Morning Report – lots of conflicting data 5/15/14

Posted on May 15, 2014 by Brent Nyitray

Morning Report

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1881.2 -4.1 -0.22%
Eurostoxx Index 3195.1 -15.4 -0.48%
Oil (WTI) 101.9 -0.5 -0.44%
LIBOR 0.226 0.001 0.22%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.23 0.152 0.19%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.51% -0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 107 0.3
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.6 0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.17

 

Markets are lower this morning after Wal-Mart missed. Bonds and MBS are up.
Very mixed bag of economic data this morning:
  • Empire Manufacturing 19.01 vs 6 expected (indicates strong economy)
  • Consumer Price Index .3 vs .3 expected (doesn’t tell you anything)
  • Initial Jobless Claims 297k vs 320k expected (great number – indicates strong economy)
  • Industrial Production down .6% vs expectations of flat (lousy number – indicates weakness)
  • Capacity Utilization of 78.6% vs 79.1% (hideous number – indicates weakness)
FWIW, the bond market is taking its cue from the weak industrial numbers and the Wal-Mart miss. Speaking of which – the 10 year bond yield is now pushing 2.5% – LOs if you have any customers who missed their chance to refi last fall, wake them up. The market just let them back in. Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.

Stonegate Mortgage released their earnings this morning, and they missed on the top line and the bottom line.
Stonegate has been an acquisitive company, so doing apples-to-apples comparisons in order to divine organic growth is difficult. They wrote down their MSR book by $8 million. They have a conference call at 11:00 am (877) 303-5863 if people are interested.. The stock is down a few percent on the open.
FHA is looking for ways to expand credit and has unveiled its “Blueprint for Access.” It is a designed to first time homebuyers, where the borrower goes through a counseling program before buying a home. If they complete the program, they get 50 bps off their upfront FHA mortgage insurance premium and receive a 10 bp reduction in their annual FHA mortgage insurance premium. If they have no serious DQs in their first two years, they get an additional 15 bp reduction in MIP fees. More info will be released in the summer and fall.

Filed under: Morning Report |

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21 Responses

  1. Michigoose, on May 15, 2014 at 8:50 am said:

    Frist!

    John/bannedagain was talking about the bond yields last night on PL. He’s not too copacetic, either.

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  2. Brent Nyitray, on May 15, 2014 at 9:20 am said:

    This move caught pretty much everyone by surprise…. The conventional wisdom is often wrong…

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    • ScottC, on May 15, 2014 at 9:23 am said:

      Brent:

      This move caught pretty much everyone by surprise…

      10 yield now below 2.50%. Seems totally inexplicable to me. (And, apparently, everyone else on the street that is short.)

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  3. I'm Now Kevin's Biatch, on May 15, 2014 at 9:22 am said:

    Sublime.

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  4. I'm Now Kevin's Biatch, on May 15, 2014 at 9:26 am said:

    Giggle.

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  5. I'm Now Kevin's Biatch, on May 15, 2014 at 9:37 am said:

    One more.

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  6. lmsinca, on May 15, 2014 at 9:46 am said:

    I acted as my own advocate last night in a little friendly 3 gym swim meet. I not only won my 1.5 mile race against women in the 55 to 65 age group, I beat the men too, but we didn’t tell them. My trainer called me this morning with that news. I won a 5 week free training session. I took 5 minutes off my best time so far.

    The market moves in mysterious ways!

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  7. jnc4p, on May 15, 2014 at 9:55 am said:

    Congrats lmsinca!

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  8. Michigoose, on May 15, 2014 at 9:59 am said:

    Good job, Lulu!

    This, despite the early time, wins for snark of the day on PL AFAIC. It was in response to someone complaining about the Koch brothers funding advertisements in states they don’t live in (or in which they don’t live).

    NoVAHockey
    10:52 AM EDT

    did that mean commercial force you to vote R?

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  9. I'm Now Kevin's Biatch, on May 15, 2014 at 10:00 am said:

    Wow Lms, congrats! I can’t imagine swimming a mile and a half.

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  10. Michigoose, on May 15, 2014 at 10:00 am said:

    Lulu:

    Five minutes over a 1.5 mile swim is a HUGE jump. Wow!!!!!

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  11. lmsinca, on May 15, 2014 at 10:02 am said:

    Thanks jnc, the meet was part of the practice run up to a mini triathlon the gyms are sponsoring in the fall. I probably won’t do that because I hate running but last night was a kick. I swim so I don’t have to run………….LOL

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  12. jnc4p, on May 15, 2014 at 10:05 am said:

    If you have managed to avoid knee, shoulder or back injuries so far, I’d recommend trying to maintain that record.

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  13. lmsinca, on May 15, 2014 at 10:07 am said:

    McWing, I’m a distance swimmer so it’s not that tough. Put me in a sprint and I struggle. I usually swim a mile at least three times a week, sometimes four. They let us pick our strokes and I’ve been swimming a lot this past year so my trainer and I mapped out my plan and it worked. I’ve also been doing a lot of endurance and strength training at the gym, including weight lifting, so I’m just really strong for my age right now. Being injury free helps too (knock on wood!).

    Thanks everyone………….I may not be going to the Olympics but I’ve still got it!

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  14. lmsinca, on May 15, 2014 at 10:10 am said:

    jnc, I fought a back injury for 7 years but my trainer helped me work through it. I started with her in Sept of last year and my back never even hurts anymore and I have no numbness in my leg like I used to have. Being sick two years ago lit a fire under me to get and remain healthy……………..and here I am!

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    • markinaustin, on May 15, 2014 at 2:29 pm said:

      That is a great accomplishment, LMS.

      One of my friends is dying from ALS and another from throat or larynx cancer that is inoperable so every time someone on “our” side [of 65] beats back the Grim Reaper I rejoice.

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  15. Brent Nyitray, on May 15, 2014 at 10:31 am said:

    So much for the “it was a couple of rogue agents in Cincinnati and Washington had nothing to do with it” story…

    http://www.judicialwatch.org/document-archive/jw1559-001689/

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