in the 10 year. A poll of economists and strategists indicates that the Fed will still raise rates in December. Given the market action since Trump won, the Fed has every excuse to do so.
Trump will not ask for Janet Yellen’s resignation. That said, she probably won’t get re-nominated when her term expires in 2018. Donald Trump has been critical of Fed policy, insisting that rates should be higher than where they are now.
After an appeals court ruling, President Trump could fire CFPB Director Richard Cordray.
Mortgage Applications fell 1.2% last week as purchases rose 1% and refis fell 3%. The average interest rate for a 30 year fixed conforming mortgage rose 2 basis points to 3.77%.
Initial Jobless Claims fell to 254k last week as employers continue to hang onto their workers.
The conventional wisdom that a Trump victory would be stock bearish, bond bullish, and dollar bearish turned out to be dead wrong, at least initially. Stocks were destroyed in the wee hours of Wednesday morning, and then had a massive turnaround during the day. Legendary investor Carl Icahn probably singlehandedly cleaned up the sellers overnight, pouring $1 billion into S&P 500 futures. He was probably up about 6% on that trade by noon.
The overall feel to the tape is “risk on” and investors are definitely selling bonds to buy stocks. Financials, Pharma, and construction stocks led the charge. Surprisingly the homebuilder ETF (XHB) underperformed. Ultimately a Trump presidency should be bullish for housing, so I am surprised at the stock action.
The more I think about it, the more I believe the Trump presidency will most closely resemble the early Reagan Administration economically. Reagan took over after a long period of economic underperformance and shocks to the economy. Early in his administration, the Fed was tightening while fiscal policy loosened. I think that dynamic is going to play out here, as the government cuts taxes, deregulates, and spends on infrastructure while the Fed methodically raises interest rates off the zero bound. Ultimately the Fed has an easier job here, as they don’t have the raging inflation problem and any recession will probably be more mild since we are already at full employment. I don’t see a deep recession like 81-82 in the cards, however we are certainly in uncharted territory with monetary policy worldwide. The biggest difference is that that the early 80s ended a secular bear market in bonds that began in the 50s. This time around, we are ending a secular bull market in bonds that started in the early 80s. Note that we are also probably at the beginning of a secular bull market in stocks, just like the early 80s.
Filed under: Economy, Elections, Morning Report, politics |
All Things in Moderation 
Dr. Cowbell is spitting mad… Its the end of the world as we know it…
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/paul-krugman-the-economic-fallout
LikeLike
well, i feel fine
LikeLike
Perfect.
LikeLike
“Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”
I already said this once. I will say it again. This man won a Nobel Prize in economics. A Nobel Prize.
LikeLike
Q: As of Jan 21, 2017 next time one of those Iranian PT boats swarm one of our destroyers, the CAPTs of those ships have have standing orders to sink them, yes?
LikeLike
Or at least put a shot across the bow to warn them away…
LikeLike
i guess. see. compromise!
LikeLike
Teh Krugman shits himself
It turns out that we were wrong. There turn out to be a huge number of people — white people, living mainly in rural areas — who don’t share at all our idea of what America is about. For them, it is about blood and soil, about traditional patriarchy and racial hierarchy. And there were many other people who might not share those anti-democratic values, but who nonetheless were willing to vote for anyone bearing the Republican label.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/projects/cp/opinion/election-night-2016/the-unknown-country
LikeLike
I am beginning to think that racism will end up being the Grand Unifying Theory of physics since it appears to explain everything else…
LikeLiked by 1 person
“who don’t share at all our idea of what America is about. For them, it is about blood and soil, about traditional patriarchy and racial hierarchy.”
Or it’s what he identified before as the split:
“But the truth is that we are a deeply divided nation and are likely to remain one for a long time. By all means, let’s listen to each other more carefully; but what we’ll discover, I fear, is how far apart we are. For the great divide in our politics isn’t really about pragmatic issues, about which policies work best; it’s about differences in those very moral imaginations Mr. Obama urges us to expand, about divergent beliefs over what constitutes justice.”
LikeLike
Gasp! People have divergent, irreconcilable beliefs?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Hmm.
“Help Wanted: 4,000 Presidential Appointees”
https://www.greatagain.gov/news/help-wanted-4000-presidential-appointees.html
LikeLike
Vox discovers the downside of executive discretion and regulation writing vs legislation:
http://www.vox.com/2016/11/10/13578550/trump-obamacare-birth-control-iuds
LikeLike
Is it a downside? It’s an easy way for the opposite party to illustrate their evil agenda quickly, well ahead of the next midterms. It’s a built in issue for Democrats to campaign on and motivate their base. Put us back in! And remember, if you ever elect another Republican president, they will take away all the goodies we gave you!
LikeLike
It will be twisted into Republicans wanting to ban birth control. Probably not worth the sturm and drang…
LikeLike
Kev, I think that selling the fact that high pay low skill blue collar jobs are gone forever when the con artist is promising they will return [“trust me”] is a hard sell to the very people who lost those jobs.
That is the First Lesson here. And PA, MI, WI, and OH all are Exhibits.
Another Exhibit is the surprisingly strong showing of DJT among Chicanos in TX. Lots of displaced Blue Collars here, too.
LikeLike
Concur. Although, I feel like Trump was promising something more along the lines of: if I can’t get you those jobs back, then at least I will punish the companies that took them away. With a 35% tariff to go the benefit veterans, if I recall. Brilliant politics. And not necessarily a con, although it might well be.
LikeLike
Some of those jobs can come back.. We have cheaper energy than the rest of the world, and that offsets some of the cheap labor arbitrage from overseas… Many of these plants will be largely automated, however it will bring back jobs. Second, construction will employ a ton of people, if we can get the credit markets working properly again..
LikeLike
Mark:
How are Trump’s empty promises of jobs to the down and out any different than those of HRC or Obama?
LikeLike
I think the Ds were promising retraining, Scott, and to some extent, before they had a R Congress, funded it.
I could be wrong. I think HRC tried to sell retraining in Appalachia. I could be wrong.
Anybody recall differently?
LikeLike
Mark:
I think the Ds were promising retraining
In 2012 Obama promised that his administration would create “1 million new manufacturing jobs by 2016”. Needless to say, he failed.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/obamas-elusive-promise-to-deliver-1-million-new-manufacturing-jobs/2016/05/05/717d8cd0-107a-11e6-93ae-50921721165d_story.html
In exploiting the angst of the less educated and economically down and out by making false promises about a mythical, government-led economic revitalization, all Trump did was take a page straight out of the progressive playbook, doing exactly what they have been doing in order to get elected since, well, the dawn of progressivism.
LikeLike
If I were Trump and the R’s, I’d find out whatever I could do to get Ford not to move their small vehicle manufacturing to Mexico. At least for the next 4-8 years.
LikeLike
Scott – Obama’s “million manufacturing jobs” – I don’t think he had a thing to do with it,really. So you have corrected my recollection.
However, he would probably take some sort of credit for the 700K more manufacturing jobs in 2016. So would the R Congress since then. And so it goes.
LikeLike
Mark:
It’s not just jobs. I highlighted that because it so closely mirrors Trump’s promises, but it is a pretty routine electoral strategy of the left to exploit the misfortunes of people, lying to them about the source of their misfortune and making unfulfillable promises to them about rectifying their misfortune in exchange for their votes.
It is hardly a Trump invention. The left has been getting elected for years doing it.
LikeLike
Mark:
Here’s a couple more of Obama’s false promises about jobs, from his nomination acceptance speech in 2008.
And I’ll invest $150 billion over the next decade in affordable, renewable sources of energy — wind power, and solar power, and the next generation of biofuels — an investment that will lead to new industries and 5 million new jobs that pay well and can’t be outsourced.
And…
You know, unlike John McCain, I will stop giving tax breaks to companies that ship jobs overseas, and I will start giving them to companies that create good jobs right here in America.
Almost Trumpesque, that one.
LikeLiked by 1 person
I believe Pelosi promised 400k new jobs would appear immediately after Obamacare passed.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Worth a read:
“I’m a Muslim, a woman and an immigrant. I voted for Trump.
By Asra Q. Nomani November 10 at 1:13 PM”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/global-opinions/wp/2016/11/10/im-a-muslim-a-woman-and-an-immigrant-i-voted-for-trump
LikeLiked by 1 person
There she is! I knew she was out there somewhere.
LikeLike
Dumb bitch alert!
LikeLiked by 1 person
OMG. These people. Anyone else here think the uptick in hate crimes is mostly angry liberals faking it, or committing real vandalism and adding a bunch of epithets and “Trump” to drive the point home? I gotta keep an open mind but I’m having a hard time believing a Trump victory led to a wave of racist hate crimes. It doesn’t feel legit.
LikeLike
I believe 99.9% of all “hate crimes” are liberal hoaxes…
LikeLike
Hawt blue on blue action
“You are part of the problem,” he continued, blaming Brazile for clearing the path for Trump’s victory by siding with Clinton early on. “You and your friends will die of old age and I’m going to die from climate change. You and your friends let this happen, which is going to cut 40 years off my life expectancy.”“You are part of the problem,” he continued, blaming Brazile for clearing the path for Trump’s victory by siding with Clinton early on. “You and your friends will die of old age and I’m going to die from climate change. You and your friends let this happen, which is going to cut 40 years off my life expectancy.”
The dying from climate change is a nice touch.
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5824cb95e4b0ddd4fe7954e8
LikeLiked by 1 person
Will Rahn at CBS News basically agrees with me on the press and Democrats self-defeating attitude toward Trump supporters does not serve them and is hypocritical and disingenuous.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/commentary-the-unbearable-smugness-of-the-press-presidential-election-2016/
LikeLike
I’m fascinated by people for whom this concern influences their vote.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/us-allies-look-on-anxiously-as-trump-takes-commanding-position-in-presidential-race/2016/11/09/c246dd4c-a63e-11e6-9bd6-184ab22d218e_story.html
LikeLike
It’s a globalist orientation. People who are globalist, the same people who looked in horror at the Brexit as if it signified the end times, are the people who wring their hands over what foreign leaders will think about how we are running our country. Also the same people whose primary concern over the Iraq war was a totalitarian dictator’s “sovereignty”, ironically.
Same folks who want us to pay global taxes, have US politicians they don’t like tried for crimes at the Hague, have the UN supervise our elections, etc., etc.
I feel fairly confident that our founding fathers weren’t worried if England or France would approve of our decisions when writing the constitution. “Well, I’d like it if we had a president instead of a king, but the French and the Prussians would laugh at us! So, monarchy it is!”
There are lots of reasons to be concerned about Trump, but how he gives foreign leaders the feels is not one of them.
LikeLike
This “it’s the end of the world” nonsense has to stop.
people think we’re literally going to be underwater in 4 years. WTF.
LikeLike
Get used to it…
LikeLike
The DNC right now: http://www.theonion.com/article/man-blames-hangover-on-everything-but-how-much-he–100
LikeLike
This might sting a bit.
LikeLike
So in Colorado, Hillary won 46% to 44%. Gary got about 5%
but look how the single payer ballot initiative went:
Amendment 69 (ColoradoCare)
Yes: 20.3%
No: 79.7%
boom.
LikeLike
Moreover, they have noticed how dissenters from dominant political orthodoxy have been treated in these institutions — they are ridiculed, ostracized, sometimes harassed and occasionally punished for their political views. They have seen that progressives have organized to deprive dissenters of their jobsand their livelihoods. The more politically aware among them may have even noticed that the Obama administration has been distinctly unwilling to accommodate religious dissenters. For example, the Obama Justice Department has refused to rule out the possibility that the government would seek to deny tax exemptions for religious institutions that refuse to recognize same-sex marriage.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2016/11/11/maybe-the-irrational-election-related-fears-of-college-students-arent-so-irrational/
LikeLike
George, that was a good one.
LikeLike
Shaming as a way to convert the electorate works
But it also can backfire.
LikeLike
The left simply cannot understand that politics is ultimately a sales business and insulting your potential customers is not a winning strategy…
Buy my product, you simpleton troglodyte!!!
LikeLiked by 1 person
I thought this was an interesting tidbit, noted by James Taranto, from a NYT post-mortem on the Hillary’s campaign:
Catholics make up nearly a quarter of the population, but we don’t need to “reach out” to them? And this is the woman touted as uber-competent?
LikeLiked by 1 person
Idiots. I understand that “demographics is destiny” and I think that’s ultimately true, but right now, like you say, Catholics make up nearly a quarter of the population. White people still make up the majority of the population. This is not the time to start courting only the minority groups mostly likely to vote for you anyway.
LikeLike
Brent:
Buy my product, you simpleton troglodyte!!!
Given that the progressive “product” is premised on the fact that most people are simpletons, it does at least have the benefit of being truth in advertising.
LikeLiked by 1 person
This was DOA anyway – but it had some good features that will be lost.
LikeLike
“as well as the sheer difficulty of renegotiating a Pacific pact that was seven years in the making, entailing compromises among a dozen countries including Australia, Canada, Chile and Japan, but excluding China”
I gotta say boohoo on that. They let media companies write insane international copyright laws that were pure crony capitalism. Among other things. Far too many consumer-unfriendly, general-public unfriendly sops to corporate special interests. It essentially eliminated the concept of any copyrighted material ever entering the public domain, among other things that had no place in a trade agreement.
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2015/10/final-leaked-tpp-text-all-we-feared
LikeLike
http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/republicans-expand-domination-of-state-legislatures
Here’s Obamas legacy. The GOP one state short of being able to control 3/4 of the states in an constitutional convention
LikeLike
It’s not just Obama’s legacy. The entire Democratic party and their most vociferous supporters, and certainly every campus creating safe spaces for college students so they are never exposed to anything they don’t agree with, should be credited with this. They gave it away.
LikeLike
I believe the Progressive Left has managed to be even more of-putting than the Moral Majority on the 80s was..
LikeLike
Brent:
That’s because, as hard as it is to imagine, progressives are even bigger moral authoritarians than was the Moral Majority.
LikeLiked by 1 person
Can you imagine re-writing the commerce clause so that it isn’t a “get out of jail free” card for the left?
LikeLike
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/797443003514318848
LikeLiked by 1 person
Godwin Law Violation: Too many Hitlers on the field.
15 yard penalty, replay 2nd down…
LikeLiked by 1 person
Just like a Nazi would say.
LikeLike
I wonder if the same folks who were comparing Romney and McCain to Hitler are the same people who always tell me that suggesting Democrats and Republicans both have corrupt and hypocritical politicians in their ranks is a “false equivalence”. I’m pretty sure I’ve gotten a sarcastic “Both Sides Do It™” from the Adolph Romney crowd.
Of course, I mean Adolph Romney then. Now, Romney is an earnest guy who was well-intentioned if mistaken on policy, unlike Trump, who is a Nazi.
LikeLike
So what’s the over/under for how long the progressive performance art meltdown goes on ?
LikeLike
Kevin Williamson nails it.
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/442155/donald-trump-executive-power-left-loves-constitutional-checks-balances-again
If our so-called liberals want to bust a few shop windows in Oakland — well, there isn’t much to do in Oakland, anyway. But those of you who are shaking in your Birkenstocks over the election of Donald Trump should consider the possibility that if the office of the presidency is that important to you, then perhaps the most intelligent course of action is not to pin your hopes on controlling it always and forever (something unlikely to happen under truly democratic processes) but to work toward making it less important — to you, and to everybody else, too. You’ll find a great many conservatives ready to join you in that project.
LikeLike
jnc:
So what’s the over/under for how long the progressive performance art meltdown goes on ?
At least through the inauguration, I would think.
LikeLiked by 1 person
That sounds about right.
Assuming that their Facebook petition doesn’t lead to all the Republican electors reconsidering and deciding to vote for HRC instead.
LikeLike
Then the demonstrations will get worse. I’m guessing that’s a consideration most of the electors fear. It’s why they don’t rebel very often.
LikeLike
First sub- freezing night.
Or rain.
LikeLiked by 1 person
The really interesting and entertaining part of this clip is Vandenhueval’/ earnestness over climate change.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/13/mary_matalin_demands_van_jones_retract_whitelash_remarks.html
Gaia weeps! She’d sell it better if she wore waders all the time.
LikeLike
I like George: “STEPHANOPOULOS: You guys will talk about it outside. We are going to come back with The New York Times columnist Tom Friedman.”
I think most people are utterly clueless about how to communicate or persuade. Everybody preaches to the choir, almost everybody lives in their own insular bubble. Matalin and Van Jones were either talking past each other or being personally offended (of course, these shows are not the place for extended discussion, anyway).
Facebook as been full of it. Seth McFarlane’s missives on climate change have been typical: you’re idiots, it’s science, now why don’t you just accept it, idiot. What, I’m being nice about it!
Lots of that. Have many very liberal friends, and their depression over the Trump win is about all some of them seem to talk about (when, earlier, reflecting they couldn’t wait for the election to be over so they could talk about what people were having for dinner again; of course, that’s when an HRC win was just assumed). One of them announced they don’t understand it, but of course they don’t have any conservative friends or know any conservatives so they really don’t know what real people actually think about it . . . because why would you have any friends that don’t agree with you lockstep on politics? Those people aren’t even human!
The climate folks are freaking out because Trump will pull us out of the worthless, self-flattering, nothing-but-preening Paris Climate Accords. Look, that stupid photo-op was never going to make a difference in the climate no matter what you believe.
LikeLike