Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | Percent | |
| S&P Futures | 1454.8 | 3.4 | 0.23% |
| Eurostoxx Index | 2553.3 | -4.6 | -0.18% |
| Oil (WTI) | 92.97 | 1.0 | 1.13% |
| LIBOR | 0.364 | -0.004 | -1.02% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | 79.5 | -0.015 | -0.02% |
| 10 Year Govt Bond Yield | 1.71% | 0.00% | |
| RPX Composite Real Estate Index | 194.5 | -0.2 |
Markets are up slightly on no real news. Caterpillar issued a profit warning based a drop in capital expenditures from the miners, which is a bad sign for the world economy, particularly China. Nevertheless, commodities are up this morning. Bonds and MBS are up small.
The S&P / Case-Schiller index showed a 1.2% annual increase in July. They note the recent strength of the housing market and that inventory is down. FWIW, the strategist at Radar Logic (the publisher of the RPX index) believes the strength is a head fake due to the large amount of shadow inventory. One big question regarding shadow inventory is how much has been picked over? Is the remaining shadow inventory the least salable garbage that nobody wants? If so, will its liquidation matter that much to prices? How much of it is vacant dilapidated blight in places like Detroit and Toledo, which will never sell and will probably get demolished?
Chart: Case-Schiller:
The Romney campaign has released its plan for the housing market. The most significant departure from the Obama administration is an end to REO-to-rentals. A President Romney, observing that a ton of money has been raised to invest in resi, would simply sell the property as opposed to using various strategies like REO to rental to keep it off the market. He would end TBTF Fan and Fred (he doesn’t say how) and he would usher in “sensible, but not overly complex financial regulation to allow banks to approve loans to families with good credit rather than rejecting their mortgage applications.” I take it the last statement means we will finally learn what the government considers a “qualified mortgage.” Basically, the plan boils down to “hit the bid, stop trying to manipulate the real estate market, and make some decisions on how we are going to regulate the banks.”
RBS has been implicated in the LIBOR scandal, along with Barclay’s. This time, it looks like RBS was not simply falsely reporting LIBOR during the financial crisis to prevent a bank run, it was doing it over a longer period to benefit positions. Regulators might let the first case slide; they certainly won’t let the second one.
Yet another unintended consequence of ZIRP – the death of the “free” checking account.
Filed under: Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Will everyone who was not rigging LIBOR or didn’t know that it was being done, please raise their hand? (to save time)
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“Consumer Reports is not recommending the high-end extended range electric Fisker Karma. In fact, the auto division of Consumer Reports says the Karma is full of flaws including a “badly-designed touch-screen system makes the dash controls an ergonomic disaster.” The Karma score of 57 out of a possible 100 makes it among the poorest performing vehicles of the 311 reviewed by Consumer Reports.
This is the latest black eye for the Karma, a $107,000 luxury EV that has faced delays, a battery recall and scathing criticism for Fisker taking a $529 million loan from the Federal government to develop the Karma and then building the car in Finland. The company says it eventually plans to build vehicles in the United States. Since last December, Fisker has sold more then 1,000 Karma models.
It’s hard to see the reputation of the Karma substantially improving after reading Consumer Reports take on the luxury EV. CR says “Despite the car’s huge dimensions, it’s very cramped inside. The over complicated controls are frustrating and it’s hard to see out. When it’s running, the gasoline engine has an unrefined roar. And the Karma’s heavy weight affects agility and performance, as the Karma lacks the oomph you expect.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49159024
Well, at least we lowered the unemployment rate in Finland, so it’s not a total loss!
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From Greg’s Morning Roundup
* Elizabeth Warren hits back at Indian attacks: She’s up with a new ad that takes on the accusations about her Native American heritage with unusual directness; it features her talking directly to the camera, clarifying that she never received any benefits as a result of her background. Also note the pivot to her message about fighting for ordinary families.”
The next ad will feature her looking at the camera and swearing she never received any benefit from pretending to be an attorney.
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I actually kind of like the REO to rental program because of all the people the government will have to hire to make sure the houses haven’t been sold.
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It’s a blogger over at Legal Insurrection — a Cornell law professor — who broke the “i only play an attorney” story. he’s been pushing the Indian thing too.
doing the job old media can’t — or won’t — do.
this is the what an adversarial press is supposed to do.
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I would say that Warren has an Obama problem, namely that because my motivations are pure, it follows the everything I do is right regardless of the law.
Now we can guess why she refused to release more tax returns. Most likely because they show her receiving income from her law practice in previous years.
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And that’s a huge problem. Because of where they want to go. I submit that their motivations are not pure.
From Forbes:
Edit — I should add that I don’t think R/R go far enough in protecting negative liberties.
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I have a couple of things this morning. Nate Silver goes over all the numbers again. He talks a lot of statistics, too many for me, but then goes on to this which I thought might interest some of you Gary Johnson voters.
But there should also be little doubt that Americans are tuning into the presidential race earlier, and that they are becoming more partisan, two trends that lock them into their candidate choices sooner and reduce late-stage volatility. And an increasing number of Americans are taking advantage of early voting — which is already under way in some states — meaning that they cast their ballot sooner in an entirely literal sense.
Next, and related, there are few undecided voters this year. On average among national polls, about 7 percent of voters either say they are undecided, or that they will vote for a third-party candidate — the same percentage as in 2004, when voters committed early to Mr. Bush or Mr. Kerry. The figures are slightly lower than at a comparable point in 2008, and considerably lower than in 2000.
By the way, I am intentionally lumping undecided voters and potential votes for third-party candidates together. Some voters who are not thrilled with the major-party choices may name a third-party candidate when a pollster gives them the option, but then grudgingly vote Democrat or Republican for fear of wasting their votes otherwise. For this reason, polls generally overstate the standing of third-party candidates, and for forecasting purposes it may be proper to treat ostensible third-party voters as de facto undecideds.
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And then there’s this. I keep telling you guys if you want entitlement cuts, Obama’s your man.
Obama May Do Social Security Reform During Lame Duck Session, Senate Democrats Worry
Concern is mounting among some Senate Democrats that President Barack Obama will make a deal with Senate Republicans during the lame-duck session that would result in changes to the benefit structure of Social Security.
[A snipped paragraph about how Obama said nice things before the AARP about what he’s “open” to doing — without making a single promise.]
But the Vermont Independent worried that all of this could be posturing for the lame-duck session immediately after the election, when lawmakers are expected to rush to find another “grand bargain” on tax and entitlement reform to stave off the so-called fiscal cliff.
“That’s exactly what’s going to happen,” Sanders said of Social Security being on the proverbial table, “Unless someone of us stops it — and a number of us are working very hard on this — that’s exactly what will happen. Everything being equal, unless we stop it, what will happen is there will be a quote-unquote grand bargain after the election in which the White House, some Democrats will sit down with Republicans, they will move to a chained CPI.”
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lms
It’s ok because his motives will be pure.
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but a chained CPI still increases the benefit, albeit at a slower rate.
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Nova, do you think Republicans have a better shot at privatizing SS? All I’m saying is if you want a cut in benefits, albeit not as big as you want, the Dems are the ones to give it to you. I’m not arguing for or against it either way, although it will soon affect us personally, just saying what I’ve said before and why.
John, I’ve met very few politicians whose motives were pure and I don’t count Obama in that select group, although I admit I haven’t met him. Our daughter did though when he made a trip to Golden, CO a couple of weeks ago. She shook his hand and said he gives a great speech and is really skinny.
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“and is really skinny.”
he’s still smoking. i’m not sure that’s even an open secret in town anymore.
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BTW, my daughter just turned me on to this free for today kindle book, so I just picked it up.
THE SIMPLE TRUTH: BP’s Macondo Blowout’ by J. A. Turley
Anyone know if that’s Jonathan Turley?
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he’s still smoking
That’s too bad. I wouldn’t wish that habit on anyone. When I first got sick this spring they thought I might have lung cancer, even though I’ve never smoked, and after working in hospice for 20 years I was scared to death. I had to wait three weeks for a lung biopsy to come back……………….nerve wracking. Luckily, my lungs are perfect for a smoggy CA girl…………….lol
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lms:
He’s John Turley, but a different one (petroleum and oceanic engineering degrees).
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Lulu – I like “chained” CPI b/c it is more accurate.
Kelley – did you watch the end of the game last night?
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“lmsinca, on September 25, 2012 at 9:54 am said:
Nova, do you think Republicans have a better shot at privatizing SS? All I’m saying is if you want a cut in benefits, albeit not as big as you want, the Dems are the ones to give it to you.”
I’d dispute that based on the record from 2009 – 2010. As I’ve said before, restraints on the growth of entitlement spending (no one is talking about real cuts) requires divided government. It doesn’t happen with one party control, regardless of which party it is.
There’s no evidence from his actions to date or his budgets that President Obama supports cutting or reforming entitlements, or spending in general. It’s all rhetorical and entirely dependent on having a Republican Congress. If there is Democratic one party control of both houses of Congress, it will quickly fall by the wayside.
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JNC is so obviously correct about the failure of each party to deliver fiscal responsibility when it had the chance in the last decade. Mixed government could still work in theory, but in fact it no longer does, either. Did you read old Walter Pincus today?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/the-us-senate-a-dysfunctional-day-in-the-life/2012/09/24/eefbe6e4-05a6-11e2-afff-d6c7f20a83bf_print.html
On many issues I prefer deadlock to legislation. On the core congressional issue of budget/appropriations I want to see some responsibility taken by both parties. I see the Rs as more at fault now, but the Ds were in 2009-10. Neither party, given control, even does its basic chores. Too much time fundraising and campaigning, and too little time in boring and hard committee work. In any case, can you imagine either a Maxine Waters or a Louis Gohmert doing hard boring committee work? Too many idiots with too much time on their hands. Rs made it easy for their idiots by “adopting” Ryan budget without any committee meetings at all. Utterly stupid governance, like a banana republic. And Harry Reid is a complete waste of time.
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Mark–
YES!!!! That whole game was a cluster, especially coming on the heels of the Ravens game Sunday night. The NFL desperately needs to come to an agreement with the refs, because the players are running roughshod over the replacement refs, and calls like that last one are the reason why.
And then to have to call the players back in order to kick the PAT. . . hapless.
I didn’t really care who won, since the Seahawks are one of my {{{{heart}}}} teams and I own a piece of the Pack, but that was ludicrous.
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And speaking of the refs, this is a lovely example of being able to see politics in absolutely everything.
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jnc
As I’ve said before, restraints on the growth of entitlement spending (no one is talking about real cuts) requires divided government. It doesn’t happen with one party control, regardless of which party it is.
I’m not talking about Dems running the entire show. I’m talking about the same situation we had when the first round of talks on a grand bargain were initiated. I think it will happen this time but it would need similar dynamics with a divided Senate and House and Obama as President. That’s my prediction anyway. I’m not saying whether I agree with the cuts or not as I don’t know exactly what they would entail, most good ideas get perverted along the way.
If it ends up being Romney, a Dem Senate and an R House…………….it won’t happen, imo.
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michi
Re J Turley…………..my daughter just emailed that he’s an alum from her school, CO School of Mines. One of her friends recommended it.
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Mark
On many issues I prefer deadlock to legislation. On the core congressional issue of budget/appropriations I want to see some responsibility taken by both parties. I see the Rs as more at fault now, but the Ds were in 2009-10. Neither party, given control, even does its basic chores. Too much time fundraising and campaigning, and too little time in boring and hard committee work. In any case, can you imagine either a Maxine Waters or a Louis Gohmert doing hard boring committee work? Too many idiots with too much time on their hands. Rs made it easy for their idiots by “adopting” Ryan budget without any committee meetings at all. Utterly stupid governance, like a banana republic. And Harry Reid is a complete waste of time.
I agree with every word of that “rant”. Not only that but Waters was found innocent of all ethics violations and now if the House switches hands she will be in charge of at least one finance committee. I didn’t care for her when she was an LA Council Woman.
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“lovely example of being able to see politics in absolutely everything.”
ugh. that’s one of my biggest complaints. not everything is political.
my chief complaint is the taxpayer funding of stadiums. and the caps on compensation. so funding of stadiums and player compensation. and the college feeder system. Amongst my complains … i’ll come in again.
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lms:
I was wondering when I saw that petroleum engineering degree. Very cool!
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not everything is political.
Nope. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. . . and a strike is just a strike
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Reminds me a bit of Romney refusing to detail his tax plan:
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Mark:
Check this out.
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This is pretty good:
“Now That My Campaign Is Over, I’d Like To Talk To You All About The Church Of Latter-Day Saints
By Mitt Romney
Republican Nominee For President Of The United States
September 19, 2012 | ISSUE 48•38 | More Commentary”
http://www.theonion.com/articles/now-that-my-campaign-is-over-id-like-to-talk-to-yo,29611/?ref=auto
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From the President’s UN speech today
“We have taken these positions because we believe that freedom and self-determination are not unique to one culture. These are not simply American values or Western values; they are universal values. And even as there will be huge challenges to come with the transition to democracy, I am convinced that ultimately government of the people, by the people, and for the people is more likely to bring about the stability, prosperity, and individual opportunity that serve as a basis for peace in our world.”
I hope he doesn’t actually believe that, because it’s mostly wrong.
In my opinion these are uniquely Western values, however poorly we may live up to them. Not that other cultures in the future might not embrace them, as Japan has for instance, but they are not universal.
“The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam. But to be credible, those who condemn that slander must also condemn the hate we see in the images of Jesus Christ that are desecrated or churches that are destroyed, or the Holocaust that is denied.
Let us condemn incitement against Sufi Muslims and Shia pilgrims. It’s time to heed the words of Gandhi, “Intolerance is itself a form of violence and an obstacle to the growth of a true democratic spirit.”
To call for tolerance among religions is to miss the whole point of religions in the first place. If mine isn’t right and yours wrong, why bother?
Now of course that is a different point than elevating religion to an equal level in society with civil government as happens everywhere in the Middle East.
It would have made much more sense for Obama to have called for the elimination of religious speech from political discourse as long as he was tilting at windmills, but that might be too 21st century for him or us yet.
‘Among Israelis and Palestinians, the future must not belong to those who turn their backs on the prospect of peace. Let us leave behind those who thrive on conflict, those who reject the right of Israel to exist.
The road is hard, but the destination is clear: a secure Jewish state of Israel and an independent, prosperous Palestine. “
Unfortunately that’s not what the people who live there want, as we see embodied over and over again in the leaders they choose for themselves.
“Make no mistake: A nuclear-armed Iran is not a challenge that can be contained. It would threaten the elimination of Israel, the security of Gulf nations, and the stability of the global economy. It risks triggering a nuclear arms race in the region, and the unraveling of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
That’s why a coalition of countries is holding the Iranian government accountable. And that’s why the United States will do what we must to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.”
He means the treaty that Israel refuses to sign and the nuclear arms races that they are quite happily winning about 400 to none so far.
“But when you strip all away, people everywhere long for the freedom to determine their destiny; the dignity that comes with work; the comfort that comes with faith; and the justice that exists when governments serve their people and not the other way around.”
Nope, that’s the old everybody is just like us but in funny clothes idea that gets us into trouble every decade somewhere in the world.
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YIKES
The one paragraph should read
“In my opinion these are uniquely Western values, however poorly we may live up to them. Not that other cultures in the future might not embrace them, as Japan has for instance, but they are not universal”
Hopefully you are so used to my endless chatter by now, that you interpret my mistakes automatically
__________
JNC: I fixed the original. You can edit your comments after the fact.
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jnc:
Being a resident of Utah, I was laughing out loud before I even clicked on that link. Whoever wrote that is either (1) a Mormon, or (2) knows them very, very well.
That’s a classic!
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Oh, Don Juan, your cynic is coming through! Just enjoy if for the rhetoric, and pretend that you’ve got a unicorn sitting there next to you, and a rainbow-farting bunny and all is well with the world.
Hopefully you are so used to my endless chatter by now, that you interpret my mistakes automatically
The scary part is that I had to read that sentence three times before I caught the mistake. Maybe we’re all getting used to each other’s literary tics!
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We are the world?
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“rainbow-farting bunny”
you saw one! don’t let it get away. that’s going power the car of the future.
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We are the world. . .
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There is a rehearsal clip that I have seen where QJ is not yet conducting the massed group of pop stars + Willie. Ray Charles is conducting from the piano. At one point he picks out Daryl Hall and says “you the only one on pitch” and makes him sing it as a demonstration to the others. “Play off that, but that’s where it begins”. On this QJ conducted video, who is the blond next to Lauper? Linda Eastman? If you ever needed confirmation that Dylan could never sing – ah, well, Hendrix sang Watchtower and Clapton sang Knocking at Heavens Door so we really never had to listen to him.
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Hey, that’s my bunny. I gave him a vacation day from running my air conditioner for the past 2 1/2 months. He slipped away, not happy with his rations I guess.
It’s actually under 95 today for the first time in a lot of days in a row.
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NoVA:
If you look very, very closely you can see the rainbow. . .
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that’s no ordinary rabbit.
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Wow havent seen that in so long
Michael Jackon was still black (relatively)
Kenny Rogers had his old face
Kim Carnes, Huey Lewis and Cyndy Lauper were relevant
Dylan was intelligible
Billy Joel was married to a woman his own age
Steve Perry played himself and not Arnel Pineda
Quincy Jones was more famous than his daughter
Kenny Loggins hadn’t gotten dumped by his soulmate
Willie Nelson only looked 80
Bruce Springsteen was 16
Ah the 80s!
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it’s Kim Carnes. Remember Bette Davis Eyes?
I forgot one, Ray Charles hadn’t fathered his last kid yet.
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“bannedagain5446, on September 25, 2012 at 12:21 pm said:
From the President’s UN speech today
“We have taken these positions because we believe that freedom and self-determination are not unique to one culture. These are not simply American values or Western values; they are universal values. And even as there will be huge challenges to come with the transition to democracy, I am convinced that ultimately government of the people, by the people, and for the people is more likely to bring about the stability, prosperity, and individual opportunity that serve as a basis for peace in our world.””
That part of the speech could just as easily have been given by George W. Bush. And the analysis is just as wrong on the universality of Western values. People in the Islamic world don’t aspire to be just like us.
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jnc:
You know that, and I know that, but the smartest people in the country don’t run for office, they blog!
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“bannedagain5446, on September 25, 2012 at 2:06 pm said:
…
Ah the 80s!”
Last night ESPN classic ran Battle of the Network stars from 1981. Howard Cosell was the moderator. It was pretty funny.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Network_Stars
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Mark:
This one’s for you:
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Thanx, Kelley.
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http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/09/barack-obama-united-nations
DJ – I think this is an effective response to your criticism of BHO’s UN speech. It considers the audiences. The diplomats in the room have all voted for universal human rights. The domestic American audience wants the cheerleading for freedom of expression. The allies in the advanced nations will all be reassured. The Islamist street will never hear the speech except through a filter, so there is no need to address them in their terms.
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And this one, too:
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“Geithner Was ‘Bailouter’ in Chief During Crisis: Bair”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/49165989
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Paul Krugman makes a liar out of Paul Krugman again:
“Josh Lehner does something I’ve been meaning to do: he compares US economic performance since the financial crisis with other episodes of major financial crisis. And guess what? We actually look better than most (sorry about the small print):’
Wait what? Where did the Depression go? It was here just a few months ago:
“Paul Krugman: We Could End This Depression Right Now”
http://www.alternet.org/story/155538/paul_krugman%3A_we_could_end_this_depression_right_now
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Mark:
You’re welcome. There’s some amazing guitar on both of those!
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