Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktStocks are flattish this morning ahead of the FOMC decision. Bonds and MBS are down small.
The FOMC rate decision is scheduled for 2:00 pm EST today, so beware of volatility around that time. We will be getting a new set of economic projections and a new dot graph. Yellen will also hold a press conference afterward. What will investors focus on? the dot graph.
Mortgage Applications fell 5.5% last week. Purchases fell 4.2% while refis fell 6.9%.
It is looking like there might not be a deal with Greece, as Tsipras said Greece was willing to live with the consequences of saying “no” to their creditors. Bloomberg provides this helpful graph of where we are in the tug-of-war between creditors and Greece: The ouzo is definitely running out of the glass at this point
“Sell in May and Go Away” meets “Don’t fight the Fed.” A record number of investors have told BOA / Merrill Lynch that they have bought downside protection in stocks ahead of rate hikes. FWIW, I am not sure that a 50 basis point or 75 basis point Fed Funds rate is going to do that much to pull back the economy, and I think the Fed is going to take it very, very slow. This is not a typical tightening, where the Fed is trying to cool off the economy. The last thing they want to do is choke off the recovery. Second, if (when) China’s stock market bubble bursts, we could see a massive flight to quality (in other words, investors buying Treasuries) that would probably offset at least some of the effect of higher short term rates.
Barclay’s is exiting the US MBS market, following Royal Bank of Scotland’s lead. They will still trade risk sharing bonds and might still trade agency paper, but they are out of the market making business in pre-crisis paper.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
George Takei interview in the NYT is worth a read:
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Saying goodbye to our old pool……and $15,000.
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I suspect the new pool will be money well spent, especially this time of year. Water restrictions going to impact your use of it?
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Worth a read:
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jnc, the city won’t be happy with our use of water to fill it and they’ll charge us a pretty penny but we don’t have the same restrictions here as some other cities. Primarily because a majority of our water is well water. We are letting our front lawn die though.
I’ve heard that some cities won’t even let you remodel your pool or begin new ones but I haven’t verified that. When we picked out tile at a store specifically for pool tile the place was packed!
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hi stranger!
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Hi Nova………how’s my favorite devilish lobbyist and that little guy of yours?
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Brent, isn’t it no big deal if Greece defaults and leaves the Eurozone?
This would be like Wyo defaulted, not CA, TX, or FL or NY. Right?
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I suspect that The EU will want to make a Grexit VERY painful as a message to Spain, Italy, Portugal and Iteland
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Well, that makes sense, George – but I am wondering if it will affect world markets or just be a short term minor ripple. I guess it will make Greece a good vacation spot because the dollar will be worth like a million drachmas or whatever.
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doing well. little guy will be in evil finishing school soon.
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Nova
doing well. little guy will be in evil finishing school soon.
I would have expected no less……………LOL
Glad things are going well for you! I bet you’re super excited about the election….hehe
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2016 is so long from now. i just need to get through the next 2 months. and then we have debt ceiling and appropriations bills in the Fall.
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Nova
debt ceiling and appropriations bills in the Fall.
Oh yeah………..that sounds like a real blast. 🙂
Sometimes when I watch the news, which I try not to do too often, it seems like the election is just around the corner.
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I think that sex “reassignment” surgeons could use an ethics lesson from the tattoo artists in McWing’s link from yesterday.
BTW, from the reality quickly outpacing parody files, there is also this:
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“markinaustin, on June 17, 2015 at 11:06 am said:
Brent, isn’t it no big deal if Greece defaults and leaves the Eurozone?”
Matthew Yglesias thinks they have it contained now:
“Europe’s leaders have succeeded in making Greece unimportant
Updated by Matthew Yglesias on June 17, 2015, 10:00 a.m. ET ”
http://www.vox.com/2015/6/17/8793945/greece-important
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Thanx for the link, JNC. That seems pretty straightforward.
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They’re making quick work of the demo.
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Scott…………another sad story.
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lms:
Scott…………another sad story.
Totally depressing.
There are all kinds of body-image disorders in the young, especially among young girls. Would any sane doctor indulge such disorders by recommending body altering surgery for a 16 year old who suffered depression because she thought she was too fat? Of course not. Instead some kind of psychological counseling would be in order to help her overcome her negative body image. But for this poor kid, irreversible body mutilation is the answer? I rate it highly likely that at best the surgery doesn’t help his self-image at all, and at worse he comes to deeply regret it.
And this is precisely why I find the whole Bruce Jenner circus so disturbing and sordid. I really and truly don’t give a crap about what Bruce Jenner does to himself or what he wants to be called. But by treating his disorder as something to be celebrated rather than pitied, with national cover stories and “courage” awards and demands for us all to indulge his fantasy as if it is a beautiful reality, the culture does a huge disservice to young people like the boy in that NYT story.
The damage that is being wrought by the culture warriors on the left is quite depressing.
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NoVA, even I don’t bother with engaging cef for the most part. He’s a complete and total joke.
Edit: And apparently I can’t take my own advice.
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Is he the one that believes in the original October surprise? Where Bush I flew in the “cargo bay” of a stealth bomber to Paris to cut a deal with the Iranians?
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Scott
The damage that is being wrought by the culture warriors on the left is quite depressing.
I’d hate to see you miss an opportunity to blame the left for some poor child’s self image issues and body mutilation as you call it. Do you ever wonder if these types of things would ever happen if there were no “left”? Would young men and women, or even older men or women still have feelings of confusion regarding gender and seek out ways to correct what they believe are errors in their DNA?
I think there is a personality type that is fascinated with the Bruce Jenners of the world and I doubt their political persuasion matters all that much. Would his story still be playing out in public to this degree if there was no one watching reality tv? Is the left to blame for that as well?
Is the left to blame for the poor self image so many women have of themselves regarding body weight that quite naturally leads to eating disorders? Is it also to blame for teens that engage in cutting as a means of self punishment?
I think all these issues are much more complex than a left right dynamic and I find all of it rather sad.
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lms:
I’d hate to see you miss an opportunity to blame the left for some poor child’s self image issues and body mutilation as you call it.
I don’t blame the left for his problems. I blame the culture warriors on the left for making it more likely that he will continue to suffer rather than that he will get the help he actually needs.
BTW, if it isn’t body mutilation, what is it?
Would [Jenner’s] story still be playing out in public to this degree if there was no one watching reality tv?
I think so, yes. His relationship to the Kardashian’s has probably helped him get the most economic mileage out of this, but it isn’t the reality TV aspect of it that landed him on the front page of Vanity Fair, or garnered him an ESPN sports award for “courage”, or has the Wa/Po and NYT doing stories on which pronoun to use when speaking of him. Credit for all that belongs to LGBT political movement and its sympathizers on the left that have decided that they have the cultural upper hand (see gay “marriage”) and it is time to make the most of it by trying to normalize transgenderism.
I understand why people on the left who recognize this transgender craziness for what it is would want to disassociate the left from it. But I don’t think there is any reasonable way to deny that the Jenner story and the sudden proliferation of even more transgender media stories has a distinct political aspect to it. And it isn’t people on the right celebrating it, that’s for sure.
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Scott
I blame the culture warriors on the left for making it more likely that he will continue to suffer rather than that he will get the help he actually needs.
That just doesn’t make any sense to me at all. Do you know that he’s suffering or are you projecting a little bit there? He seems to be doing what he thinks is best for him, whether we believe it’s the help he “actually needs” or not is neither here nor there.
His relationship to the Kardashian’s has probably helped him get the most economic mileage out of this, but it isn’t the reality TV aspect of it that landed him on the front page of Vanity Fair, or garnered him an ESPN sports award for “courage”, or has the Wa/Po and NYT doing stories on which pronoun to use when speaking of him.
It’s precisely the reality tv aspect of the Kardashians and his association with them that’s turned this into another media circus. I have no love for the media coverage but I doubt so much attention would have been paid to him or how to address him if he hadn’t already become a reality star. Most people wouldn’t even remember who he was at this point.
I do agree the coverage has been ridiculous and the “courage” award in my opinion downright silly.
Most transgender craziness isn’t necessarily a product of the left but the fact that those who tend to be outside the “norm” in sexual behavior have found a home on the left isn’t particularly surprising.
I don’t think it’s that much different than some of the crazier conservatives who’ve found a home on the right. I wouldn’t try to claim that the right created them.
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lms:
Do you know that he’s suffering or are you projecting a little bit there?
The poor kid tried to commit suicide and decided to mutilate is own body. So yeah, I am pretty sure he is suffering.
This is precisely the problem with the cultural normalization of these kinds of emotional problems. It causes otherwise sensible and compassionate people to ignore the obvious, thereby increasing the chances that the problem persists. A classic case of the emperors new clothes.
He seems to be doing what he thinks is best for him, whether we believe it’s the help he “actually needs” or not is neither here nor there.
And the girl with bulimia who forces herself to throw up after every meal thinks she is doing what is best for her. Do you think whether she gets the help she actually needs is neither her nor there?
…but I doubt so much attention would have been paid to him or how to address him if he hadn’t already become a reality star.
I guess we will have to disagree on that. His status as a former gold medalist olympian is of far greater importance to the media attention than is Kardashian relationship. As I said, the Vanity Fair cover, ESPN, the Wa/Po, the NYT….they aren’t celebrating him because he is a reality TV star. They are celebrating him in order to advance a political cause.
Most people wouldn’t even remember who he was at this point.
Never having watched the Kardashian’s, I have to confess that I had no idea he had anything to do with them until I started reading the transgender stories. I have always known him as the decathlete on the Wheaties Box (whose advert was hilariously parodied by John Belushi on SNL.)
I don’t think it’s that much different than some of the crazier conservatives who’ve found a home on the right.
There are certainly crazies on the right, but there is no movement on the right that I can think of that is comparable to the various victimology movements on the left, if only because the right generally does not see the federal government as a tool to force its craziness on everyone else. Most of the crazies on the right just want to be left alone by the federal government.
I wouldn’t try to claim that the right created them.
Please read what I actually said. I have not said the left “created” anyone, and I very specifically said in the very first line of my last response to you “I don’t blame the left for his problems.” Jeez.
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lmsinca, the left didn’t create Jenner, but it is the side that is insisting that s/he be validated as making a brave choice, and that the choice be considered as normal behavior.
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But not Dolezal for some reason. She doesn’t forget any lefty sympathy. It’s not like the transracial deceive anymore than the transgendered do, unless they admit their trans-state to every person they meet.
Weird the double-standard.
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jnc, it might be the “side”, as you call it, that wants his brave choice validated, but I think you guys all spend too much time assuming the media or even the more outlying factions of the left represent the majority of us. They really don’t.
I think people who have issues with their gender identity need help, not awards or media validation. They may need validation from friends and family but may not receive that. I also think some who come out as transgender or even gay or lesbian can be very brave indeed, but not the ones like Jenner who seek media attention and monetary reward.
I spend a lot less time looking at things through a political prism than the rest of you. I’m more interested in things like longevity, success, happiness, etc etc………..I don’t think either side can promise those things to us and we’re fools if we believe they can.
But I still tend to support candidates from the left, within reason, because it’s the only party that can come close to my general sensibilities.
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lms:
…but I think you guys all spend too much time assuming the media or even the more outlying factions of the left represent the majority of us.
In my comment that prompted this thread, I specifically criticized the “culture warriors of the left”. It was you, not me, who expanded that to the left more generally. I think a lot of people on the left, perhaps even a majority, see the radical LGBT movement for what it is, but for various reasons have a very difficult time calling it out.
I would love to see this become the theme of a media gotcha question posed to all politicians on the left, to see how Hillary et al would respond. Not likely to happen though. That strategy is generally reserved for politicians on the right.
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George
Weird the double-standard.
I can see why you would believe that. Personally, I think they’re both a little screwed up. I didn’t really understand Scott’s link this morning discussing the supposed fraudulent nature of either or both.
I find her a little more deceitful I think but does it really matter to me either way….not really.
When my oldest daughter was in college she tried to volunteer with a women’s group that did a lot of community work. At the time she was sporting dred locks, it was the fashion at the time I guess, and there were several black women who objected to her participation because they thought she was trying to pass herself off as black. She was crushed because the thought had never crossed her mind…………she just thought they were cool!
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Ultimately it makes me no never mind, however either socially constructed identities, be it race or gender, are fluid or they’re not.
And if Transgenderism is an illness as you seem to imply, how can homosexuality not be? If it’s not an illness, how can transracialism be any less acceptably fluid?
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“I think people who have issues with their gender identity need help, not awards or media validation. ”
I completely agree. I feel sorry for Jenner more than anything. But then I end up in a dispute with Newagent over how my refusal to accept that gender is a fluid spectrum based on how an individual chooses to self identify rather than a fixed biological fact makes me a “transphobe” and I tend to lose the desire to have a nuanced debate.
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Mc Wing
And if Transgenderism is an illness as you seem to imply, how can homosexuality not be? If it’s not an illness, how can transracialism be any less acceptably fluid?
McWing, not sure I implied it’s an illness. I think there are sexual behaviors that are outside the norm and some should probably be accepted as a biological deviation and perhaps some as even a societal deviation. Just because I think someone might need help dealing with their sexual identity doesn’t necessarily mean the deviation is an illness.
IMO, transracialism doesn’t have a basis in biology so perhaps I find it a little more unusual but I don’t have any issue with it really. I think her deceit was slightly more egregious because of her association with the NAACP.
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jnc
But then I end up in a dispute with Newagent over how my refusal to accept that gender is a fluid spectrum based on how an individual chooses to self identify rather than a fixed biological fact makes me a “transphobe” and I tend to lose the desire to have a nuanced debate.
Yes, I can see how that could happen……………LOL
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Scott
The poor kid tried to commit suicide and decided to mutilate is own body. So yeah, I am pretty sure he is suffering.
I wasn’t referring to the troubled child, who was quite obviously suffering, (I think we already agreed on that). I was referring to Jenner.
He seems to be doing what he thinks is best for him, whether we believe it’s the help he “actually needs” or not is neither here nor there.
And the girl with bulimia who forces herself to throw up after every meal thinks she is doing what is best for her. Do you think whether she gets the help she actually needs is neither her nor there?
I don’t know where you get this idea from. Again, I was referring to Jenner not any of these children. He’s an adult and presumably knows what he’s doing, and I wouldn’t begin to suggest to him that he get “the help he needs”. Whether I think what he’s doing makes sense is really none of my business. You’re comparing apples to oranges here.
The rest will have to wait until tomorrow…………..
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lms:
I was referring to Jenner
When I referred to suffering, I was responding directly to this from you:
I’d hate to see you miss an opportunity to blame the left for some poor child’s self image issues and body mutilation as you call it.
I”m pretty sure your reference to “some poor child” wasn’t a reference to Jenner, so I don’t know why you would have though my direct response to it was.
Anyway….
I wasn’t referring to the troubled child, who was quite obviously suffering…
As we now agree that the poor kid is troubled and suffering, I will reiterate my original point: The political movement to culturally normalize transgenderism is dong a great disservice to people like him, and is making it significantly less likely that they will get the help they actually need.
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Don’t you worry about the AGW data though, that shit is rock.fucking.solid.
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Good morning ATiMer’s…………I’ll try to get back to this conversation later today…..up at the butt crack of dawn to put in an endurance swim this morning.
I’d forgotten how intense this place can be and how careful I have to be about how I word my comments………..and read all of yours.
I’ll be back though! 😉
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Alexander Hamilton to be removed from the $10 bill and replaced with an unnamed woman.
http://www.ijreview.com/2015/06/347257-the-us-government-is-replacing-alexander-hamilton-with-a-woman-on-the-10-bill/
Of all the people to be honored by being placed on our currency, Hamilton is the most deserving. And so the least deserving of being removed, especially as the result of some affirmative action program.
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The Federalist agrees with me:
http://thefederalist.com/2015/06/18/four-reasons-alexander-hamilton-needs-to-stay-on-our-money/
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Most deserving after Washington and Lincoln , but most appropriate of all. If we are actually going to do this, Hamilton should be “promoted” to a larger denomination. Grant doesn’t need a bill.
Let’s see if we can get this unnamed woman to replace Grant. That makes more sense.
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Mark:
Let’s see if we can get this unnamed woman to replace Grant. That makes more sense.
Agreed. Or Jackson. More visibility than the $50, which should make the woman lobby happy, and Jackson being on US currency is too ironic anyway. Jackson hated the idea of a central bank.
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Great point on Jackson.
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If Hamilton does indeed get replaced on the $10 bill, I vow never to use a $10 bill ever again. That will be my silent protest.
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You still use cash?
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I do. Old dog, new tricks and all that.
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Scott
Sorry about the confusion yesterday re Jenner vs the child. In my mind we had already agreed that the one was a sad and depressing story and so I jumped back to Jenner remembering things you’d said in the previous thread. I see now that I wasn’t clear at all regarding that.
I will reiterate my original point: The political movement to culturally normalize transgenderism is dong a great disservice to people like him, and is making it significantly less likely that they will get the help they actually need.
I guess I don’t know how you know this. It should be up to his parents to make sure he gets the help he needs. There have always been children who fall through the cracks and end up harming themselves and changing their chances of a better future.
I think there is a lot of confusion regarding transgenderism among young adults and children who confuse a desire to be something else with the real necessity to become someone else. I think the biological need exists in a few fairly rare instances,. Otherwise, I believe that once a person reaches a certain age they have the right to change although I would hope the ethics involved, such as they are, would make it a bit difficult.
Regarding Jenner the athlete vs. Jenner the reality “star”, all I can say is that it would be difficult for me to discount the effect his reality personality, and our culture of sensationalized news, has had on the story.
I spend a lot of time at a gym these days and one of the machines I enjoy using, when I’m not swimming or using free weights, is a rowing machine. The television directly above the rowing machines may actually be running 24/7 Khardashian reality shows. I expect to see Jenner as Caitlyn added to that feed any day now. I wear headphones and listen to pretty loud music and I don’t watch reality tv, but even I’ve absorbed some of the culture. You’re lucky if you’ve been able to avoid it.
I don’t understand the attraction some people have to the Khardashians, hoarders, mountain men or naked survivalists, but it exits. People generally get what they ask for or want when it comes to news and television and the more sensational the better. If that’s a left right issue I’m unaware of it.
Anyway, sorry for my poor communication skills yesterday, I’m out of practice. Talk to you all again soon! I swam 2 miles this morning and I’m bushed.
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lms:
Sorry about the confusion yesterday re Jenner vs the child.
No worries.
I guess I don’t know how you know this.
Suppose eating disorders were celebrated culturally as a perfectly legitimate dietary/lifestyle “choice” that should be respected and validated by everyone, and anyone who claimed it was a sickness that should be treated rather than indulged was excoriated as a bigot. Do you imagine a young girl with bulimia would be more or less likely get help in overcoming her disorder than she would be in a culture (such as we have now) that recognizes it as a disorder that can be overcome with proper counseling?
People generally get what they ask for or want when it comes to news and television and the more sensational the better. If that’s a left right issue I’m unaware of it.
I don’t think that is a left/right issue. As I said a couple of times, the left/right issue is the movement to culturally legitimize transgenderism as a perfectly valid lifestyle choice, and in the process deny the biological reality of the male/female dichotomy.
I don’t understand the attraction some people have to the Khardashians, hoarders, mountain men or naked survivalists,…
I share your bewilderment, except for the last one. The attraction of pretty much anything with the word “naked” in the title is to me self evident.
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Lol Scott,
The attraction of pretty much anything with the word “naked” in the title is to me self evident.
Well of course, except my husband said they don’t actually show any naked parts………….they’re blurred out. False advertising?
As I said a couple of times, the left/right issue is the movement to culturally legitimize transgenderism as a perfectly valid lifestyle choice,
I understand this, I’m talking about a different aspect. I’m talking about the media coverage, in particular re Jenner. I agree it’s both sad and dangerous to legitimize gender changes as a common practice, although I do think there are actual instances of biological mistakes being made that could be corrected.
It’s too bad there are so many confusing issues for children these days. It was much easier growing up when I did in many ways………….it was simpler. And yet, when I think of the opportunities my girls have had compared to the ones I had…….I get a little fuzzy on the whole issue again……:)
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lms:
False advertising?
Yes, indeed. I watched it once only to discover that fact.
BTW, I’m out for a while. Number 2 graduation ceremony is in a couple hours.
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Have fun and congrats to # 2!
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lms/McWing:
Thanks (re #2)
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Way to go, number 2!
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I wonder where transgenderism should fit on the scale. Is it like an eating disorder which is potentially fatal, or like body dysmorphia which is more of an ongoing emotional issue? Ultimately, if we aren’t going to stop the crazy guy who wants to have constant plastic surgery so he looks like a cat, or the woman who wants to look like a Barbie doll, I don’t see us doing anything about folks who want to go through a sex change unless they want help dealing with the urges because they are conflicted about it.
I guess the guy who likes certain things generally considered “feminine” versus the guy who wants to be surgically turned into a woman is like the difference between the chick who gets a tattoo on her ankle and the chick who gets tattoos over every inch of her body. Ultimately, it’s no more natural to be tattooed into an entirely different skin than it is to change genders, and perhaps no better for your future business career. I just think things that fall under the umbrella of individual expression are going to tend to be normalized.
Which doesn’t bother me that much. What tends to bother me is the companion part, which is where you can’t even say it frickin’ weird for Bruce Jenner to decide to spend his twilight years as a woman. Free expression, sure, that’s great, and I’m not going to stop him, but it’s really frickin’ weird. Just like people who tattoo their faces.
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Kevin:
I just think things that fall under the umbrella of individual expression are going to tend to be normalized.
Sure, but the basic question remains unanswered: What legitimately falls under that umbrella? What is the line separating “individual expression” that should be culturally validated from emotional disorders that should be treated by medical professionals?
If there is any relevant difference between a man who wants to cut off his penis so he can live like a woman and a man who wants to remove his own eyes so that he can live like a blind person, I don’t know what it is. If we as a culture are unwilling to celebrate the latter as a legitimate lifestyle “choice” that needs to be validated by the culture (and I hope we still are), then we should be equally unwilling to do so with the former. Conversely, if we do celebrate the former as a culturally validated example of “individual expression”, then it won’t be long before we do the same with the latter. That is what puts the “progress” in progressivism.
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” What is the line separating “individual expression” that should be culturally validated from emotional disorders that should be treated by medical professionals? ”
Legitimately is a loaded word. I think most such disorders (transgenderism, body dysmorphic disorder) are like super-severe cases of OCD and should be regarded as such, but I just don’t think that’s what’s going to happen. I think the only distinction between the transabled and the transgendered is going to be one of fighting for public assistance funds. And I imagine there will be a lot of that even with the transgendered. Otherwise, all such forms of body dysmorphia are going to be tolerated, the line only being drawn when you feel I should be forced to be blind or be a woman or whatever. I think what will happen is going to be the latter: we’re going to generally (not everybody, ever, but enough) celebrate the transabled and transgendered alike. But there will be an extended time of “no, these are totally different” until it becomes “well, why shouldn’t a guy be able to amputate his hand if he wants?”
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HI Kevin……..like you I’m not particularly bothered by these things either as long as it’s adults doing them. I figure it’s their life.
I remember telling my children if they came home with a tattoo, as long as they lived under our roof, they could count on the locks being changed the next day and their “stuff” would be in the garage waiting for them.
It worked with the girls, but not my son. Although he waited until he moved out to get his tattoos. The girls both thank me now and are happy they don’t have them. Who knew???
I think when minors are involved that Scott has a point. Perhaps we’ve normalized all of this a little too much and given children options they don’t really need and can be quite harmful to them. I’m not completely convinced it’s all because of the culture warriors on the left though.
And…….I’d much prefer the Bruce Jenner from the Wheaties Box than the one we have now, but nobody asked me! I feel a little sorry for his daughters.
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In Madrid NM there is a motorcycle shop owned by a Viet Nam vet who was still a hard muscled 6’3″ 9 years ago.
The vet had sex reassignment surgery, I think in Europe, about 25 years ago.
I wouldn’t think of criticizing her to her face, or otherwise. Scott is surely right about minors, though.
Kev, if you did not read closely, I think the designation “hate” crimes is an abortion of a definition, the only purpose of which is to allow enhanced indictments and admit grisly irrelevant “character evidence” at trial to prejudice the jury with smoke and mirrors. Prosecutors and cops love it.
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Mark:
I wouldn’t think of criticizing her to her face, or otherwise.
I think the question we are facing is not whether transgenders should be criticized for their choices, but rather whether those choices should be celebrated.
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