TGIF! Silly songs from my childhood

My dad had a couple of Tom Lehrer albums that were off limits to the kids.  Naturally, I memorized the lot by age 6.

 

Imagine a 5-year-old singing this to a group of her parents’ friends at a cocktail party.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTfuGeKPsZM

 

Or skipping in the park singing this one:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hf-eIgFJg4w&feature=related

 

And what parents wouldn’t be proud of their youngin singing this one in Sunday school:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDeRYmB4t6Q

 

Enjoy the weekend!

Intent and Murder Charges

There’s a localish murder trial that’s been getting a lot of attention due to the nature of the crime and those involved.

Basically, an on-again, off-again relationship between two rich attractive UVA athletes ended with him beating her to death.

You can read about the trail here.

He was convicted of 2nd degree murder and I’m pissed about it.  The jury decided that he didn’t mean to beat her to death.  Just beat her.   He received 25 years for the murder charge and 1 year for stealing her laptop after the fact.  (I don’t remember why he did that).   They opted for 2nd degree instead of 1st degree (life in prison) because of the intent.   Granted, I was following this mostly through radio broadcast updates when the alarm when off in the morning or on the ride home from work, so I don’t know all the details.   But my concern is more general anyway.

How is kicking in a door and beating your girlfriend to death, if you went there just to rough her up, any different that waiting for a shot at 500 yards with a scoped rifle?

In my opinion, there isn’t one.  Not any meaningful one anyway.  He wanted to hurt her and his actions resulted in her death.    I don’t understand why his intent is somehow a mitigating factor.   The intent was to cause harm.

I’m sure I’m missing something here.

 

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1365.3 2.4 0.18%
Eurostoxx Index 2519.3 11.2 0.45%
Oil (WTI) 108.3 0.5 0.44%
LIBOR 0.4906 0.000 0.00%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 78.505 -0.130 -0.17%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.98% -0.02%

Slow news day.  Stock futures are up slightly as bonds and oil continue to rally. No economic data this morning until 10:00 when we get Michigan Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales.

Radar Logic released its December Monthly Housing Report yesterday. The report notes that prices declined 6.8% while transaction count increased 19.6%. While the transaction count was boosted by technical factors relating to the homebuyer tax credit expiration, there is a sense that sellers are becoming more realistic and are willing to hit bids from bargain-hunters. Is this is the beginning of the Great Capitulation? The report notes that the recently-listed RPX futures are indicating the bottom is here and that prices should start rising in summer of 2013.

A tiff between Bank of America and Fannie Mae? The bank will no longer send new originations to Fannie Mae and will either send them to Freddie Mac or retain them on their own balance sheet. Fannie Mae’s lawsuit regarding shoddy origination at Countrywide presumably drove this decision. Does this mean we are finally going to have a national discussion over the American Dream Commitment?

A slew of important economic data will be released next week with Durable Goods, Case-Schiller, Consumer Confidence, GDP, Personal Income, Personal Spending, Construction Spending, ISM and more.

Bits & Pieces (Thursday Night Open Mic)

"Hey, are you in there? Hello? I'm feeling better now. Really."

This is a great blog about The Overlook Hotel from Kubrick’s The Shining. It’s where I got the image above, and where I first ran across the image below:

A children's menu from The Overlook Hotel, re: Kubrick's The Shining.

The U.N. wants control over the Internet. I’m sure that’s going to go over well!

DRM in HTML5. That sounds like a great idea!

Thiotimoline is a substance so water-soluble, it actually dissolves before it comes in contact with water.

A Sci-Fi Horror movie shot i and around Chernobyl:

That’s it for me — KW

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1355.9 0.0 0.00%
Eurostoxx Index 2513.0 -6.0 -0.24%
Oil (WTI) 106.31 0.0 0.03%
LIBOR 0.4906 -0.001 -0.20%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 78.971 -0.254 -0.32%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.03% 0.02%

Markets are flat on a better than expected jobs report. Initial Jobless claims were 351k vs 355k expected, and continuing claims dropped to 3,392k vs 3,455k expected. The FHFA House Price Index will be released at 10:00 am and the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index will be released at 11:00. Bonds and MBS are flat-to-slightly lower.

Freddie Mac released its February Economic Outlook yesterday. Punch line: Housing is recovering gradually. Interesting statistic from the report regarding affordability:  ”At the end of 2011, a family earning the median family income had almost double the income necessary to qualify for a conventional loan covering 80% of a median-priced existing singly-family home.” Mortgage applications rose by 4.1% in January, and 80% of those were for refinancings. We are entering a seasonally strong period for house prices – it will be interesting to see if low rates and low prices finally pull people off the sidelines.

For a glass-half empty view, look here. Mark Hanson makes a very good point – that when a stock doesn’t do what it is supposed to do in response to news or events traders will key on that and position accordingly. A market darling that “beats” earnings expectations but doesn’t go up is a great short candidate. Mark makes the same point with housing – we have record low interest rates and affordability, yet housing isn’t going up. Which means it is going lower.

A few years ago, everyone was talking about the yen carry trade. Japanese companies would borrow yen for basically nothing and invest in higher yielding assets overseas, typically in Europe. Traders would watch the Euro / Yen cross rate like hawks, and every time the euro weakened against the yen, world markets would roll over. After the financial crisis drove everyone into Treasuries, people have been wondering when the dollar carry trade would take over. Well, it looks like that day has come. J.P. Morgan has been picking up European MBS to find some yield. While a $72 billion bet on foreign MBS is a drop in the bucket, if JPM is doing it, so is everyone else.

 

Bits & Pieces (Wednesday Night Open Mic)

An Actress of Rare Beauty, Gladys Frazin, from the days of more modest covers of National Police Gazette.

Looking for evidence that we are indeed moving forward as a society, and humanity is progressing nicely? Then, look to the past and National Police Gazette, and contemplate the fact that it finally stopped publishing in 1977. Progress, people. Progress.

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1359.4 -0.7 -0.05%
Eurostoxx Index 2526.7 -14.9 -0.59%
Oil (WTI) 106.1 -0.2 -0.14%
LIBOR 0.4916 -0.001 -0.20%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.286 0.178 0.23%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.05% -0.01%

Markets are weaker this morning on a weaker than expected economic report out of Europe and a lousy forecast from Dell. Mortgage applications fell 4.5% for the week ending Feb 17. Existing Home Sales will be released at 10:00 am.

Obama has laid out the broad brush strokes for a corporate tax overhaul. He plans on lowering the statutory rate to 28%, while eliminating loopholes. His plan will benefit domestic manufacturers and he will target the energy sector for more revenues.  It looks like he is proposing some sort of AMT for corporations, with a minimum tax for overseas earnings. The plan will be revenue-enhancing.

Of course, the devil is always in the details, and hopefully the administration is smart enough to draw a distinction between overseas production meant to be sold overseas and outsourcing to cut costs. He could end up hurting US competitiveness if he doesn’t think this through.

The FHFA sent a letter outlining its plan for the GSEs aptly titled “The Next Chapter in a story that Needs an Ending.” It is a strategic document, not a step-by-step plan. They intend to build a new infrastructure for the secondary market, gradually reduce the footprint of Fannie and Freddie, while maintaining foreclosure prevention activities and credit availability.

With the S&P 500 rallying, bonds have sold off a bit, driving best-ex mortgage rates back over 4%. FWIW (and I am not a big technical analysis guy) it appears the March Treasury futures are stuck in a 140-145 range, which implies a yield range of 1.85% to 2.05%. We are again at the top end of that range. As I have mentioned before, the S&P 500 is right up against resistance and looks like it wants to break out. The Fed has been stepping into the MBS market when rates hit these levels, so we’ll see if that continues.

Bits & Pieces (Tuesday Night Open Mic)

"I can tell you exactly how this will look in one hundred years."

Climate Models Need Revising. And those will need revising. And then those will need revising. Because the climate is god-awful complicated and the predictive power of computer modeling on god-awful complicated systems is still in its infancy. Which is why deniers often bring up our inability to accurately predict the weather a few days (sometimes a few hours) in advance: not because climate = weather, but predicting outcomes in both cases is god-awful complicated, and using them for forecasting the future has, at least currently, very little efficacy.

These results are significant as until now projections of the possible effects of predicted climate change have assumed that droughts and heat waves would always have an effect on ecosystems – and that in turn would lead on to carbon level changes leading to more temperature rises and so on. These assumptions may now have to be revisited.

Also in Climate News: Leaked Climate Gate emails are good and wholesome and totally whistleblowingly appropriate, if they are the emails of climate change skeptics. But could one of them be plant?

°°°

The 4 Reasons Why Human Beings Will Never Understand Each Other.

… It’s harder to think that these are human beings who probably don’t arbitrarily decide on a hobby of being wrong about things because it is fun, and that they’re being driven by basic human qualities that we also have, like fear or ego. Or that they feel the need to make larger-than-life monsters and heroes out of real people (throwing away facts to do so) in order to make sense out of the confusing and painful situation our country has been going through (the economy, the release of the Ghost Rider sequel, etc.).

They’re not good reasons, but they are reasons, beyond just “They’re bad people, that’s what bad people do.”

One of the most poorly used words to describe why bad people do what they do is “hate.” Everything from racial attacks to bullying to terrorism to political rhetoric is driven by “hate,” which has pretty much become a catch-all word to cover any kind of conflict.

Unfortunately, sometimes this gives the wrong impression that all the racists, sexists and demagogues are basically the same — they have some kind of burning anger against people who are different and just want to lash out against them. Who knows where it comes from, and who cares?

… But no fucking human being wakes up in the morning and schemes about how they are going to “destroy America” for the sake of evil. No matter how awful you think abortion supporters or opponents are, they’ve convinced themselves that the side they picked is really the right thing to do or, at the very least, they are getting money or positive attention by lobbying for it.

Even people who worship Satan do it because they think it will make them look cool. People do what they do because they think it’s right, or to benefit themselves, or both. Nobody pursues evil like some kind of charitable cause …

And plenty other good points.

•••

A review of Apple’s upcoming release of OS X 10.8 (or Mountain Lion).

No new news on ancient Japanese scrolls that depict the incredible ninja-warrior powers of flatulence. Alas.

A bizarre write-in campaign to keep the Democrats from running anyone against Scott Walker by writing in Scott Walker as his challenger in the primary. How does that work legally? Since Walker cannot run against himself, why not just dismiss the votes clearly intended to sabotage the election? I have a hard time seeing this working.

∞∞∞

A vote for Rick Santorum is a vote against Satan. I’m having a hard time getting the audio through the net nanny, but this does not seem smart.

Also, Rick apparently believes that “pursuit of happiness” exclusively means “doing the will of God”. Given that “pursuit of happiness” was at one point the more specific “right to own property”, I think Santorum has that almost exactly backwards. He’s at least 172° out of phase.

And that’s that for me! — KW

__________________________________

For the Calvin and Hobbes fans: Pants are overrated

– Mike

Morning Report

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1363.6 3.9 0.29%
Eurostoxx Index 2532.8 -17.4 -0.68%
Oil (WTI) 105.04 1.8 1.74%
LIBOR 0.4926 -0.001 -0.10%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 79.145 0.005 0.01%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.03% 0.03%

We have a deal in Greece. Bondholders had to take a slightly bigger haircut – 53% vs 50% already agreed to. The $170 billion will be more than enough for Greece to meet its payment at the end of March. The Eurostoxx index is down slightly on the news – another case of “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”

Are we out of the woods with Greece?  No. Greece intends to hold elections in the next few months, and there is nothing preventing a new government from undoing all of the austerity measures imposed for this deal.

The Chicago Fed released its National Activity Index this morning. It came in at .22, which indicates the economy is growing faster than its historical trend.  An index value of zero means the economy is growing at its historical trend.  Employment and Production were large positive components, while Consumption and Housing were negative components. December was revised higher as well.

The Home Despot reported better than expected earnings this morning, which should be another positive indicator for housing and the economy. Macy’s also reported a strong holiday selling season.

Economic data on tap this week:  Existing Home Sales on Wed, Initial Jobless Claims on Thurs, New Home Sales on Fri.

Sequestering CO2 to get more Oil!

This could be cool.  Clean coal, more oil.

Of course, the coal is filthy, but NRG in TX has a plan to pump the CO2 deep into an old abandoned oil field in S. Texas.  Pump it deep enough, the theory goes, and it won’t come back into the atmosphere.  Here, the greenhouse gas, pumped into the oil bearing formation, will force the remaining oil out of the rock, making it recoverable.

The story also presents the critics, of course – but I thought I would post a “good news” story to begin the week.

And here’s the written story:

http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/02/21/how-biggest-power-plant-in-texas-will-use-pollution-to-pump-oil/

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