Morning Report: Small Business Optimism falls 9/13/16

Posted on September 13, 2016 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2135.0 -17.0
Eurostoxx Index 314.7 -0.6
Oil (WTI) 45.1 -1.2
US dollar index 86.5 0.3
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.66%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.54

Markets are lower this morning as overseas stocks remain weak. Bonds and MBS are flat

Small Business confidence slipped in September according to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index. Small business earnings are taking a hit as labor costs increase and sales growth remains muted. Small Businesses added .24 workers on average, which is the 12th monthly increase in a row and the highest reading this year. That said, job openings are falling, so we could be losing some momentum here in the future. Planned capital expenditures (another big measure of confidence) fell. Overall, as NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg says, “Small business cannot get out of second gear.” Sentiment still remains lower than pre-recession levels and Washington remains the first and second biggest issues facing business.

Completed Foreclosures fell 3.9% MOM and 16.5% YOY, according to CoreLogic. Foreclosure inventory is down 29% to about 355,000 homes or 0.9% of all homes with a mortgage. The Northeast (especially NY and NJ) continue to have the highest level of foreclosure inventory.

Yesterday, stock rallied after Lael Brainard called for prudence in raising interest rates. The Fed now enters their quiet period until the FOMC decision next week. The Fed Funds futures are assigning a 20% probability of a rate hike in September and a 60% probability of a rate hike by December. Meanwhile, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon says “just hike rates, already”

The House is expected to pass a reform of Dodd Frank today. The Senate has their own bill that has yet to be introduced. Obama will undoubtedly veto any change, but it will be on the table for the next administration. The biggest part will be providing regulatory relief to smaller entities, and bringing the CFPB under Congressional oversight.

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |

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58 Responses

  1. markinaustin, on September 13, 2016 at 11:53 am said:

    Is Lael Brainard the FRB’s resident blonde?

    FRIST…

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
    • novahockey, on September 13, 2016 at 3:04 pm said:

      my extended family.

      Like

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    • Brent Nyitray, on September 13, 2016 at 3:09 pm said:

      deplorables…

      Like

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      • novahockey, on September 13, 2016 at 3:19 pm said:

        truer words.

        “One man wearing a florescent-yellow Lee Supply safety shirt, with grease smudged on his arms and face, registered to vote for the first time in his 61 years.”

        seriously though. all my family lives in Western PA and few few of them went to college. energy, construction, etc workers.

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        • novahockey, on September 13, 2016 at 3:24 pm said:

          and if you read the comments to that piece, it’s the vileness there that woudl push me into the trump column

          “In a nutshell. But this kind of succinct analysis doesn’t justify a columnist’s salary, so we must pretend there is something interesting and unique about this particular case of undereducated workers in a declining industry and their attraction to a snake oil salesman.”

          fuck you dude, that’s my uncle, cousin and grandpap you’re talking about.

          Liked by 1 person

        • jnc4p, on September 13, 2016 at 3:41 pm said:

          They aren’t voting out of ignorance either. They just take Democrats at their word when they say that they want to bankrupt the coal industry as part of their climate change agenda.

          Liked by 1 person

        • Brent Nyitray, on September 13, 2016 at 3:42 pm said:

          where’s Thomas Frank when you need him?

          Liked by 1 person

      • jnc4p, on September 13, 2016 at 3:42 pm said:

        “The Deplorables” would make a great band name.

        Like

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  4. ScottC, on September 13, 2016 at 2:11 pm said:

    The NCAA joins the Hating On North Carolina bandwagon.

    http://www.ncaa.org/about/resources/media-center/news/ncaa-relocate-championships-north-carolina-2016-17

    Is there no limit to what thinking people will put up with from these lying, self-righteous, morally preening organizations?

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    • Brent Nyitray, on September 13, 2016 at 3:10 pm said:

      Did you see Goodell has instituted a Rooney rule for women?

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      • ScottC, on September 13, 2016 at 3:30 pm said:

        Brent:

        Did you see Goodell has instituted a Rooney rule for women?

        Doesn’t that only apply to the league office, not teams? At least not yet, anyway.

        I may have to stop watching professional and big time college sports altogether. There is apparently nothing that the left can’t and won’t politicize. I grow weary.

        Liked by 1 person

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        • novahockey, on September 13, 2016 at 3:39 pm said:

          i got into homebrewing.

          Like

        • ScottC, on September 13, 2016 at 4:00 pm said:

          nova:

          i got into homebrewing.

          BTW, I will be in South Bend this Friday/Saturday. #3 doing the tour.

          Like

        • Brent Nyitray, on September 13, 2016 at 3:43 pm said:

          ESPN’s ratings have been falling since they decided to become the MSNBC / The View of sports..

          I am waiting for the left’s push to mandate 50 / 50 coverage of men’s and women’s sports on TV. You know its coming..

          Like

        • ScottC, on September 13, 2016 at 4:01 pm said:

          Brent:

          You know its coming..

          Undoubtedly.

          Liked by 1 person

        • Brent Nyitray, on September 13, 2016 at 5:08 pm said:

          And if you don’t watch, they’ll go Clockwork Orange on your ass and force you to watch the WNBA in a straitjacket…

          Like

        • novahockey, on September 14, 2016 at 8:27 am said:

          the ND campus is just beautiful. this weekend? you’ll be there on a game day? Michigate State is in town. so you’ll get the full experience. the candlelight mass post game is always fun.

          Like

        • ScottC, on September 14, 2016 at 8:33 am said:

          Yes, we have the tour on Friday and the we will be there for the MSU game. Unfortunately it is a 7:30 pm start, and as you know ND games usually take 4 hours with all the commercials. So post game will be a bit of a rush to get to bed. But a Saturday afternoon tailgate on campus should be fun. I like the campus there a lot.

          Like

        • novahockey, on September 14, 2016 at 8:49 am said:

          i’m sure you’ve made your arrangments, but i’ve had good results with https://rentlikeachampion.com/South-bend-IN

          get a house close to campus for the price of a room at one of the chain hotels.

          Like

        • ScottC, on September 14, 2016 at 9:04 am said:

          That’s useful, thanks. Hotels are a bit outrageous. Jacked up prices AND they make you book for 2 nights minimum.

          Like

    • ScottC, on September 14, 2016 at 6:38 am said:

      Mark (from your link):

      Donald J. Trump is manifestly unfit to be president of the United States.

      I totally agree. But so is HRC.

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    • ScottC, on September 14, 2016 at 7:19 am said:

      Question:

      If promoting conspiracy theories about Obama not being a natural born citizen, or secretly being a Muslim and the head of ISIS, renders one to be unfit for the office of the presidency, why doesn’t the promotion of conspiracy theories about Republicans waging wars on women and blacks, or conspiracy theories about how “the rich” don’t pay their “fair share” of taxes render one unfit for the office of the presidency?

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      • markinaustin, on September 15, 2016 at 2:56 pm said:

        Scott, you asked me some ?s as if I were the author of the article about DJT.

        If I read a D or liberal who points out HRC’s integrity problems one-by-one I will post it here. I think JNC found a couple earlier on. This was the first refutation of DJT by a R and a conservative that I have seen since some early ones in the Weekly Standard, and by Will, and of course by the FP neocons like Krauthammer.

        The link to Once Upon a Time in Arkansas no longer brings up the video, but does still produce the transcript. It is the best insight into HRC’s “issues” by a non-conservative available, still, even ‘though it mainly details her participation in the fraud to keep that little S&L afloat in Arkansas.

        Like

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        • ScottC, on September 16, 2016 at 6:13 am said:

          Mark:

          Scott, you asked me some ?s as if I were the author of the article about DJT.

          Apologies…they were intended just as generic questions for anyone, not specifically you. They just happened to occur to me after reading your link.

          I just wonder why insinuating that Obama is secretly a Muslim working against America is so far beyond thepale as to render one to be unfit for office, but insinuating that Republicans are secretly sexists and racists working against women and blacks is a respectable and acceptable part of our political discourse.

          Like

        • Kevin S. Willis, on September 16, 2016 at 10:06 pm said:

          “but insinuating that Republicans are secretly sexists and racists working against women and blacks is a respectable and acceptable part of our political discourse.”

          I’d say there are two reasons that could be argued. One accusation is general and non-specific, ostensibly targeted at an ideology rather than a specific person. 2nd, the insinuation that Obama is a secret Muslim and of illegitimate American birth is targeted at a specific black Democrat, so therefore inherently racist, and thus much worse than saying everyone who wants a strong defense, a smaller government, and tax cuts is a racist and misogynist.

          The main reason the argument is being made is that there is a general sense it makes Trump look foolish, irrational, and racist, and that it has traction with independents and swing voters or non-voters or people who, in other circumstances, simply would not vote for Hillary. It’s not an argument made on principal but an argument made to advance a particular candidate electoral prospects.

          Like

  6. Michigoose, on September 13, 2016 at 9:00 pm said:

    Just to let you know. . . it’s been a week since Sue entered hospice, and a couple of days since I last heard from her. I’ll be sure to let you know more when I know it.

    Like

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    • ScottC, on September 14, 2016 at 3:27 pm said:

      mcWing:

      It’s stuff like this that makes me wonder if Obama wants HRC to win?

      The only concern that Obama has is Obama. I truly believe that. He is the ultimate narcissist.

      Like

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    • Kevin S. Willis, on September 16, 2016 at 10:10 pm said:

      This says something about what a terrible candidate HRC is, for the most part. Because Trump is, whatever else one thinks about him, an awful candidate on many levels. Hillary should be beating him by double digits.

      Like

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    • ScottC, on September 14, 2016 at 4:55 pm said:

      McWing:

      SJW’s want BYU out of the NCAA

      The ACC just announced that it will be following the lead of the NCAA and pulling all neutral site events out of North Carolina.

      http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2016/09/14/acc-follows-ncaas-lead-relocates-athletic-championships-from-north-carolina.html

      I have already sent a note to Father Leahy, President of Boston College, asking whether he voted for this move by the Presidents Council of the ACC. If he did, BC has seen the last donation out of my pocket that it will ever see.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
    • markinaustin, on September 15, 2016 at 8:16 am said:

      If the federal gummint grants exemptions from Title IX to religious institutions then what is all the bitching against the NCAA about? BYU is not breaking the law, right?

      I assume no GLBT person in one’s right mind would go to BYU, but it has been a second home to Samoan and Tongan football players of outsized dimensions who play at BYU until they are 25 years old and then go to the NFL. This may be the real issue for some of BYU’s opponents. They also won’t play baseball on Sunday which is why they shouldn’t be in the B12.

      Like

      Reply
  11. jnc4p, on September 14, 2016 at 9:53 pm said:

    NoVA, your Wall Street:

    Like

    Reply

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